Loading ...Utah versus Golden State: Utah
Golden State is coming off one of the biggest upsets in playoff history. The Warriors shocked soon to be NBA MVP Dirk Nowitzki and his #1 seeded Dallas Mavericks by defeating them in six games.
The Dallas Mavericks came into the postseason having won an NBA best 67 games during the regular season. All of their regular season success was for not as Golden State exposed a weakness in the Maverick defense, one that remained from the previous postseason.
Baron Davis torched Dallas in the same fashion as Dwyane Wade did in the 2005-2006 NBA Finals.
‘B. Diddy’ averaged 25 PPG while shooting 54% from the field.
The Utah Jazz, led by Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer closed out Houston and Tracy McGrady on the Rockets homecourt in game 7.
The young Jazz proved their resilience by avoiding two elimination games versus the Rockets. Point guard Deron Williams has shown himself to be poised under pressure. Williams’ playmaking ability will be put to the test when they travel to Oracle Arena.
Golden State’s first round series saw the Warrior faithful TWICE set records in attendance for a basketball game in the state of California.
Steve Kerr remarked “The Oracle Arena crowd was the best I have ever seen in the NBA. In 15 years of playing and four years as a commentator, I have never, ever seen 20,000 fans standing as one for an entire second half.”
I was impressed by the Warriors in round one but the game of basketball is all about matchups. Golden State was a terrible match up for Dallas but the Warriors have many holes in their armor.
I believe the Utah Jazz have the tools to take advantage of those weaknesses and will win the series.
Keys for Utah
Contain Baron Davis: Golden State was a terrible match up for Dallas because the Mavericks have had difficulties containing opposing star guards the past two seasons. Kobe scored 62 in 3 quarters versus Dallas. Dwyane Wade single-handedly beat them in last year’s NBA Finals.
Baron Davis is a great player but Derek Fisher and Deron Williams have the strength to defend him. Dallas’ improvement on the defensive side of the ball this season was exaggerated.
Utah is twice the team defensively as Dallas was. The lanes to the basket that Baron penetrated versus Dallas will not be there against Utah.
When Davis manages to get to the basket he will be greeted by Boozer, Kirilenko, and Harpring. The Jazz do not shy away from contact and that may be the difference in the series.
Don’t compromise: Avery Johnson compromized his team’s chemistry and sent a message that the Mavericks had to change their philosophy to compete with Golden State by changing his starting lineup before game one of that series.
Johnson was strategically beaten by Don Nelson. Avery deserves just as much blame as Dirk for that series loss.
Jerry Sloan will prepare his team to take on the Warriors without reservations. Utah will continue to play their game.
Utah’s defensive intensity will effectively counter the ’small-ball’ energy of Golden State.
Take advantage of frontcourt mismatches: Nellie’s ‘small ball’ attack was successful versus Dallas because they lacked inside scoring. Dirk Nowitzki failed to go to work down low and that was the difference.
Carlos Boozer played magnificent in round one. I predicted the Rockets to win that their series with Utah because I believed the Boozer-Ming matchup would decide the series. I was right about the significence of the matchup, but I was wrong about which player would have the larger impact.
Carlos Boozer outplayed Yao.
Williams needs to deliver the basketball to Boozer in the paint. If Utah is able to get Carlos 20-25 shot attempts a game they will win. Golden State has no one to defend Boozer if he gets an opportunity to go to work down low.
Defend the three point line: Golden State starts four players who can shoot the three ball. Utah must close out on Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson, and Matt Barnes in the event that Davis penetrate and passes.
Kirilenko will need to anchor the Jazz defense and use his length to alter perimeter as well as interior shots.
Remain poised: For lack of a better description, let’s just say that Dirk Nowitzki was ‘punked’ in round one. Golden State had him shook from game one and he never completely recovered.
Oracle Arena will be rockin’ once more and Williams must find a way to calm the inevitable storms in that hostile Warrior arena.
I thought the Rockets would win game 7 because of their experience. I thought the odds of second year pro D. Williams caving to the pressure of an elimination game on an opposing team’s court were too great for Utah to win.
I was wrong. Deron is a steady playmaker.
I’ve never seen a Jerry Sloan team rattled or intimidated and I don’t expect that to change now.
New Jersey versus Cleveland: New Jersey
I wanted to predict Golden State to beat Dallas. I knew that the Mavericks would have their hands full with Baron Davis but what I thought was “better judgement” prevented me from making the pick.
I’ve never been impressed by Dallas. They still lack the leadership to win a championship.
Better judgment tells me that Cleveland will beat New Jersey but I want to predict the Nets as winners.
We’ll see how my “judgement” fares this time around.
Jason Kidd has a total of 87 career triple doubles. Only four players in NBA history have reached 70 triple doubles (Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, Wilt Chamberlain, and Jason Kidd).
This series will pit two of the game’s biggest triple double threats in Kidd and LeBron James. Both players are capable of dominating a basketball game without scoring.
In 6th seeded New Jersey’s first-round win over 3rd seeded Toronto, Kidd averaged 14.0 points, 13.2 assists and 10 rebounds, joining Wilt Chamberlain and Magic Johnson as the only players to average a triple-double in a series more than once. Kidd also did it in 2002 in the Eastern Conference finals against Boston.
Neither team is blessed with effective bench play. However, both Kidd and James are surrounded by former All-Stars in their starting lineups.
LeBron benefits from Larry Hughes and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Kidd has Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter. Both stars will need consistent production from their teammates.
I think the point guard mastery of Jason Kidd will be too much for King James and his counterparts. LeBron’s ascension to the throne will be delayed yet another season.
Keys for New Jersey
Push the tempo: New Jersey is most effective with Kidd running the break, flanked by both Jefferson and Carter.
Kidd is still the best fast break point guard in the league and his ability to get Carter easy baskets will help Vince find his rhythm in this series.
Carter is still a high flyer and his dunks energize the entire team.
Vince, RJ, and Mikki Moore all have an advantage in foot speed at their respective positions. Each of those players must make a constant effort to beat their man down the floor.
Key on Pavlovic: James will get his but he’s still more Magic Johnson than Michael Jordan. I expect Hughes, Z, and Gooden to be their normal selfs but minimizing Pavlovic’s productivity will ensure victory.
Get to the basket: This is the story of Vince Carter’s career. Will Carter settle for jumpshots or use his amazing athleticism to put pressure on the defense?
Cleveland doesn’t have a prayer if Vince attacks the hoop. The Cavs have no one to match Carter’s explosiveness.
Trust in J. Kidd: There’s no magic formula to New Jersey’s offense. They depend upon their Big Three of Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson. All three are healthy and ready to rumble with the King.
J. Kidd has been to the NBA Finals twice. He does not shy away from pressure, the same cannot be said of LeBron James and that could be the difference in the likely event that this series goes 7 games.
If Carter and the Nets continue to trust in Kidd, he will lead them to another playoff “upset.”
My predictions for the first round of the 2007 NBA playoffs were 6-2.
