The odds of a team coming back from an 0-2 deficit in the NBA playoffs are astronomical.

But just last season, the NBA had two teams come back from such a deficit.

The Utah Jazz won four of the next five games versus the Houston Rockets to advance to the Western Conference Semifinals and the Cleveland Cavaliers came back to beat the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Facing the Boston Celtics in this year’s playoffs, LeBron James and the Cavaliers are staring at their fourth 0-2 deficit in three seasons.

In 2006, the Cavaliers lost the first two games to Detroit before ultimately losing that series in seven games.

In 2007, Cleveland won four straight games against Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals after losing the first two games of that series.

The Cavs were swept by the San Antonio Spurs in the 2007 NBA Finals.

The Boston Celtics have held Cleveland to 33% from the field in taking a commanding lead 2-0 lead in the 2008 Conference Semifinals.

The Celtics have dominated Cleveland by holding LeBron James to 8-of-42 from the field and 0-for-10 from the 3-point line.

Despite leading the league in scoring this season, there are still glaring weaknesses in LeBron’s game. Those weaknesses are being exposed versus Boston, just as they were exposed against the San Antonio Spurs in last year’s NBA Final.

The Spurs held James to 36% from the field last year — completely befuddled him on offense. San Antonio forced James into 23 turnovers over four games. LeBron has committed 17 turnovers in the first two games versus Boston.

The blueprint to stop James is simple — stop him from penetrating to the basket and double-team him on pick-and-rolls.

Make him a jumpshooter.

LeBron is shooting 1-for-27 from outside the paint against Boston.

And unfortunately for him, his team, and their fans — this is nothing new — James is a combined 53-of-154 against Detroit, San Antonio, and Boston the past three seasons after trailing 0-2 and 6-of-29 from the 3-point line.

Either he starts hitting from mid-range and beyond or he and the Cavaliers go home early. Boston won’t make the same mistake Detroit did in last year’s Eastern Conference Final and let James get easy points near the basket.

Led by Defensive Player of the Year and coached by defensive mastermind Tom Thibodeau, the Celtics are too disciplined for that to happen.

Cleveland may win a game or two in this series but I hope James learns from the lessons being taught to him by Boston. He’ll never defeat a championship caliber defense by relying on his ability to get to the hoop.

If he is to take the next step in his development and lead his team to the next level, he must become a better shooter. And there’s no substitute for becoming a great shooter. One has to put in the time. It takes hours and hours of repetition.

After five seasons in the league, it’s clear that James hasn’t devoted himself to that aspect of his game.

While his numbers continue to increase, they are more a reflection of his do-everything role (which must change as well) on the Cavaliers and his ability to get to the basket. That’s not to take anything away from James, he’s an unbelievably talented player and to his credit, he attacks the basket because there are few teams that can keep him from getting there.

But great defensive teams (and he will face many throughout his career) will continue to take away his strengths and expose his weaknesses — weaknesses that box scores and PER are incapable of taking into account.

That’s understandable.

All four players had phenomenal seasons.

LeBron dominated individually.  KG led the Celtics to the largest singe-season turnaround in NBA history.  Kobe led the Lakers to the #1 seed in the NBA’s most competitive conference.  Chris Paul became the first player ever to average 20 points, 10 assists, and 3 steals in a season.

But which player has been the MVP of the postseason thus far?

LeBron James

Cavaliers Regular Season Record:  45-37
Postseason Record:  4-3

LeBron’s Regular Season Statistics:  30 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 48% from the field, 32% from the 3-point line, 71% from the free throw line.

LeBron’s Postseason Statistics:  27 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 44% from the field, 24% from the 3-point line, 71% from the free throw line.

Kobe Bryant

Lakers Regular Season Record:  57-25
Postseason Record:  6-0

Kobe’s Regular Season Statistics:  28 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 46 % from the field, 36% from the 3-point line, 84% from the free throw line.

Kobe’s Postseason Statistics:  34 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 52% from the field, 35% from the 3-point line, 82% from the free throw line.

Kevin Garnett

Boston’s Regular Season Record:  66-16
Postseason Record:  5-3

Garnett’s Regular Season Statistics:  19 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 54% from the field, 0% from the 3-point line, 84% from the free throw line.

Garnett’s Postseason Statistics:  22 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 50% from the field, 100% from the 3-point line, 83% from the free throw line.

Chris Paul

Hornets Regular Season Record:  56-26
Postseason Record:  6-1

Paul’s Regular Season Statistics:  21 points, 4 rebounds, 12 assists, 49% from the field, 37% from the 3-point line, 85% from the free throw line.

Paul’s Postseason Statistics:  24 points, 5 rebounds, 12 assists, 50% from the field, 29% from the 3-point line, 78% from the free throw line.

You be the judge.

For twelve years I’ve watched your evolution as a basketball player and as a person.

From the slam dunk championship, the three consecutive NBA championships, 62 points in 3 quarters, 81 points in one game, countless clutch plays — and now your first Most Valuable Player Award.

I’ve read and listened to innumerable criticisms thrown in your direction.

Phil Jackson called you “uncoachable.”

You were branded as aloof, self-centered, a ball hog, incapable of making those around you better, and more concerned with individual accolades than team success.

Despite your many triumphs on court, it hasn’t always been easy being a fan of yours.

There was the incident in Eagle, Colorado, your feuds with Shaquille, your temper-tantrums towards officials, two first round exits, and last summer’s trade demand.

But through all of that — I defended you to anyone that would read or listen — because I believed that a day like yesterday and a season like this one would come.

You were capable of making your teammates better, if only they showed the potential to improve. You would develop into a leader, when surrounded by teammates who had the desire to play to your standard of excellence.

You would redeem yourself.

And you didn’t let me down.

When surrounded by an improved supporting cast, you led your team to the best record in the most competitive conference in NBA history. You sacrificed some of you individual excellence for the betterment of the team.

You didn’t score 50 points every night, not because you weren’t capable, but because it wasn’t necessary to win.

And that’s been your number one goal all along. To win. To become the greatest player who has ever played — by any means necessary.

Even still, when presented with the greatest individual honor in the game, you gave credit to the people who made it possible — your teammates.

“We have done it together,” Bryant said. “This is us playing as a unit. These guys made me look better than I am.”

Phil Jackson, the man who called you “uncoachable” only four years ago said, “I don’t know anybody who’s ever deserved this trophy more. I don’t know anybody who’s ever worked as hard to accomplish what he’s accomplished.”

Jerry West, the man who brought you to the NBA said, “I just don’t think you find people this competitive who play this game,” he said. “You just don’t. He’s always wanted to be the best, and he is the best today.”

I, for one, am proud of you.

I feel priviledged to have watched your evolution over the past twelve seasons.

I’m happy to see that all of your obvious hard work is beginning to pay off.

I hope this year’s MVP award gives you some semblance of basketball peace and closes the book on twelve tumultous chapters of your career.

Upon winning the award, you remarked that this year has “been an emotional roller coaster. It’s been a heck of a journey.”

The same could be said of your career as a whole.

I believe the best is yet to come.

The Celtics and Cavaliers split their season series 2-2.

Both LeBron James and Kevin Garnett missed one of those games to injury.

James averaged 32 points per game in the three contests he played in. The Cavaliers won two of those three games.

In Boston’s lone regular season victory over the James led Cavaliers, the Cetlics held LeBron to 26 points on 7-for-26 shooting. The Celtics won that game 92-87 on February 27th.

Keys for Boston

1. Stop LeBron James

The San Antonio Spurs held LeBron to 22 points per game and 36% from the field in their NBA Finals sweep over James’ Cavaliers last season.

How did they do it?

By making him a jumpshooter.

Bruce Bowen and Co. kept him out of the paint and shut down Daniel Gibson’s catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities.

The Celtics had the best defense in the league this season. Boston led the NBA in virtually every defensive category and were second in the league in points allowed. Even more impressive is the fact that they accomplished all of that without the luxury of a lock-down defender on the perimeter.

That may came back to haunt them versus LeBron.

James led the league in scoring this season by averaging 30 points per game. LeBron also led in 4th quarter scoring (9.1 pts) and the Cavs had seventeen 4th quarter comebacks.

The Celtics don’t have anyone on the perimeter to defend him one-on-one.

But they do have Defensive Player of the Year Kevin Garnett.

If I was Doc Rivers, I would place KG on LeBron for key stretches in this series. Garnett doesn’t have LeBron’s explosiveness but he can afford to play a step off because James won’t beat the Celtics with his jumpshot.

James outweighes Garnett by twenty pounds but gives up 3 inches to the 9-time All-NBA defender.

KG’s long arms and great hands could disrupt many of James’ forays into the paint.

Is this strategy uncoventional?

Of course.

And KG might be better suited to roam the paint and contest LeBron’s penetration from the weakside. It’s not as if he’ll have to worry about Anderson Varejao or Ben Wallace scoring a ton of points off of LeBron’s drive-and-dish skills.

But if LeBron starts to takeover like he did against Detroit in last year’s playoffs, why not place the best defensive player in the game on the “chosen one?”

Stopping LeBron James is key to Boston’s chances of advancing out of the second round.

It’s the only key.

The term ‘must-win’ is loosely applied in the NBA and should really only be used to describe Game 7’s but I think tonight’s action is one of the rare exceptions.

The Spurs must-win because:

The Hornets blew them out and are gaining confidence by the minute.

Half the battle is the belief you can win.

San Antonio needs to instill some doubt in the Hornets psyche tonight.

David West erupted for 30 points and 9 rebounds in Game 1 but did so with Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto, and Robert Horry defending him. Look for Greg Popovich to place 10-time All-NBA defender Tim Duncan on West tonight. West is quicker than Duncan and Tim runs the risk of getting into early foul trouble but this is a situation where the risks do not outweight the rewards.

San Antonio’s Game 1 loss was closer than the score appears and the odds of Tim Duncan scoring in single digits and grabbing less than ten rebounds in consecutive playoff games are slim to none.

The Magic must-win because:

They won’t win a Game 7 in Detroit. Orlando’s only chance is to finish this series in 6 games.

To do that, they have to take away Detroit’s homecourt advantage.

Rashard Lewis & Hedo Turkoglu averaged 19 and 18 points per in the first round and both players produced in this series’ first game. Each player had 18 points in Orlando’s 91-72 loss on Saturday. The difference in the contest was the lack of production from Dwight Howard.

After averaging 20 points, 18 rebounds, and putting up three consecutive 20 point, 20 rebound performances versus Toronto, Howard was a non-factor against Detroit in Game 1.

Pistons power forward Jason Maxiell chose to tug on Superman’s cape after the first contest.

“He’s has a very strong upper body,” Maxiell said. “But if you get down low and take his legs out, he’s not that powerful.”

Howard responded:

“That’s not true,” Howard said. “Trust me.”

Orlando’s season depends upon Howard making that “truth” reality tonight.

(1) Boston vs. (8) Atlanta

Prediction:  Boston Celtics
Result:  Celtics in 7

No one expected this series to go 7 games but the Hawks proved to be a resilient bunch.

Atlanta did most of their damage by pushing the basketball and getting buckets in transition.  Joe Johnson and Josh Smith led in Atlanta’s three home victories.  Johnson averaged 20 per game and Smith put up 16 points a game in the series.

With Johnson, Smith, newly acquired Mike Bibby, and Rookie of the Year runner-up Al Horford, the Hawks have a promising future.

Even more intriguing is the success that Johnson and Smith had in attacking the Celtics defense.

Up next is a matchup with the NBA’s leading scorer this season, LeBron James.

(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Washington

Prediction:  Washington Wizards
Result:  Cavaliers in 6

I picked the Wizards under the assumption that Gilbert Arenas would be at full strength.

He wasn’t and it may not have mattered if he had been.

LeBron James led the way for the Cavaliers in averaging 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists in this first round series.  The Wizards and Cavs exchanged plenty of words in this one but Washington’s talking amounted to a lot of bark, no bite.  Aside from a few physical fouls, LeBron did virtually whatever he wanted on the court.

That’s a testament to his perseverance and the porous Wizards defense.

King James’ continued development will be tested in the next round when he faces the Boston Celtics defense.  The C’s led the league in virtually ever defensive category and were second in points allowed.

(3) Orlando vs. (6) Toronto

Prediction:  Orlando Magic
Result:  Orlando in 6

Dwight Howard absolutely annihilated the Toronto Raptors in this series.

Howard averaged 20 points, 18 rebounds, 4 blocks, and shot 61% from the field.

Hedo Turkuglu and Rashard Lewis paced the Magic with averaged of 19 and 18 points respectively.

The Raptors have some key roster decisions to make over the off-season. 

Do you they build around T.J. Ford or Jose Calderon?  Both are starting point guards in the NBA and Ford hasn’t shown a willingness to split minutes with Jose.

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Philadelphia

Prediction:  Detroit Pistons
Result:  Pistons in 6

Detroit did what they always do.  They played lackadaisically over the course of the series until the media and their fans lit a match under their backsides. 

We’ll see if they’re able to sleepwalk their way into their 6th conference finals appearance against the Magic.

(1) LA Lakers vs. (8) Denver

Prediction:  Los Angeles Lakers
Result:  Lakers in 4

I rarely get overly excited about my team but I’m very excited about the Lakers championship prospects over the next 6-7 seasons.

This team has a chance to be SPECIAL.  I’m talking Jordan’s Bulls in the 90’s special.

As for the Nuggets, they were better off with Andre Miller. 

Allen Iverson just doesn’t get ‘it’ and unfortunately, it doesn’t look as if he ever will.

(4) Utah vs. (5) Houston

Prediction:  Utah Jazz
Result:  Jazz in 6

Of all the Western Conference matchups, I thought this one was most likely to result in a sweep.

With Yao Ming out, I didn’t think Tracy McGrady would be enough to win even one game but the Rockets managed to get two victories.

Barring injury, which is a big ‘if’ since T-Mac and Ming are extremely injury prone, the Rockets will be legitimate NBA championship contenders next season.

Five years from now, what will people remember most about the 2007-2008 NBA season, that the Rockets won 22-games in a row, or that team “x” won the NBA championship?

I know what I’ll remember…

(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Phoenix

Prediction:  San Antonio Spurs
Result:  Spurs in 5

Even I was surprised at the relative ease in which the Spurs dispatched the Suns.

I’ll always believe that the Shaquille O’Neal trade was made under false pretenses.  The belief that he would improve their interior defense was absurd and was sliced to shreds by Tim Duncan’s scoring and Tony Parker’s penetration in round one.

Bottom line:  the Suns, while always mediocre defensively, were better on that end with Shawn Marion and no statistical “proof” will persuade me otherwise.

(2) New Orleans vs. (7) Dallas

Prediction:  Dallas Mavericks
Result :  Hornets in 5

I’ll admit, I’ve been a Chris Paul skeptic for much of the season.

But the kid is making me a believer.

I love the way he manages his team.  Chris plays with a maturity far beyond his 23 years of age and eons beyond his two years in the league.

He’ll need every ounce of that maturity to get past the NBA’s oldest team (average age 31) and winner of four of the last ten NBA championships.

First round prognostication results:  6-2

The Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz played one another four times during the 2007-2008 regular season with the Lakers taking the season series 3-1. The Lakers won both contests at home and one the last game of the series at Energy Solutions Arena, ending the Jazz’s 19-game home winning streak.

The Lakers own the homecourt in this series and that should be enough for them to advance to their first conference final since 2004.

Keys for Los Angeles

1. Contain Kirilenko

Andrei was a non factor in the three Laker wins. He averaged 13 points and averaged single digits in both rebounds and assists.

But in Utah’s 106-95 victory, AK47 had a triple-double with 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists. He’s a unique player. He is only the second player in NBA history (Hakeem Olajuwon) with multipe 5X5 games and is a quadruble double threat every time he steps on the floor.

The Jazz are a completely different team when he gets it going offensively. His offensive success tends to carry over to the defensive side of the ball where he is a three-time All-Defensive team selection.

2. Put Kobe on Deron Williams

CP3 is a great point guard and the popular pick for MVP but all things considered (outside shooting, defense, passing, poise, toughness) I think Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA.

D-Will averaged 23 per game versus the Lakers this season and erupted for 35 in Utah’s lone victory.

At 6-3 205 pounds, he has a size advantage over Derek Fisher but Kobe’s length could give him problems on the offensive end and disrupt the timing of the Jazz offense.

3. Continue to play unselfish

Bryant averaged 30 points per game in the season series but LA’s biggest mismatch is in the frontcourt. Carlos Boozer is one of the best power forwards in the game but he can’t defend Gasol AND Odom.

The Lakers need to make whoever is defended by Okur the focal point of the offense and work their offense from the inside-out.

4. Retain their edge

Derek Fisher was booed by the Jazz faithful in Utah’s 120-96 victory at home on November 30th.  There are more than a few Utah fans that feel Derek departed the team under false pretenses by asking to be let out of his contract so he could sign with a team in a city where his daughter could receive treatment for a cancerous tumor.

Fisher was clearly bothered by the fans reaction in the first game and the Lakers, especially Kobe Bryant, took their boos personal.

LA responded by playing with fire in 106-95 victory back in Utah on March 20th.

That win was capped by a Bryant dunk in the 4th quarter where he let out a primal scream into the crowd.

When asked about his behavior after the game by Cheryl Miller, Bryant replied that he was “very upset” at the Jazz fans who chose to boo Derek last time for “no reason.”

I doubt Bryant has forgotten about Fisher’s reception in their first trip to Utah this season and the Jazz fans would be wise to keep their mouths shut this time around.

Before the playoffs began, I wrote that as Laker fan, there were three teams I’d rather not see in the playoffs — the Nuggets, Jazz, and Spurs.

One down, two to go.

Will the Pistons “flip the switch” in this series or will they revert back to their nonchalant play?

Will it matter?

Will this be the year that the championship window that has seemingly been open for the past four seasons slams shut?

I think so.

Keys for Orlando

1.  Force feed Dwight Howard

Rasheed Wallace can’t stop him.  Neither can Jason Maxiell or Antonio McDyess. 

Howard led the NBA in rebounds, double-doubles, was 5th in blocks, and 3rd in field goal percentage this season in establishing himself as the best center in the game.

Detroit doesn’t have the kryptonite for ‘Superman’.

2.  Let Rasheed fire up all the 3-pointers his heart desires

Which shouldn’t be too difficult because unfortunately, Sheed prefers to play behind the arc anyways. 

With Dwight Howard down low, can you blame him?

Aside from LeBron James, Wallace is the most talented player in the NBA.  As he goes, so do the Pistons.

No wonder they suffer from so many mental lapses.

3.  Exploit their mismatches

Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton have difficulty defending swingmen with size (LeBron James anyone?).  Orlando has two of the most versatile guard/forwards in the league in Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu.

Turkoglu has been a reliable playoff performer since his days with the Kings and I expect him to be a HUGE factor in this series.

The Magic have an advantage in three of the five starting positions (Howard, Hedo, & Lewis). 

The Pistons have an advantage at point guard and a deeper bench but Big Shot Billups won’t be enough to propel Detroit to a 6th straight conference finals appearance.

Few people expected the Hornets to make the playoffs this season, much less contend for the Western Conference’s #1 seed.

But Chris Paul led the Hornets to a surprising 56-26 record and the 2nd seed.

Paul and the Hornets made quick work of Jason Kidd and the Mavericks but face a different task altogether with the battle tested Spurs.

I’ll take the Spurs in six.

Keys for San Antonio

1.  Unleash Bruce Bowen

Bruce still doesn’t receive the respect he deserves.  Does he cross the line from time to time?  Yes, but there isn’t a finer perimeter defender in the league.

Bowen will be assigned the unenviable task of slowing down Chris Paul in this series.  Bruce has done a fantastic job against Nash the previous two seasons.  Expect more of the same in this series.

2.  Close out on the Hornets sharpshooters

The Spurs are the smartest team in the league.  Their rotations are flawless and they follow Popovich’s game plans to a ‘T’.

Look for San Antonio to dare Chris Paul to beat them by himself through the opening quarters of the series by staying home on Peja, Pargo, and Mo Pete when Paul gets into the paint. Eliminating the catch and shoot opportunities those players thrive upon.

The Spurs are masters at letting one player go off for a few quarters and then putting the clamps on him in the 4th quarter.  By the time that player is forced to involve his teammates, they’re out of sync and rarely deliver.

4.  Stop the Paul-to-Chandler alley-oop

Again, I don’t think this will be a problem.  Duncan and Kurt Thomas don’t have Chandler’s athleticism but they’re smart enough to put a body on him before he can roll to the basket.

I picked the Mavericks to beat the Hornets because I thought J. Kidd would get the better end of his matchup with Chris Paul.  I was wrong.  Paul did whatever he wanted against the Mavs.

But the Spurs aren’t the Mavs.  Instead of playing opposite an over-the-hill Kidd, Paul will be facing off against All-NBA defender Bruce Bowen and asked to defend lighting quick Tony Parker on the other end.

Paul will have to have a monster series for New Orleans to advance.

San Antonio didn’t let LeBron James beat them last year.

They won’t let Chris Paul defeat them this year.

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Via Dime:

Describing the day as his “own personal nightmare” and the “worst morning of his life,” Kevin Garnett missed Tuesday’s practice after spending over four hours at a Boston area DMV trying to get a new and updated driver’s license.

“I woke up this morning and I thought, ‘Maybe I will just go grab my license today,” Garnett said. “Huge mistake. I thought it would be easy, but my God, it was awful.”

Garnett’s day of trouble started almost immediately. “I got there at 9 am, which is when it opened,” Garnett said. “But there were already people out the door. So by the time I got a ticket, I was ticket number 178. They were only on number 102, so I looked around for a book or magazine.”

Unfortunately for Garnett, DMVs in Boston no longer carry magazines or books, due to rampant theft. “I am not sure how they roll in the twin cities,” said Roger Marshall, spokesperson for the Massachusetts DMV. “But here in the Commonwealth, we don’t want our DMVs to be like modern-day barbershops. We don’t want people hanging around and talking all day. Get in, get out, you know?” [Read]