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This IS the greatest NBA season ever and the playoffs haven’t even begun. I’m not ready to predict an NBA champion but with 2 months left in the regular reason, it’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Contenders
1. San Antonio Spurs - the media is focused on the Lakers, Suns, Pistons, and Celtics. With their victory over the Hawks, the Spurs have won 6 in a row, 9 of their last 10. Coach Greg Popovich is a master at making sure his team peaks for the playoffs. San Antonio doesn’t play for a high playoff seed, they play for NBA championships. With four championships in the past 10 years, who’s going to argue with Popovich’s methods?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; if Tim Duncan shot the ball 26 times a game, TD would win MVP and lead the league in scoring each year.
Only 3 players have scored more than 40 points on multiple occasions this season — Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Manu Ginobili. Any team with hopes of dethroning the defending champion Spurs had better have a plan to contain one of the greatest winners in the history of basketball.
2. Los Angeles Lakers - the addition of Pau Gasol vaulted the Lakers past the Suns, Mavs, and Jazz in the West. Gasol’s ability to play in the post and hit the mid range jumper has allowed him to seamlessly fit into the triangle offense. LA has won 9 straight and Gasol & Kobe Bryant have become a deadly duo on the pick-and-roll. Pau will also take pressure off Andrew Bynum when he returns in late March.
Lamar Odom seems to have found his niche since Gasol’s arrival. Lamar is averaging 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists over the last 5 games, while shooting 60% from the field. It’s scary to think how good the Lakers could be when Bynum returns and a player as talented as Lamar Odom is demoted to the 4th option.
I’m not a huge fan of player value rankings since there are too many intangibles in basketball that cannot possibly be quantified by statistics. But, the Lakers have 3 players ranked in the top 20 (Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol) in PER (Player Efficiency Rating). The Spurs have 2 in the top 5 (Ginobili, Duncan).
3. Utah Jazz - the Jazz are another team that seems to be flying under the radar. They are 8-3 over their past 11 games. Deron Williams is a steady playmaker. He will remain my pick in the debate between he and Chris Paul until Paul gets it done in the postseason. Carlos Boozer is one of the top 5 power forwards in the game. Andrei Kirilenko is a defensive stopper. Paul Milsap and Ronnie Brewer provide solid contributions.
The Jazz are as complete a team as there is in the league. They advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season and are primed for a return trip to the mountaintop.
4. Boston Celtics - despite losing three games in a row (their longest streak of the season), the Celtics remain the Eastern Conference’s top team. Led by Kevin Garnett (my preseason pick as MVP) the Celtics own a league best record of 43-12. Many ‘experts’ questioned whether the Celtics would be able to defend this season. Boston has answered those questions by holding their opponents to 90.5 ppg.
Holding on to the #1 seed in the East is key to Boston’s championship hopes. Nipping at their heels for the Eastern Conference’s best record - the Detroit Pistons.
5. Detroit Pistons - after 5 consecutive trips to the Eastern Conference Finals and only 1 NBA championship to show for their efforts; I was ready to count Detroit out this year. But the Pistons just won’t go away. The Pistons are 8-2 over their past 10 games and are holding their opponents to 90.28 ppg.
Their bench, a weak spot in the past, has been bolstered by rookie guards Rodney Stuckey and Aaron Afflalo and second year forwards Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell. Cleveland remains Detroit’s achilles heel. Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are too frail to defend the King. Half the battle is believing you can win and Cleveland doesn’t fear Detroit. I can’t see myself picking the Pistons over the Cavs again, but if they can manage to secure the # 1 seed in the East, and Boston defeats Cleveland; the Pistons are capable of advancing to the NBA Finals where anything can happen.
Pretenders
1. Phoenix Suns – it’s no secret that I believe the Suns are worse defensively with Shaquille O’Neal. Phoenix has allowed 110 + points in 3 of the 4 games since Shaq’s arrival. They gave up 113 to the lowly Memphis Grizzlies last night. Memphis played most of the night without a center and went straight at O’Neal. Rudy BLEEP had a career-high 38 points.
D’Antoni went back to his small ball lineup and put up 37 points in the 4th quarter – with Shaq watching – to help Phoenix avoid another embarrassing loss. Steve Nash was forced to play 40 minutes, the entire 4th quarter, to get the W. Phoenix will not be able to outscore their opponents in the playoffs…if they can get there.
2. Dallas Mavericks – the Mavericks are a better team with Jason Kidd. Kidd has 45 assists in his first 4 games with the team that drafted him. Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 23 points on the season but has scored 31, 27, 29, & 29 points since Kidd’s arrival. Dallas is getting out on the break like never before and their half-court sets have been infused with motion.
I don’t think Dallas can win a championship without a low-post scorer but I would love to watch Kidd & Nash go at it for 7 games.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers – the Eastern Conference is monumentally weak. Forget last week’s trade that brought Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, & Joe Smith to Cleveland. With MVP LeBron James, the Cavaliers are capable of winning the East. Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Unfortunately, they don’t match up well with any of the Western Conference contenders.
Cleveland is capable of beating the Pistons again. The only team that stands in the way of a repeat trip to the NBA Finals is the Boston Celtics.
What separates the contenders from the pretenders? Team defense and interior scoring.
5 contenders. 3 pretenders. The NBA playoffs are a three month test of will and fortitude. Any team can get hot for four consecutive games. This year’s NBA Champion will consistently prove their basketball superiority. They will rise to the occasion and perform like champions.
