Loading ...From Henry Abbot of True Hoop:
“Pick a successful NBA player. Almost anyone. Chauncey Billups, Kevin Garnett, Steve Nash … they have all had unbelievable bumps in very long roads. And they are all A-List athletes today because, unlike most people, they did not let those bumps knock them off course.
Looking for that quality, in a morning workout, is like picking who’s going to win a marathon based on watching people line up at the starting line. It’s some information. But not much.” [Read]
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Hoff - something’s been bothering me for a while. Why is height such an issue in the draft? Look at guys with Tony Parker’s skill set: small, lightning quick, good finisher. Guys who can break down defenses. I can think of two guys like this right now - DaShaun Wood - last year’s Horizon League MVP who just finished up an MVP-like season in Europe and was just offered a 1 million dollar contract from an Italian team - and Ty Lawson, who no one is talking about in the draft.
What separates these guys from Tony Parker besides 2 inches? Is the height a factor on defense? Look at Rajon Rondo - lightning quick, and 6-1. And he can’t even shoot, he’s can’t finish - and he was one of the most effective players on the court in the Finals because of his quickness and defense. So the size shouldn’t be that much of an issue should it?
Why won’t teams take chances on small quick players - instead opting for size and length.
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Somebody just asked that question of Fran Frashilla in his ESPN.com chat today, and I think the answer is fairly insightful, so I’ll put it here.
“Most fans would be shocked at how quick and athletic the NBA is, including its big guys. THe athleticism of NBA players really shrinks the floor and makes it difficult for small players to get a lot done, unless he has exceptional quickness. The Tony Parkers, Chris Pauls and, to an extent, the Steve Nashes are an anomaly in a league where 6-8 and 6-9 guys can run and jump with the best athletes in the world. You really have to be exceptional to be a small player in that league.”
A few things I can add to that.
-Teams are much more concerned about wingspan and standing reach than they are about height. Guys with long arms (like Rondo) can play bigger than the height they’re listed at.
- Finding guys who can finish like Parker/Paul or shoot like Nash is exceedingly difficult. Parker and Paul are truly two of the most creative below-the-rim finishers the game has ever seen. Guys like that don’t grow on trees.
- As for the two guys you mentioned, neither has a good standing reach (in fact, Wood’s is the 4th worst ever recorded at the combine), and neither has close to the skill level of a Parker/Paul or the defensive acumen of Rondo. Lawson is, in fact, out of the draft (he withdrew his name monday) and was likely to be picked in the 20-30 region if he’d stayed. Wood has the double problem of being very small and playing against mediocre competition. Lighting up the Horizon League isn’t that impressive, and the Italian league he played in last year isn’t as good as some of the other European leagues.
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Haha - yeah i asked that question - nice to know we run in the same circles xphoenix.
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I figured it might’ve been you once I saw the (Cleveland) label :P.
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
X - a few questions for you.
1.) Wood is the best finisher I have ever seen live. His around the basket creativity definitely rivals Tony Parker. It’s why they call him “Little Tony” in Europe.
2.) He is a better shooter than Parker.
3.) He (IMHO) a better passer than Parker.
Obviously I can’t speak for his defense - and I’m sure the lack of wingspan makes it difficult to put ball pressure on passing point guards/get in passing lanes.
However, one thing the Horizon League is noted for is Defense. Butler is ranked (probably overrated) every year because of Defense. Everyone in the Horizon plays solid D - and in his senior year, D Wood was the best passer, ball-handler, shooter, and finisher on WSU - in other words - GOOD DEFENSES could load up on him. And yet he still torched them.
He torched international competition this past year. Obviously I don’t think he could be a star in the NBA - but not even land a roster spot? A lightning quick guard that can finish and break down defenses?
To me, the barrier HAS to come on the defensive end right? I mean, I can’t see the size limited players with THESE skill sets offensively. It’s not like Tony Parker and DaShaun Wood make their mark by shooting 3’s over outstretched arms. They are blowing by people.
As for the wingspan thing, I didn’t know that but I believe it - I’m not a big guy (5′11″), but I’ve stood toe to toe with Dashaun Wood and I’m taller/bigger than him.
Watching the game, it just feels like if you have a guy that can break down defenses at will with quickness then it opens up a world of opportunity for the rest of the team. Rondo can’t shoot or finish - but he can catalyze the Celtics offense just by getting past his man and into the paint. Obviously, Rondo is a HUGE upgrade on the defensive end over the players I mentioned - but it feels like teams don’t give small guys a chance.
Your thoughts.
June 23rd, 2008 at 7:10 pm
I’ll admit, I haven’t seen a whole lot of Wood’s playing. However, the fact that he played in college for 4 years, went to both the Portsmouth Invitational and the NBA Pre-Draft Camp, and still didn’t really generate interest from NBA teams is a telling sign to me. If he’d put up those kind of numbers in the ACC or Big East, I have no doubt he would’ve had a chance on an NBA roster. However, guys who play against mediocre competition and don’t put up otherwordly numbers have a hard road to the league, and being 5′10 certainly doesn’t help his case. Finishing against NBA shot blockers is an entirely different story than finishing against guys in the Horizon league or a mediocre Italian league, and those 2-3 extra inches can make a big difference.
Defensively is definitely the place where it comes into play most often though. Guys like Earl Boykins and Nate Robinson are exceptionally quick (and Robinson is a ridiculous athlete for his height), but that doesn’t prevent people from shooting right over top of them or backing them down into the post. It’s very unlikely that a guy Wood’s height would ever be able to be a starter, and in that case you’ve got to consider what he brings as a bench player. Boykins has been able to catch on because he can shoot the lights out and space the floor, Wood doesn’t give you that. He’s more of a high-volume guy who needs the ball in his hands, and that isn’t usually what you’re looking for in a bench player, especially if it’s a 5′10 guy who is going to have defensive problems.
I hope that’s a somewhat coherent answer, I’m kind of out of it right now.
June 23rd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
I can say this for certain, I am REALLY tired of reading about all the potential of big man DeAndre Jordan and why he should be drafted in the lottery. Potential?? Why cuz he is big and tall?? The dude couldn’t even crack the starting lineup at TEXAS A&M and hardly played 5 minutes during there time in the NCAA tourney…yet he is supposed to get drafted over big men Roy Hibbert (the next Mutombo??), Robin Lopez, Kosta Koufos, Nathan Jawai and even Joey Dorsey?
Speaking of which - why is Joey Dorsey so low on everyone’s mock drafts. Dude is an exact replica of Kendrick Perkins (skillwise) and was just in the NCAA finals…I guess there are character concerns, though…
I highly doubt DeAndre Jordan gets drafted as high as some predict, but Saer Sene, Patrick O’Bryant, and Spencer Hawes all beg to differ…
June 23rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Tsunami - since we are talking about height issues in the draft, what do you think of the plethora of combo-guards in first round of this draft??
Consider O.J. Mayo, Jarryd Bayless, Eric Gordon, Russell Westbrook, and Mario Chalmers. (though Mario has tried to set himself apart by declaring he is strictly a PG in the NBA - which is very much true…the same could probably be said for Westbrook, too.)
Of those 5 guys, who will work out and who will be a bust?? My money goes on Westbrook and Chalmers doing just fine by settling in at the PG position…but for the other 3, I think they will be trying to play the under-sized SG spot and will be blinded by the thought that they will be the next Dwayne Wade. The real pressure is on Mayo, who is the most-hyped player since LeBron…
without a doubt, I think Bayless will be the flat-out bust of that bunch, so I’m REALLY hoping the Sonics don’t draft him (cuz if the Sonics move to OKC, Im only a short 4-hour drive from live NBA action! But I really cant get behind a player like Bayless…)
June 24th, 2008 at 7:35 am
King_Kaun - you know I saw Mayo play a lot in HS and in College and I really thought he would blow me away at USC - and he just didn’t. We’ll see what he brings to an NBA table - but for now, I’m not banking on him becoming a superstar.
Hollinger isn’t excited about Gordon or Westbrook at all - yet does think Chalmers will do alright.
I’m interested to see who drafts Mike Green - get a horizon league guy into the NBA.
June 24th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Kaun - 1) If you haven’t been paying attention lately, I’ll clue you in. Texas A&M is actually a good program now.
2) If you think Roy Hibbert is the next Mutumbo, you’re absolutely fooling yourself. Mutmbo ripped down 10-12 RPG and had 4-5 BPG in his two good seasons at Georgetown. Hibbert isn’t half the talent that Mutumbo was, nor is he nearly as good an athlete. Hibbert could develop into a solid guy off the bench, especially since he’s got some skill passing the ball, but I don’t see him becoming a starting-caliber center on a good team.
3) I think teams will have to take a hard look at Dorsey in the second round. He’s got great physical tools (though undersized, his standing reach is the same as Al Horford), but he just isn’t always motivated. He has the potential to be a Ben Wallace-type defensive presence, but he gets in foul trouble too often and he doesn’t always come ready to play. His offensive skills are also slim-to-none, so it’s hard to justify taking him in the first round of a draft this deep.
4) Come on now, you can’t put Spencer Hawes in that category yet. Dude is legitimately skilled and he was injured to start last year.
5) Gordon isn’t a combo guard, he’s a short 2-guard and doesn’t profess to be anything other than that. I’d rank that group like this
Mayo
Gordon
Bayless
Westbrook
Chalmers
I think Mayo is without a doubt the 3rd best pick in the draft. He showed last year that he can turn it up on the defensive end, he’s got decent floor vision, and he’s got a beautiful stroke on his jumpshot with ridiculous range. He gets nit-picked a lot more than others because he’s been on the radar for so long, but I think he’s got a great chance to be a quality player.
Gordon is as strong a guard as I saw in college basketball last year. He’s got tremendous straight-line speed and is so strong that he just bulls other guards out of the way to finish at the rim. He’ll be a tremendous transition player, and he’s got a great stroke from outside.
I’m not a huge Bayless fan, and I think 4 is definitely too high for him, but he’s still a good prospect. The comparison people like to use is Monta Ellis, and I think that’s not a bad comp. They have similar body types, and Bayless is a better shooter where Ellis is a stronger finisher.
I don’t believe in the Westbrook hype, and I might even rate Chalmers above him. Westbrook is the better athlete and has the higher ceiling, but I think Chalmers is the better player. He has great defensive anticipation, a solid jumper, and he’s willing to fit in with the team.
Tsunami - The more I read John Hollinger, the less I respect him as a statistician. He does some ridiculously arbitrary things. His draft stuff is, quite frankly, stupid, and I would put zero stock in it.
June 24th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
xphoenix87 -
1. I actually live right in the middle of the Big 12. I followed Texas A&M fairly close this year - I have to, I work for a local newspaper. While I was impressed with them as a program, DeAndre Jordan hardly played…and when he did, he hardly produced. I’m just sayin…why didn’t he tap into any of this “potential” in college?? Why did he only play a total of like 7 minutes in the NCAA tournament? (2 games…)
2. I absolutely think Hibbert will at LEAST be the next Samuel Dalembert…10 and 10, that is.
3. agreed
4. Yeah, Hawes is more of a prediction. but you are right, I am jumping the gun on him…
5. Write down this prediction: Chalmers will NOT be the worst out of those 5 players, 5 years from now. In fact, I bet he is the first out of those 5 players to win a ring… (Westbrook second…)
Im glad we agree on Bayless. Many people believe Gordon will be the best of this 5!! So tough to figure it out right now!
I gotta sneaky suspicion about Mayo. Im thinking he will put up the numbers…but not the victories. Maybe I am wrong. Perhaps if you pair him with an all-star…but I just question his motivation - at least after he gets the big bucks, etc. if…
overall, good stuff! thanks!
June 24th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
correction: DeAndre Jordan played 5 minutes in the first NCAA game vs. BYU (1 rebound, 0, 0), but actually played 15 minutes vs. UCLA (4 turnovers, 4 rebounds, 6 points).
June 24th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
1) I’m not saying you’re wrong about Jordan, I’m just saying the statement “The dude couldn’t even crack the starting lineup at TEXAS A&M” implies some disdain for the program, and Texas A&M is definitely a legit program right now.
2) I think you’re confusing Hibbert with someone who is, you know, even remotely athletic. He’s 7′2 and not a particularly dominant shot blocker or rebounder, that’s not a good sign. The best things he has going for him are his height and his passing ability, which is very strong for a big man.
5) I can see Chalmers turning into a solid starter or sixth man on a good team, but he’s not going to be an All-Star. All of those other guys definitely have All-Star potential.
So much of these guys’ success will depend on where they end up. I think Mayo would be a perfect fit in Seattle, where Durant is clearly the star, and he can concentrate on doing things beside being the primary scorer.
June 25th, 2008 at 8:09 am
If I were a betting man, I would put my money on OJ Mayo becoming the best player of all the draft prospects. I didn’t like OJ when I watched him in college but I think his game will translate to the NBA’s style of play.
I watched Beasley a few times and came away very impressed.
I only watched Rose in the Final Four and honestly, I wasn’t that impressed. He’s explosive but I didn’t see him put his stamp on games like great point guards who have come before him.
June 25th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Hollinger is surprisingly good at subjectively analyzing players - which is totally against his reputation. But if you read his yearly previews about the players, his scouting reports are excellent.
I’m not putting too much stock into the numbers part of his draft analysis - but I didn’t see all these guys play this past year, and I trust his scouting.
I think Hollinger’s pre-draft stuff just gets rid of all the “upside” and focuses on college production.
June 25th, 2008 at 10:52 am
I agree…Chalmers will never be an All-Star. I’m thinking more like a solid contributor IF NOT STARTER on a NBA title-winning team.
When you talk about someone being successful, I guess there are really two different measurements: stats and all-star games….or winning rings.
Mario falls with the later…
June 25th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Tsunami - I actually think his yearly individual player scouting reports are the best work he does.
However, his numerical studies on the draft are, quite frankly, ridiculously flawed.
Kaun -
“When you talk about someone being successful, I guess there are really two different measurements: stats and all-star games…or winning rings.
Mario falls with the later…”
…unless he ends up on a bad team, in which case he’ll spend his career toiling along like so many others before him. He’s a solid role player, but he’s never going to be the guy who propels you to a championship.
June 25th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Hey Everyone - keep Brian Windhorst (Cavs beat writer) in your thoughts and prayers. He is in the ICU with some sort of acute lung disease or adult respitory distress syndrome - doctors don’t really know.
He’s a great person and the sports blogging community needs him back on his feet ASAP.
Thanks
June 25th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
bummer to hear that, Tsunami. He will be in our thoughts!!
GET WELL BRIAN!!!!!!!!!