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Pre-Playoff prediction: Detroit.
Orlando’s youth never stood a chance versus the veteran Pistons.
Dwight Howard had a monster year but he discovered that the playoffs are an entirely different animal than the regular season. D. Howard’s learning curve is the same as any other young player. He’ll come back stronger next season.
Grant Hill will be a free agent this off-season. While Hill has expressed a desire to stay loyal to the Orlando organization that stood by him throughout his many ankle ailments he will test the free agent waters.
Grant played all 82 games this past season for the first time in seven years and has plenty of great basketball left.
Pre-Playoff prediction: New Jersey
Similar to the Detroit-Orlando series this was a match up of youth versus experience. Toronto had an impressive regular season but I knew that T.J. Ford and Chris Bosh weren’t up to the challenge of a first round series with Jason Kidd.
Kidd averaged 14.0 points, 13.2 assists and 10 rebounds, joining Wilt Chamberlain and Magic Johnson as the only players to average a triple-double in a series more than once. Kidd also did it in 2002 in the Eastern Conference finals against Boston.
Like Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh had an outstanding regular season but was ill-prepared for the intensity of the playoffs.
Such is the learning curve for most young players. Magic Johnson being the only exception. Magic won a championship in his first season with LA and despite being surrounded by great players was an instrumental piece in their championship run.
Pre-Playoff prediction: Chicago
Chicago embarrassed Miami in the season opener and sent them packing in the playoffs.
As I stated in my prediction, Luol Deng was the difference. Miami had no answer for him or Ben Gordon.
Shaq’s days of dominance have come to an end.
The question is: what do the Heat do to get younger and more athletic in an ever improving and up-and-coming Eastern Conference?
John Paxson has built Chicago into a team that has the potential to contend for championships well into the next decade. Detroit has at least two more seasons as a contender. Toronto and Orlando have young talent. Even LeBron James has a better supporting cast than Dwyane Wade.
Miami has no young talent and no valuable trade assets.
As they stand now, the Heat aren’t good enough to win another championship and not bad enough to be a lottery team.
They owe Shaquille O’Neal $60 million over the next three seasons. Antoine Walker is owed nearly $38 million over the next five
There isn’t an NBA GM dumb enough (not even Kevin McHale) to take on those contracts.
Although the Lakers have struggled since Shaquille’s departure the trade of Shaquille was the right move.
If Shaq had remained in LA and taken the $10 million dollar ‘pay cut’ that he eventually accepted with Miami the Lakers would still owe he and Kobe a combined $39,490,625 next season. The salary cap is projected to be in the mid $50 million range next season.
That would have given the Lakers a paltry $15 million to fill the remaining roster without exceeding the luxury tax threshold.
It remains to be seen whether Kobe and the Lakers will win another championship without Shaq but if even if they fail to do so, Jerry Buss made the right decision for the future of the Los Angeles Laker franchise.
Pre-playoff Prediction: Cleveland
The Wizards had no chance without the services of the injured All-Stars Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Had they had those two in the lineup, I think they would have won that series.
Pre-Playoff Prediction: Dallas
I wanted to predict the Warriors to win this series. I cited the fact that Dallas had been routinely abused by opposing star guards (see Wade’s Finals MVP and Kobe’s 62 in 3 quarters last season) but felt as if the Dallas Mavericks would ultimately prevail.
I was wrong. Baron Davis took note of Dwyane Wade’s NBA Finals performance the previous season and torched the Mavs in exactly the same fashion.
The Mavs have serious work to do in the off-season. They need a point guard. Jason Terry and Devon Harris are not point guards. Both players are best suited on the wing.
Dallas also needs a low post scorer and a clutch performer. Dirk was neither in their first round loss.
Pre-Playoff Prediction: Houston
I was correct in stressing the significance of the Boozer-Ming match up. I felt it would decide the series and it did. I was wrong in assuming Yao would have the larger impact.
Carlos Boozer dominated Yao and the Rockets.
Deron Williams also eliminated any doubts I had regarding his playmaking abilities.
Williams played great in the deciding game 7 on Houston’s homecourt.
Tracy McGrady exited the playoffs in the first round once more. The loss was not his fault. T-Mac played great but Houston must bolster their bench in order to get to the next level.
Key free agent acquisition Bonzi Wells failed to complete the regular season and was a no-show in the playoffs. His production was sorely missed but help could be on the way.
Wells has a player option for next season that he will undoubtebly exercise, clearing up additional salary cap room and Houston only has Ming, McGrady, Rafer Alston, Juwon Howard, and Shane Battier signed through the 2008-2009 season.
It will be up to the Houston Rocket organization to surround Ming and McGrady with complimentary talent but they have the flexibility to do so.
Pre-Playoff Prediction: San Antonio
Allen Iverson reverted back to his old ways, Carmelo Anthony didn’t get enough touches, and the Nuggets had no answer for the efficient offense of San Antonio.
Denver’s “one man defense” consisting of Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Camby could not contain San Antonio’s ‘Big Three’ of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan.
The trade of Allen Iverson has put the Nuggets over the luxury tax and owner Stan Kroenke has indicated no desire to pay the tax without a championship.
AI and Carmelo are under contract for $32,564,375 next season.
Denver has also committed a combined $32 million to frontcourt players Nene, Kenyon Martin, and Marcus Camby.
Eduardo Najera and Reggie Evans are quality Nugget frontcourt reserves. I would seem as if the logical choice would be to unload one of their pricy frontcourt contracts.
Nene has shown too much promise and Kenyon is too injury prone to attract anything of value from trade potential trade partners.
Is Denver’s “two man offense” enough to compensate for the loss of their one player who defends?
Pre-Playoff Prediction: Phoenix
It was an injury riddled regular season for the Lakers.
Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Luke Walton and Kwame Brown played only 16 regular-season games together.
I was hoping for a return of the team which began the season 26-13 but that hope was unrealistic. The team that struggled to a 17-31 finish was all that should have been expected and that was all that showed up.
Kobe Bryant and the Lakers had absolutely NO chance against Phoenix.
Afterward an agitated Bryant remarked that the Laker management needed to “do something and do it now.”
“I’ll do whatever it takes to win,” Bryant said. “I’ve had to do a lot just to get us into the playoffs. I don’t want to do that. I want to win championships. I don’t want to be a one-man show, a team that goes onto the road, the opposition crowd wants to see me score 50 and lose.
“I’m not with that. I’m about winning. I want to win championships and win them now. So, they have some decisions to make.”
In my opinion, the Lakers still possess the NBA’s best owner, coach, and player.
It’s time for LA to take a bold chance like Denver did with the Allen Iverson trade.
The most important decision will involve whether or not to trade Andrew Bynum.
Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O’Neal will be available for the right price. That price will undoubtebly include Bynum.
Bynum has shown flashes of brilliance and he may become a great player one day but with the Western Conference being as competitive as it is and the window of Bryant’s prime closing a little more with each passing year, the time is now.
In addition to Bynum the Lakers have a couple of other valuable trade assets. Kwame Brown’s $9 million dollar salary will come off the books after next season. He could be a valuable asset to any team looking to create cap space after next season.
Farmar and Odom each possess considerable trade value.
I think the Lakers have a greater chance of acquiring O’Neal than they do KG.
Larry Bird took a chance on a young and unproven Jermaine O’Neal, hopefully he’ll be willing to do the same with Andrew Bynum.
I’m sure that Bird would much rather trade Jermaine to a Western Conference opponet than an Eastern Conference competitor as well.
Luke Walton, Ronny Turiaf, Shammond Williams, Aaron McKie, and Smush Parker will be free agents.
Both Walton and Turiaf have expressed a desire to return to the Lakers. If I were Mitch Kupchek I would do everything possible to resign those two and shut the door on the others.
Brian Grant’s $15 million dollar salary will come off the books this season. LA will have the mid-level exception available as well. The exception is worth roughly $5 million per season.
As I mentioned above Grant Hill be a free agent and as a Laker fan, I hope the Lakers pursue him aggressively.
Phil Jackson has always had a penchant for veteran guards with size. Grant is 6’7 and possesses an extraordinary basketball IQ that would allow him to become acclimated to the triangle quickly.
Hill fits the prototype of a triangle point forward to a T.
Think Ron Harper.
I’ve read many comments here at Fox indicating that Kobe is getting exactly what he deserves for driving Shaquille O’Neal out of LA.
Bryant may have driven Shaq out and he may have wanted to be the ‘man’. But he didn’t ask to be surrounded by Smush Parker and Kwame Brown.
He didn’t ask for it and he doesn’t deserve it.
It remains to be seen whether the Lakers will succeed in getting Bryant some legitimate help this off-season but they have the resources and assets to do so.
