NBA Finals Preview

» June 4, 2008 6:09 PM | By Brandon Hoffman

Red Auerbach versus Phil Jackson, Wilt versus Russell, Magic versus Bird, the NBA’s best offense versus its best defense, the NBA MVP versus the Defensive Player of the Year.

The storylines are endless.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics met twice during the regular season with their last match-up taking place on December 30th of last year.

The Lakers were 19-11 at the time and riding a four game win streak but they were nothing like the team that heads into the NBA Finals with only three playoff losses.

The Lakers have played 52 regular season and 15 playoff games since their last meeting.

Boston has played 53 regular season and 20 playoff games since then.

That’s 67 and 73 games a piece – nearly an entire NBA season (82 games) has passed.

Boston owns homecourt advantage after winning an NBA regular season best 66 games but was pushed to the limit by the 8th seeded Atlanta Hawks and 4th seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the opening rounds.

Los Angeles captured the Western Conference’s #1 seed in what was arguably the most competitive conference in NBA history – in large part because they were able to acquire Pau Gasol from the Grizzlies in February. With Gasol in the lineup, the Lakers are 33-7 (21-4 during the regular season, 12-3 during the playoffs). [Read]


23 Responses to “NBA Finals Preview”

  1. Tsunami Says:

    Very good analysis Hoffman. The best I have read yet (and I have ready many)

    The only thing that I disagree with is the X-factor. I think it will be the bench guys. Odom should play well and give the Lakers consistant production. The X-factor (at least the way I understand x-factors) will be the Lakers bench. If they play well, it will be Lakers in 4 or 5. If they struggle, the series could go 7 games.

    I can NOT see Boston winning in LA. They won’t score enough.

    Pierce the X-Factor for Boston. He’s the kind of player who can become unconscious despite decent defense (see game 7 against Cleveland) or he can be a non-factor against poor defense.

    Again, good read. But I think your prediction is too conservative. I don’t think the Celtics were a better team than the CAVS much less the Jazz, and LA handled them. Boston will get throttled.

  2. Hoffman Says:

    Tsunami,

    Thanks!

    It’s always nice when we agree on something. Maybe because it’s so infrequent.

    You’re right, Odom “should play well.” But Odom should be a lot of things and he doesn’t always come through.

    I write a lot about this guy or that guys talent but I think Odom is one of the five most talented guys in the league. More talented than Kobe even. When he’s aggressive, the Lakers are almost impossible to defeat.

    Judging by their performance in the playoffs I have to agree with your comparison of Boston and Utah. They look similar but anything can happen in this one and the Celtics have a lot of veteran players.

    It will be interesting to see how big a role Posey, Cassell, and PJ Brown play in this one.

  3. A-Train Says:

    Hoff… you’re crazy.

    “Odom is one of the five most talented guys in the league. More talented than Kobe even.”

    Dude. I watched this guy play in high school–he’s good friends with one my good friends– and I have always followed his career closely. Honestly, I always thought Speedy Claxton, his teammates at Christ the King High, was better. Lamar always had this thing about him where he would disappoint you. He was always the star player who never came up big when the spotlight was on him.

    Let’s be real. For his height, he handles the ball very well– that’s where it ends. He’s an average shooter at best. He’s an average defender at best. He’s an average rebounder at best.

    I mean, there isn’t one thing the guy does particularly better than most. The thing is he’s able to do many different things well ENOUGH, at his height, to get attention.

    Honestly, I see a helluva lot more potential in Charlie Villanueva.

    Elsewhere– I agree with Tsunami about the benches. If the Celtics bench comes up big, and if they can help steal one in L.A., this could go seven games.

    I’m picking Lakers in six.

    KG has never ever been a winner, nor has Pierce, and I don’t see that changing. Both players do not have that extra gear all of the truly great players possess. They cannot take over a game. They cannot will their teams to victory.

    As far as entertainment value is concerned this will go down as a classic battle. But truth be told, these two teams are complete jokes in the grand scheme of things.

    The Lakers will win and Kobe will get this ridiculous amount of hype and the Jordan comparisons will resurface, etc., and it will be very hard for younger cats to keep it all in context. I will be very annoyed.

    The one thing that has impressed me about the Lakers this season is the energy off of their bench. People keep talking Kobe, Kobe, but the truth is the Lakers might just have the best bench in the league. Vujacic is one of the best shooters in the league, Farmar is tough, Walton is intelligent, Turiaf brings an active energetic body… I mean, I feel these guys are the real MVP, not Kobe.

    Ultimately, it was the emergence of this super bench that pushed the Lakers up the hill. Not Kobe. This team has carried him more so than he has carried it.

  4. Hoffman Says:

    A-Train,

    You are the most pessimistic basketball fan I’ve ever encountered.

    And I love (not like that, not that there’s anything wrong with that…) ya’ for it.

    I have one question: are you going to give Kobe credit for ANYTHING this season?

    The guy is shooting better than 50% in the playoffs. He shot 53% versus the Spurs, who you said would trounce the Lakers.

    I mean come on Train…give credit where credit is due…

  5. Tsunami Says:

    Hoff,
    If I may…

    Kobe has been outstanding in the playoffs. In a sense, he has justified his MVP (which I still don’t think he deserved for the regular season)

    But you and I both know that Laker nation was in his shorts long before he brought 53% shooting.

    In some ways I have enjoyed Kobe much more since the Gasol trade – he has been more efficient, more rested, more dynamic – not just a chucker.

    But the Kobe fans are just too much to take anymore. Not people like you, but the hyperventilating kind – people that drove me away from FoxSports. People that say Derek Fisher is more exciting to watch than LeBron James and that Kobe is superior to Jordan in every way.

    And I do agree with A-Train that the rest of the Laker team is not getting NEARLY enough credit for how good they are, from Phil Jackson keeping everyone together, Derek Fisher’s leadership, the bench, the management. It’s really all been about Kobe, and I understand why, he’s the superstar, but I hated Nash when everything good that happened in Phoenix was accredited to him, and I can see A-Train is getting frustrated with the Kobe Karousel of hype that keeps going round and round.

  6. Tsunami Says:

    I guess to me, the only nauseating thing is the notion that the Lakers went from a middle of the road team to the best team in the league SIMPLY BECAUSE of Kobe Bryant, because of his “personal journey”, when I would tend towards “in spite of” Kobe Bryant.

    Kobe’s doing what he is supposed to do, and his talents are magnified in this highly fluid offense, so I can not be critical of his game whatsoever – there’s really nothing to be critical about right now – he’s been close to perfect – he’s done exactly what he’s supposed to do, and that’s basketball. Players thrive when they are in the right system, but in my opinion, ONE player is never SOLEY RESPONSIBLE for that system. The closest people are those with absurd usage rates, but even they have 4 others out there with them at any given time.

    Let’s face it, it’s easy to trust teammates when they are sweet. It’s easy to get along with management when they land one of the best centers in the league, it’s easy to smile when everyone is winning.

    I’ll give Kobe kredit where kredit is due, but I’m going to keep his dominance in perspective, and not pretend like what he is capable of is what he has in fact delivered the majority of his career.

  7. Hoffman Says:

    Tsunami,

    I agree that the Lakers supporting cast and Phil Jackson deserve more credit.

    And I don’t buy into all of the Kobe “learned to trust his teammates.” Trusting your teammates is complete BS. Smush Parker and Kwame Brown were in the Lakers starting lineup. Was Kobe supposed to keep passing the ball to those guys when Smush was bricking wide open shots and Kwame was fumbling the ball out of bounds? Of course not, Kobe did what he had to do to keep that team afloat. And I’m telling you, no one else could have done what he did.

    He scored 62 in 3 quarters, 81 in one game, he scored 50 pts TEN times last year! That’s amazing.

    The area in which I think Kobe has improved the most is the mental aspect of the game. In seasons past, it was easy to see that he didn’t have any type of camaraderie with his teammates. That’s not the case any longer. He looks at peace and he should be because he’s surrounded by a great team.

    Could he have handled things differently and been more likable towards his teammates the previous two seasons? Yes, but I don’t think anyone realizes the type of intensity Bryant carries and his will to win. It’s really almost supernatural. You don’t accomplish the things he’s accomplished unless you devote yourself COMPLETELY to the game. Not to many players in NBA history have done that. And to work that hard and be rewarded by a pathetic supporting cast must have been extremely difficult.

    I also believe his technical foul total during the regular season and the fact that he would have been suspended had he received one more was a blessing in disguise. He’s done a much better job of controlling his emotions on the floor.

    If there was anything that I couldn’t stand about Bryant before, it was his constant complaining and temper tantrums toward the officials.

  8. Sensei1 Says:

    Hoffman, as always you deliver Front Page worthy commentary. Thank you. As I’m yping this up I’m reminding myself to not be subjective in my commentary. I think thats whats truly annoying about most so-called journalist and definitely with 98% of fans.

    The Lakers are are where they are because of Kobe Bryant. Period. Yes, Kup Kake made the trade for Gasol and we thank him. Yes, Bynum improved his game because he finally dedicated himself to getting better and we thank him. Derek Fisher is credited with being the anchor in the Locker Room and we all know he was needed so we thank him. The best bench in the league plays with alot of energy and no discipline at times but still manages to keep a game even. Much kudos to them. But I think it’s absolutely ridiculous for anyone to say that Kobe isn’t the reason this team is where it is today. Let me explain. A few years back every beer stand fan (they know who and what they are), lousy, never have played sports writer, and most has been and never should have been analyst were screaming that Kobe doesn’t make his team mates better. He doesn’t involve himself with the team after hours, he shoots to much, he’s not shooting enough, he ran Shaq out of town, and on and on. I have one question for the debate though: If Kobe wasn’t on the roster, where would the Lakers be right now? I won’t answer, I’ll just let the crushing truth of it all sit out there. Kobe has done just about everything this team needed him to do this year and for some it’s still not the “right” thing or enough to satisfy them. What a joke. (You should do a piece on the mindset of fans and how obtuse most are. I’m sure that would bring the love.) Bottom line is the Lakers are a team with the games BEST player at the helm. This team is winning and losing as a team and thats whats making them into the Champions that they are.

    Now on to more important things like who will win this series. I predict the Lakers in 5. Game 1 = LA 108 Bos 103 Game 2 = LA 107 Bos 115 Game 3 = LA 120 Bos 110 Game 4 LA 100 Boston 98 Game 5 LA 101 Bos 96 When a Phil Jackson team wins game one it’s game over. You’ll note that game three is the highest scoring game for the Lakers; thats because the intensity level in the 1st game at home for the Finals will be out of this world. Boston should not even but Rasheed decided to take Estrogen a couple of games and Detroit paid for it. Boston should have lost in Detroit and they know it. That will not happen in LA. The LA bench plays a lot better under the bright lights of Staples and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
    Everyone is talking about who is the x-factor. I don’t think it’s who; I believe it’s what. That what is heart and a fearless attitude in the face of adversity. KG and Ray Ray do not have that. Someone said it above that KG has never been a winner and I absolutely agree. Bad thing for the Lakers is that Pau is so tender down low until it seems like he’s a woman in a mans body sometimes. That is an x-factor. Which big man will have Kobe’s DNA injected come game time?

  9. NBA FINALS PREVIEW at Heard in the Cheap Seats Says:

    [...] idea which way I’m leaning.  This is another series of interesting match-ups and storylines.  There’s the obvious historical significance.  Although, even though hearing Lakers and Celtics gets me excited (in a non sexual way), I do [...]

  10. Sensei1 Says:

    Thank God the games is played on the floor and not actually in some of these articles. That would truly be painful.

  11. Hoffman Says:

    Sensei1

    As always, you bring great perspective.

    There were tons (too many to count) of fans saying Kobe would never win another ring just last season. Most said it didn’t matter who the Lakers had, Kobe wouldn’t share the basketball, he couldn’t make his teammates better, etc., etc. I’d like to know where those people are now.

    I think Kobe is essentially playing the same game.

    But he has matured as a person.

    People forget that he’s only 29 years old. MJ didn’t win his first ring until he was 28.

    There’s a learning curve for most players.

    LeBron James and Magic Johnson got ‘it’ at an early age.

    James still needs to fine tune his game but he has a maturity beyond his years.

    Kobe’s gets ‘it’ now and he’s surrounded by a young, championship caliber supporting cast.

    That must be a scary thought for the rest of the league.

  12. Sensei1 Says:

    Agreed Hoffman. It seemed that Kobe would be taken out into the street and stoned for demanding excellence. I was always amused at how that happened. The man’s intensity and desire to be the best engulfed everyone and everything around him and people who don’t expect much from themselves couldn’t and dared not try to understand it or him.

    The people who hated him and on him the most are the ones (I believe) idolized him. They discovered that he wasn’t perfect and didn’t neccesarily care about what others thought as long as he was winning. This realization hurt some deeply it appears because that level of hate and disdain is born of a deep rooted hurt or injustice. Kobe wasn’t exactly what the people wanted him to be so they turned their ire on him. I agree with you when you say he’s playing the same game essentially. So if that is true and I believe it is, why is this year so much different???? Winning. Most everyone is getting what they want and that keeps alot of hate at bay.

  13. Tsunami Says:

    Regardless of what I may have SAID in the past regarding Kobe Bryant’s intangibles, I really think it’s useless to argue feverishly for or against someone “trusting his teammates”. It’s easy to defer when you have star-caliber players around you, it’s not easy to do when you have scrubs missing wide open jumpers. So I wish people would give that a rest. He’s no iverson, and he’s no nash, he’s somewhere in the middle of the selfish ruler.

    I’ve always thought Kobe to be the best scorer in the game. I’ve never thought his passing was near the level it should be considering the amount of time he has the ball in his hands. And I’m not just talking about assist to turnover ratio, I’m talking about the quality and creativity of his passing.

    To me, when Kobe’s in a situation where defenses can zone in on him, he is reduced to chucking up shots around 44% over people. You look at the Lakers now and you simply cannot overplay on Bryant because it will be layup drills with the way the Lakers move the ball.

    All I’m saying is Kobe is dominating now moreso because his strengths (deadly assassin scorer) are maximized and his weaknesses(for him), non-creative passing, forcing, lack of playmaking are completely hidden with the quality of his teammates.

    In short – Kobe is the same dominant scorer (and on-ball defender) he was last year, but with this team, he doesn’t need to bail them out all the time by forcing shots. Pau Gasol is the biggest difference between the 2k8 Lakers and the 2k7 Lakers, not Kobe Bryant.

    Of course it feels so much better to weave a grand tale of redemption and of scaling his own personal everest. But in the end, Kobe has always been an elite player.

  14. A-Train Says:

    A pessimist? :(

    I’ve just seen better, man. I’m no hater. Trust me, whether Kobe is a nice guy or a complete jerk doesn’t matter to me. I judge him based on what he shows me on the court. And I’m telling you, the guy is so awful in comparison to the greats of the 80’s and 90’s. It’s just that he’s playing in an era that’s so weak, he’s head-and-shoulders better than the rest.

    Ok, I’ll stop for now.

    But I agree with Tsunami 100 percent here. Kobe this year is the same as Kobe last year. He’s good. The big difference is the emergence of his bench, particularly Vujacic, Turiaf and Farmar.

    Kobe is doing what he should be doing, being a superstar scorer. Just don’t give me any of the religious nonsense like how he changed or trusted his teammates, etc.

  15. A-Train Says:

    KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE KOBE.

    What happened?

    See, that fourth-quarter meltdown/garbage play of sorts?

    MJ never did that.

  16. Tsunami Says:

    A-Train, one below-average game doesn’t make or break someone’s legacy – especially not a forgetable game 1 that featured sloppy play from both sides.

    Kobe just missed a lot shots he can make and that’s going to happen sometimes.

    9 for 26…If LeBron had done that we’d be hearing all about how he can’t shoot.

    Well Kobe did it, and we all know he can shoot. Bottom line? Superstars can have off nights. And actually he didn’t have a bad floor game, I thought he played well, had some nice assists.

    And yes, MJ had plenty of moments where he went cold.

    2 interesting comments by Jeff Van Gundy.

    He criticized the all defensive first team accolade given to Bryant saying something to the effect of Bryant being a choatic defender who gets lots of help, and that Shane Battier deserved it.

    The other was when Van Gundy said Bryant is the game’s best closer. I disagree with that, although he has been very good in 4th quarters during the playoffs this season.

    As far as the game, Paul Pierce had to be hamming up that injury. No way you can be in a situation where you can not put any weight on EITHER FOOT and then 5 minutes later you are jumpin and ready to go knocking down transition threes.

    Officiating is going to be huge in this series. Both of these teams overplay on defense and try to force a lot of turnovers by reaching in and slapping. Between Rondo, Fisher, Vujacic, Bryant, Pierce, Posey, and Cassell there’s a lot of grabbing going on.

    Officiating didn’t make the difference in this game, but I can see it having a huge impact. And both of these teams have emotional superstars who can’t handle not getting bailed out, or worse, getting whistled incorrectly – I’ll be interested to see how it plays out.

  17. Tsunami Says:

    The game felt eerily similar to the Cavs vs. Celtics game 1. The Celtics didn’t exact impose their will, and Lakers had a chance to steal it at the end, but Kobe couldn’t hit jumpers, and he didn’t get a whole lot of help in the 4th.

    I still just don’t think Boston has a chance in this series. They are the best defensive team in the league (better than SA – probably because Ginobili was clearly injured) but they just don’t seem to have any plan in the waning moments of close games. Even tonight, they had the crowd, the energy, Kobe on the bench, and they were unable to put away the Lakers. It took the Lakers missing a whole lotta shots and the Celtics getting to the stripe to seal the victory. That combination isn’t going to happen 3 more times. Someone has to step up and hit big shots in the closing seconds.

  18. Hoffman Says:

    A-Train,

    Who besides MJ do you believe would have put Kobe to shame? If you say Clyde Drexler I’ll burn this site to the ground.

    :)

    As for your MJ/Kobe 4th quarter comment, come on, it’s almost as if people think MJ never missed a shot. The guy was the greatest — no question — but he had his flaws too.

  19. Hoffman Says:

    Tsunami,

    Shane Battier deserved 1st team All-NBA defense but he’s a shooting forward. If he makes it, Bruce Bowen doesn’t, not Kobe.

    Bryant had about 4 jumpers that went in and rattled back out. He was also fouled a few times on his release.

    But the officials were letting them play.

  20. A-Train Says:

    Maybe that’s what it is, the fact Kobe is a two-guard. Of course, I can say Jordan, Pippen, Isiah, Magic, Bird, Stockton, Malone, Kidd, McHale, Duncan, etc., but few if any of these players were solely scorers.

    So, maybe that’s what it is. Because when I think about guys who were just scoring guards, I can’t think up many names. Reggie Miller was great but one-dimensional. Mitch Richmond had a few amazing years but he wasn’t the playmaker Kobe is. Penny was only good for five years. Etc.

    So yeah, I guess now– you’d think I’d thought about this earlier– I understand why people make the MJ comparison.

    Drexler is up there with Kobe though as far as the comparisons to Jordan go. I mean, Kobe is more dynamic and will go down as the better player, but it’s not like Drexler was some scrub. But both were/are light years away from being MJ. I think that’s what it is that bugs me so much about the comparison.

    Kobe might be the closest thing to MJ in terms of a dynamic scoring guard who can do so many things better than most, but he’s nowhere near the player MJ was. I mean, Jordan was like the best shooter ever, best defender ever, best dunker ever, best clutch performer ever, best competitor ever, etc.

    I think Allen Iverson is every bit as dynamic as Kobe is, he’s just too small and a non-factor on defense. But if Iverson were 6-6, I’d say he’d be very close to what Kobe is as a scorer.

    I’m a T-Mac guy. I think if T-Mac didn’t lose his back and legs, he’d be better than Kobe today. He’s a better shooter, playmaker, and clutch performer. But T-Mac is half the way he could be because of injuries.

    So yeah, in the big picture, Kobe is good (Elliott Kalb ranked him the 18th best player ever). Who knows, maybe he retires in the top ten. Definitely in the top five shooting guards of all-time, behind Jordan, Robertson, West and Barry.

    As for the comment you made about MJ going cold: MJ went cold sometimes, sure, but I don’t remember him ever going cold when it mattered. In every single fourth quarter he would take over. Kobe has had some great performances, but I swear it was like MJ did it every single time. The opposing team knew it was coming and couldn’t stop it. Bird was like that too. I’d say coming through in the clutch 35% of the time would be a great percentage. But these guys– Bird, Jordan, Reggie, etc.– did it like 85% of the time. It was truly a sick knack they had.

    Last night–in my opinion–was the biggest game of Kobe’s life to date. His first Finals game without Shaq. He played miserably. Tsunami mentioned a good floor game, but that wasn’t the case. He finished with four turnovers, but I swear he should have had at least seven or eight. Lucky for him on several possessions where he lost the ball, it was recovered by a teammate.

    I expect at least one monster game from him in L.A. He has to step it up in Game Two.

  21. Tsunami Says:

    T-Mac is not a better shooter than Kobe.

  22. A-Train Says:

    Kobe drives a lot more and has a good shooting game from the free throw line area. If he’s outside, he only really shoots threes. T-Mac, on the other hand, is predominantly a jump shooter who most of the time pulls up from 18-20 feet.

    We all agree Ray Allen is a great shooter, right? Imagine if he were a first option player like Kobe or T-Mac and he was forced to shoot most of his shots off the dribble from 18-20 feet. His shooting percentage would drop to around 41%. When was the last time you saw Allen shoot anything but a wide-open jumper?

    Career shooting percentages:

    Kobe – .453 FG, .340 3PTFG
    Allen- .446 FG, .397 3PTFG
    T-Mac- .437 FG, .337 3PTFG

    I feel they’re all comparable.

    Game on the line, 5 seconds on the clock, I’ll take T-Mac over Kobe every time.

    If degree of difficulty becomes a factor, I don’t think there’s a better shooter in the past ten years than Allen Iverson. He takes shots people shouldn’t even attempt, and he makes them. Almost every shot is off the dribble and in a defender’s face.

  23. Tsunami Says:

    Ray Allen has been a first option most of his career.

    Allen is a shooter like Reggie Miller.

    Kobe is just a better shooter than T-mac.

    If FT shooting wasn’t enough of an indicator, he shoots a higher percentage from the floor as well.

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