Flip Saunders was fired by the Detroit Pistons today after averaging 59 wins during his three year stint with the club.
GM Joe Dumars made the correct decision by letting go of Saunders but the annual NBA championship expectations in Motown have to stop.
Detroit’s success over the past seven seasons is due — in large part — to their residence on the East coast.
The Pistons have been the Eastern Conference’s #1 or #2 seeded playoff team the past seven years — winning 50 games in each one of those campaigns.
But despite their regular season records and high playoff seeds, they’ve been far from the NBA’s best or second best team since 2005.
Detroit’s regular season record and cross-seeding (where they would have been seeded in the West) since 2002:
|
Year |
Regular Season Wins |
Eastern Conference Seed |
Western Conference Seed |
|
50 |
2 |
5 |
|
|
50 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
54 |
2 |
5 |
|
|
54 |
2 |
4 |
|
|
64 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
53 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
59 |
2 |
1 |
Aside from the 2006 and 2008 NBA seasons, the Pistons would have been a middle echelon team in the West.
And all of those season win totals were aided by the fact that Detroit played 52 in-conference and 30 out-of-conference games.
So why does this team think so highly of themselves after accomplishing so little?
Because 50 win seasons are a rarity and something to be celebrated in the Eastern Conference.
They’re commonplace in the West.
Bottom line: Detroit is a flawed basketball team and has been since 2006.
They’re overrated defensively
I know Detroit was first in points allowed per game during the regular season (90.07) but again, that statistic is aided by the fact that they play the majority of their regular season games against inferior competition.
Tayshaun Prince did a fantastic job on Kobe Bryant in the 2004 NBA Finals and has evidently ridden that performance to four consecutive All-Defensive 2nd team selections but he is not an elite defender.
Neither he nor Richard Hamilton has the size or athleticism to match up with athletic guards/forwards.
Dwayne Wade dominated the Pistons in the 2006 playoffs.
LeBron James did the same in 2007.
And an athletic guard or forward is exactly what the Pistons need.
They have no one who can create their own shot
More than at any time in NBA history, today’s game is dominated by quick guards who are capable of penetrating the defense. The NBA has made it so that it’s virtually impossible to impede a ball-handler from getting into the paint by outlawing all forms of handchecking.
The Pistons have no one to take advantage of the new defensive rules.
Chauncey is a spot up shooter, Hamilton is best suited coming off of screens, and Tayshaun does most of his damage off of post-up opportunities.
All three are former or current All-Stars and possess trade value.
One of them needs to go.
They’re undisciplined
Detroit’s leftovers from their 2004 NBA championship team (Billups, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace) have been coached by the ‘legendary’ Larry Brown. Say what you like about Brown (I know I have) but he knows the game.
Detroit was the best team in the East in 2006 and 2007 but underachieved.
And it all starts with Rasheed Wallace. He’s one of the top 5 talented players in the game but he’s the poster boy for unrealized potential.
The only thing that separates him from Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett is his mentality.
Instead of getting in the paint and going to work, he’s content hanging out behind the arc and firing up 3-ball after 3-ball. Sheed’ is a great shooter but it’s basketball – not rocket science – the closer you are to the basket, the higher your shooting percentage.
By most accounts, Rasheed is a great teammate.
But his emotional outbursts during games are a distraction to his team.
After letting go of Flip, it’s hard to imagine Dumars trading Wallace.
It’s imperative that Dumars bring in a coach that demands Rasheed’s undivided attention.
Assistant coach Michael Curry is rumored to be the leading candidate to replace Saunders. But I’m not sure Curry has the clout to light a fire under Detroit’s group of veterans.
So who does?
Avery Johnson is a interesting candidate.
Detroit doesn’t need an X’s and O’s coach (which Avery certainly isn’t). Avery is motivator. He wills his team to play hard and he’s not afraid to ruffle a few feathers in the process – which is exactly what the Pistons (especially Rasheed) need.
In many ways, Avery and the Pistons are at a similar crossroads.
Avery won a championship as a player and lost in the Finals as a coach in 2006.
Detroit won the NBA championship in 2004 and lost in the 2005 NBA Finals.
After two disappointing postseasons, both Johnson and the Pistons have something to prove.
Johnson will demand the Pistons respect and absolutely will not tolerate complacency.
It’s a match made in Motown.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Detroit is a case in over-expectations. They have a solid team that plays very good defense and they are a model in consistency. They never seem to suffer the injury bug, and because of this and years of playing with the same core, they win a lot of regular season games. However, they rarely have the best player on the court in a playoff series and their team engages in entitlement banter which only ensures their opponent is fired up.
At the end of the day, Detroit plays very close to their ceiling during the regular season. They have good players, but not players who can elevate their games in the playoffs.
At the beginning of the season, everyone jumped on the Detroit (and Chicago) bandwagons. I could not understand why. If they lost in 6 games to Cleveland in 07 what exactly was going to be different in ‘08? They ran into a different opponent, but it was the same result - getting bounced from the conference finals with a whimper amidst a Sheed Meltdown.
Hoffman, you know I hate comparing records across conferences. Detroit played very well against the West this year and if you just “drop” them in the West then someone from the West goes to the East. You can’t just put their existing record and assume it (along with all the other West records) would remain the same - they wouldn’t.
I don’t understand why you made the case about where they would be in the West anyway. You’ve proven they would be the top seed twice in the three year Flip Saunders era (and i’m assuming his departure is the motivation for this piece). And they won the TITLE in ‘04….
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Great picture by the way!
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Tsunami,
From 2001-2002 to 2007-2008, Detroit played 370 in-conference and 204 out-of-conference regular season games.
The Pistons were 257-113 (69%) versus the East and 127-77 (62%) versus the West during that period.
A 69% winning percentage equals a 57 win regular season. Sixty-two percent is good enough for 51 wins.
Historically, a 51 win regular season is good enough to get a team in the playoffs in either conference.
But a 51 regular season in the East all but guarantees a team a high seed and relatively easy path to the Conference Finals.
That’s not the case in the West.
You said, “Hoffman, you know I hate comparing records across conferences. Detroit played very well against the West this year and if you just “drop” them in the West then someone from the West goes to the East. You can’t just put their existing record and assume it (along with all the other West records) would remain the same - they wouldn’t.”
You can’t assume that Detroit’s record versus the West over the course of 30 games would be the same if they played 52 games in that conference either.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:50 pm
“You can’t assume that Detroit’s record versus the West over the course of 30 games would be the same if they played 52 games in that conference either.”
Of course you can’t make that assumption. But you are making lots of assumptions when you say that they would only win 62% of their games against the West if they PLAYED in the West.
Who are they replacing? A team like the Spurs? Or the Clippers? Which division are they in? Maybe they matchup well against teams from one division or another.
When you take time to do the math and come up with percentages and the like it is in essence trying to create an exact science out of speculation. And it is using very inexact assumptions.
In math, 144 is the same as 144.00000000. But it doesn’t make any sense to round off numbers and then display the results of operating on those numbers with great precision. If you are going to say that 12.493243 x 12.89123 is close enough to be 12×12, you can’t decide that the answer is 144.000000000.
I don’t think the Detroit Pistons have been a top 2 team in the EAST the last 3 years, so of course I don’t believe they should be considered among the elite in the West, however, it is all just speculation. We can’t know exactly what would have happened if Detroit suddenly played the West and some other team played in the East.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
It bothers me when people go on about how the West is so dominant and the East is the JV.
A real JV team would probably never beat a varsity team at the same school.
Any team in the NBA can beat ANY TEAM in the NBA on ANY GIVEN NIGHT. (unless they are tanking, like the heat)
I think the Lakers will handle the Celtics this year, but if/when it happens, I will feel sick to my stomach every time someone says something about how the “Blazers could have beaten the Celtics in a series”.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Tsunami,
I didn’t say the Pistons would win 62% of their games in the West. I just pointed to the fact that they have won less against the West than they have against the East.
I didn’t use a small sample size either.
By those #’s, I think it’s reasonable to assume the Pistons would have won less games during the regular season the past 7 seasons if they had been in the West.
It really doesn’t matter what division they would be in. It doesn’t matter who they would replace either.
Both of those variables are small when looking at the big picture and realizing that 22 games (52-30) would be played against better competition.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Tsunami,
“It bothers me when people go on about how the West is so dominant.”
I know it bothers you, but with all due respect, it’s absolutely true.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:59 pm
And it doesn’t end with the Pistons either.
There’s no way the Celtics would have won 66 games in the West.
And I don’t care what their record against the West was over 30 games.
June 3rd, 2008 at 3:03 pm
“Detroit’s success over the past seven seasons is due — in large part — to their residence on the East coast.”
I don’t know that I agree with this statement.
The Pistons had a FAR superior record to the Cavs in ‘06 and nearly lost, and they had a superior record to the Heat, who they lost to.
In ‘07 they had a better record than the Cavs and lost.
They only made it to the finals ONCE and they WON it, so I’m not sure the East’s weakness has anything to do with their success. I think it is as I said before, they play near their ceiling during the regular season, never get injuries, and can’t elevate their game in the post-season.
June 3rd, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Tsunami,
Do you think Detroit would have won more or less games had they been in the Western Conference?
Do you think they would have advanced to seven consecutive conference finals?
June 3rd, 2008 at 3:09 pm
“And it doesn’t end with the Pistons either.
There’s no way the Celtics would have won 66 games in the West.
And I don’t care what their record against the West was over 30 games.”
The regular season means more to some teams than others.
A 66 win team should in NO WAY have had a Negative point differential against the Cavs in the semis. A 66 win team should in NO WAY have lost 3 games to the HAWKS. This is regardless of conference, those are games against the EAST!
So how GOOD are the Celtics based on their regular season records?
The Lakers had one of the best records before Andrew Bynum got injured. I do not believe that the Lakers without Pau Gasol (even with an healthy Bynum) would have beaten the Jazz even if they had the number 1 seed at the end of the year.
Some teams overachieve in the regular season, others underachieve. The playoffs are a whole different animal.
It’s silly to make authoritative claims based on the regular season, despite how it may fit a model. The game is played differently, and officiated differently.
And the Celtics dominated the West in the regular season. I’m not sure they would have gotten out of the 2nd round even if they had the top seed in the playoffs.
June 3rd, 2008 at 3:15 pm
“Do you think Detroit would have won more or less games had they been in the Western Conference?”
Less - and everybody else would have won LESS too, if Detroit replaced a bottom feeder.
“Do you think they would have advanced to seven consecutive conference finals?” No.
And if this is the point of your article, you should make that an opening statement because you are right. Instead, you made the claim that their success was due to being in the East, and then you talked ONLY about the regular season. I don’t think their regular season success would have been much different.
Here’s other questions and how I would answer them.
“Do the Pistons view conference finals appearances as successful?” No.
“Would Pistons fan be any more excited about getting bounced in the semi’s in the Western conference than getting bounced in the conference finals in the east?” No.
“Does the Pistons management feel that getting bounced in the conference finals is successful in the East?” No.
Therefore, I believe the Pistons SUCCESSES are related to the regular season - and in that respect, the West has nothing to do with it. They are good enough to be successful against the West and get out of the first round.
June 3rd, 2008 at 3:26 pm
The point of this article was to list Detroit’s weaknesses and the reasons for their apparent “success.”
I don’t doubt that the Pistons would have made the playoffs in the West and probably would have advanced out of the first round.
But they wouldn’t have been perennial championship contenders like everyone has categorized them the past 7 seasons.
I listed their regular season records and where they would have been seeded in the West with those records as proof.
It’s easy to expect a team to advance to the conference finals or contend for a title when they’re the 1 or 2 seed in their conference.
But it’s more telling when you factor where they would be with regards to the league as a whole.
June 3rd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
But you’re right, the blog could have been organized better.
I need an editor.
June 3rd, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Here’s one out of left-field (pun intended)
What do you think of Obama now that he’s got the nominee?
And what will Kobe’s shooting percentage be higher or lower against the C’s than the Spurs?
June 3rd, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Tsunami,
I think Kobe’s shooting percentage will be lower. Boston is a great helpside defensive team.
As for my political leanings, check your email.
June 3rd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
That’s true, but Kobe didn’t exactly force much against the Spurs. I was impressed with how well he picked his spots. It’s easy to do when you have a team as offensively efficient as the Lakers, but you still have to make the decision to be efficient. And he did.
The Celtics would do well to harass him, because if he gets comfortable he is unstoppable. At the same time, when he gets frustrated he’s never afraid to try to shoot himself out of it.
I’m going to guess his assists are up in this series, because I think the Celtics will make someone else beat them (and Gasol, Odom, Fisher, and the shooters will)
June 4th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
I thin it’s a little silly to think that Detroit would be nothing more than a mediocre team in the Western Conference and that the only reason for their success is that they play in the East. If the Pistons played in the West, they’d be up there with the Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio teams of the recent past because their team has big time talent.
Of course, the Pistons would probably lose in the conference quarters or Finals in the West for the same reason they lose in the conference Finals in the East. They don’t have a premier superstar because ‘Sheed doesn’t want to be. Plus, Flip Saunders’ offense relied too much on isolations his first two seasons, and the team never plays with a competitive edge.
Honestly, I can see the Suns and especially the Mavs getting to six straight Eastern Conference Finals and losing four out of those six. And then we’d be talking about how those teams are only good because of the conference they play in, without looking at their collective strengths and fatal flaws.
And with regrads to Prince, you are right in the fact that he is overrated, but not to the extent you make it seem. He’s extremely long and athletic which are great qualities, but he isn’t a very physical defender which is why strong wings like Pierce, Wade, and LeBron have carved him up.
Prince would be better off in matchups against Kobe, Ginobli, Howard, and McGrady; players that rely more on their athleticism than brute strength.
June 4th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Erick,
I don’t doubt that Detroit would have been a top 4 or 5 team the past two years but I don’t think they would have been considered a championship contender in the West like they’ve been considered in the East.
I think they would be similar to the Jazz the past few seasons.
A very good basketball team but a fringe contender.
I agree with you about Prince. His biggest defensive strength is his length. That length was great in defending Kobe’s surgically repaired knee in 2004 but it was useless against the explosiveness of Wade and James in 06′ and 07′.
I guess the point of this article (which I didn’t make very clear) was that the Pistons have been flawed (or not good enough to win the championship) for years but they’ve remained together because of their success in an inferior conference.
If they hadn’t advanced to the conference finals so many times, they would have been blown up a long time ago.
Agree?
June 4th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
I actually think Detroit would be a contender even in the West if Rasheed played like a superstar. Let’s not forget that besides their opportunistic championship, they did have an excellent chance of winning a second title the year after.
I agree with you that Detroit is a flawed team, but as you’ve mentioned somewhat in your article, it’s mostly because of their psyche and their lack of a superstar than because of a lack of talent. If Rasheed, even after a poor series, dominates games 6 and 7, then the Pistons have a shot at a second championship.
I think the safest way of summing up the Pistons is that they’re better than you think they are, much worse than they think they are, and nowhere near as good as they could be.
June 4th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Erick,
“I think the safest way of summing up the Pistons is that they’re better than you think they are, much worse than they think they are, and nowhere near as good as they could be.”
You said it all with one sentence.
That’s a perfect description of them.
If you have a moment, check out my Lakers-Celtics preview.