Ian Thomsen of CNNSI.com is reporting that Olympiakos is planning to make a run at LeBron James in 2010. Olympiakos isn’t hamstrung by a salary cap or luxury tax and could offer James a contract in excess of anything he could receive in the States.
From a financial standpoint, this makes sense. James could pocket $40-50 million tax-free dollars for a season or two and return to the NBA having expanded his brand globally. Given the changes in currency exchange rates, James’ biggest endorser — Nike — might even profit more from increased demand in Europe.
Dollars and cents aside, James’ legacy would be tarnished by spurning the NBA for Europe. At 25 years of age (he’s 23 now), LeBron would be entering the prime of his career. In order to achieve global celebrity, James has to win, and win at the highest level. Playing in the Euroleague for a season or two would likely increase James’ endorsement income and net worth immediately, but it would have negative implications over the long-run.
No, I don’t think the NBA has to worry about LeBron signing a contract to play overseas.
But I do think it’s only a matter of time before the Euroleague signs a LeBron James like talent before he’s eligible for the draft. James was the first sophomore selected to the USA Today All-USA First Team. As a junior, James was named USA Today and Gatorade boys’ high school basketball Player of the Year — becoming the first high school player to win those awards in consecutive seasons after capturing them again following his senior year.
Two of LeBron’s games were televised by ESPN and he appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated.
In short, James had the skills to play in the NBA long before he graduated from high school.
What if Olympiacos had offered a multi-million dollar contract when James was still in high school?
At the very least, James would have been forced listened. And turning down an offer of say — $10 million tax free dollars a year with opt out clauses after each season — would have been difficult to do.
European players are identified as early as age 12 and immersed in professional basketball by the time they’re 16. Under control agreements consist of European clubs agreeing to cover a player’s living and training expenses and schooling in exchange for the rights to the player. Former number one pick Andrea Bargnani signed his first professional contract at the age of 16. Dirk Nowitzki and Tony Parker were professional players long before they turned 18.
The Euroleague has already begun to raid the NBA of mid-level talent. They’re not going to stop there. The next logical step is to go after a top-tier superstar. If they can’t succeed in luring a top-tier player from the NBA, why not go after them long before they’re eligible for the draft?
August 5th, 2008 at 12:18 am
I absolutely agree here.
If LeBron jumps to the Euros for a year or two, many fans would never forgive him for ‘turning his back on the league’
however, the NEXT big thing could easily play overseas a la Brandon Jennings and then jump to the NBA the next season. INstead of turning his back on the league, the young player has now turned his back on the NCAA and made a lot of money in the process…while being able to promote himself globally and prepare for the NBA level against some good talent…
its all but inevitable until they withdraw the age restriction…
August 5th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Man Hova is going to be pissed.
August 5th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
1) No way LeBron jumps to Europe. We’re not talking a mid-level guy, we’re talking a guy who will never ever lack for money. There’s really no reason for him to leave.
2) “But I do think it’s only a matter of time before the Euroleague signs a LeBron James like talent before he’s eligible for the draft.”
That assumes there will be another LeBron James-like talent anytime soon. It’s extremely rare for someone to come out of high school with remotely the kind of hype LeBron had. It’s even more rare for that player to actually live up to that hype. A guy like LeBron, who was a sure-fire star in high school, does not come along often. Combine that with the fact that most high school stars aren’t going to want to try and adapt to the much more team-oriented European game, and that high school players usually don’t contribute immediately, I don’t think it’s likely that teams are going to want to throw $10 mil a year at an unproven high schooler.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
dusty,
Lol.
“Jigga what?”
August 5th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
xphoenix87,
“No way LeBron jumps to Europe.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3520860
“That assumes there will be another LeBron James-like talent anytime soon. It’s extremely rare for someone to come out of high school with remotely the kind of hype LeBron had.”
It is rare. But it will happen. It’s the evolution of sports.
“Combine that with the fact that most high school stars aren’t going to want to try and adapt to the much more team-oriented European game, and that high school players usually don’t contribute immediately, I don’t think it’s likely that teams are going to want to throw $10 mil a year at an unproven high schooler.”
I’m convinced that LeBron James could have been a professional player at the age of 16. I watched the kid play when he was in high school, and he could have started for any team in the NBA. If he could have played in the NBA, he would have starred in the Euroleague.
August 5th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
LeBron can say what he wants, he’s not going to Europe.
I can count on one hand the number of guys in the last 20 years who could’ve played in the NBA at that age. I’m not buying that this is going to become a huge trend.
August 5th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
I’m with Phoenix here.
LeBron will never play overseas.
Will other players head over there? Sure. But nobody who really matters.
Then you also have to factor in how David Stern would make adjustments to retain the best over here. I can see him creating an NBA Europe, and allowing–even encouraging–players to go over there. But hell no, is Stern going to let his stars play for Olympiakos or whatever the heck it’s called.
August 6th, 2008 at 2:21 am
I heard this “$40-50 million tax-free dollars” thing on the radio, too. What I want to know is how this works.
I’ve lived overseas for 15 years. Except for the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion, which amounts to $85,700, your non-US income is taxable. Now, $85,700 is a fair chunk of change for you and me, but for Mr. James, that’s chicken-feed. Unless he’s planning on simply not filing and/or not getting caught (well, he’s shot his chances on that working by making this public statement) or changing his nationality (which you’re effectively fined for now-a-days), his tax burden isn’t appreciably less in Europe than it is in the US.
Can anyone enlighten me on how this “tax-free dollars” thing makes sense? Is there some sort of “really high-income sports guy” exclusion that I’ve never heard of? If so, well, I’m gonna practice so that I can be a big star someday!
August 6th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Miki,
Here’s how it works: http://slamonline.com/online/2008/07/links-dollars-and-sense/
SLAM: One thing we’ve talked a lot about is contracts in Europe being tax-free, or the team pays the tax. How does that work?
TANNER (Childress’ agent): The way it works is that the team pays the tax in that jurisdiction, and then at the end of the year they issue a certificate to the player that he can then apply against US taxes. Depending on where he’s playing overseas, that would dictate how much tax is paid on his behalf, and then depending on where his state of residence is in the US, that dictates how much of an offset that overseas tax would make against his US taxes. A player is still responsible for his domestic taxes, both federal and state, but he gets to offset those taxes against what’s been paid for him overseas.
August 6th, 2008 at 9:38 am
X & Train,
It’s going to happen fellas. If not LeBron, than someone else. It’s only a matter of time. We’re talking $50 million dollars, tax free.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:17 am
What if Stern rids of the salary cap?
What if the American dollar and EURO are equal in value?
A lot of things can happen. Look, I understand it’s a global market. And I’d be stupid to think that basketball in the world–which is really only second to soccer–won’t ever manifest to a point it’s like the global soccer setup. Sure, I can totally see basketball leagues in every country with stars from all over playing in different countries, etc. One day.
But I think we’re really far away from that. I mean, there are so many other variables at play. Stuff like language/cultural barriers. What about the instability of the countries, let alone the leagues and teams (it’s well-documented that often teams don’t follow-through on their contracts).
Then there’s the talent issue. It’s not like we’re on a level playing field. The best players overseas are role players in the states, and the best American players are stars overseas. The NBA has more to lose than gain from quality guys leaving the states. At some point, if it becomes an issue, I’m sure Stern will make adjustments.
But overall, the NBA is THE LEAGUE. Brandon Jennings, whomever, will always want to be HERE. And Stern knows that, and I’m sure he is happy as hell youngsters like Jennings will mature in Italy before ultimately entering his league.
We’ll see what happens.
Remember the U.S. economy is in shambles right now, the NBA is rebuilding after a God-awful Darius Miles era, etc. There’s a lot at play.
Childress by the way will be the best player in Greece next season. Watch.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:24 am
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-nbaseuropeanexodus&prov=ap&type=lgns
But the league would sure be alarmed if Kobe Bryant wasn’t joking when he told reporters after a pre-Olympic exhibition game: “Italy, Greece, Russia, $40 million a year? Yeah, I’m there, as simple as that.”
—-
“You cut the check,” Bryant said, “and I will bring my Nike checks.”
____________
these comments come directly from the mouth of god. not from a source close to god.
would love to hear your thoughts, maybe even right a blawg about it.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:22 am
dusty,
I know this won’t come as a surprise, but I’m not putting too much weight into Kobe’s comments.
Here’s another link where he discusses playing in Europe:
http://english.sport-express.ru/summary/1_2938/
Asked if, like many of his fellow NBA stars, he would consider moving to Europe to play, Bryant answered very straight-forwardly. “Of course. By the way, are you the owner of a Russian team? It can be arranged for $40 million per year.”
“I would love Kobe to come to Duke University to play for me,” added Krzyzewski. “I can’t offer him that kind of salary, but he would receive a university diploma instead.”
Kobe is at a different stage of his career than LeBron is. LeBron could sign a two-year deal and return before he hits his prime. Kobe is going to be 30 years old in a few weeks.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
LOL!
of course you don’t put “too much weight into KOBE!!’s comments”…….
yet you write another blog about james going to play overseas.
LOL!
so you are saying it is OK for mamba to be strictly money motivated but not james?
you slay me. you are nothing more than an immature hoodrat, and today’s worst person on the internet.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
dusty,
I’m not saying it’s okay for anyone to be strictly money motivated. Where did I say that?
In fact, I said the exact opposite in my blog about James today.
I took issue with the rumors that had Elton Brand signing with the Warriors for more money because I felt Elton had a greater opportunity to win with the Clippers. But Elton took less than a max deal for an even greater chance at success with the Sixers.
I wouldn’t condone or fault Kobe or LeBron for playing in Europe. But given Kobe’s age — I think he’s less likely to play in Europe than LeBron.
I haven’t seen any video of Kobe talking about playing in Europe. I can only go off the quotes, and him asking a reporter if he was the owner of a team in Russia spoke volumes to me. I don’t think his response was meant to be taken literally.
But I could be wrong. I guess we’ll find out.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
dusty,
Rooster, can I call you Rooster? :)
I’m not applying a double-standard to Kobe and LeBron. If Kobe was LeBron’s age, I wouldn’t put it past him to head to Europe for the chance to earn $100 million over two seasons. But Kobe is 30 years old. The clock is ticking on his time in the NBA. James could play two years in Europe and return before he hits his prime.
And let’s forget James’ business aspirations. Like it or not, he’s focused on more than basketball. He wants to build a brand and become a billionaire. The Euroleague can help him accomplish those goals.
August 8th, 2008 at 5:43 am
you can call me susan if it makes you happy.
iconic players bolt from their current situations when they are at THE END of their careers and trying to cash out, NOT when they are just about to peak.
all logic goes right out the window when you start talking about KOBE!! and or lebron.
i am of the opinion that you would be best to leave those two alone and write about everything else.
just trying to help.
KOBE!!
August 8th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Susan,
“iconic players bolt from their current situations when they are at THE END of their careers and trying to cash out, NOT when they are just about to peak.”
I don’t think Kobe is at the end of his career yet.
“all logic goes right out the window when you start talking about KOBE!! and or lebron.”
You may be right.
“i am of the opinion that you would be best to leave those two alone and write about everything else.”
Appreciate the advice. But it’s a hot topic. The blog I wrote yesterday was linked to by ESPN, so it generated a fair amount of interest.
“just trying to help.”
I appreciate that.
August 8th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
well i guess END of his career would be all about “perception” right? is KOBE!! going to play another 10 seasons? is he in the middle of his career?
———
oh, i’m right…..
———
yes, the idea of lebrooklyn leaving cleveland is always a hot topic. basketball writers all over the place are just dying to give lebron mountains of accolades, but simply don’t seem to be able to bring themselves to do it as long as lebrick is in the 216. (how’s that arena coming along in brooklyn?)
ESPECIALLY THOSE AT ESPN: stephen a. smith, skip bayless, ric bucher, and you.
_________
don’t mention it.
August 8th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
dusty,
I think Kobe will play at least five more seasons. So I don’t think he’s at the tail end of his career. Even so, I think it would be a terrible move for him to leave at this point. He would be wasting the final years of his prime in the Euroleague.
I know you focused on the LeBron angle of this blog, and that’s understandable. But how do you feel about the main idea of this blog, and this that a Euroleague could nab the ‘Next LeBron’ before he even graduates from high school? Do you think that’s possible? Do you think that’s something the NBA should be concerned about?
August 8th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
anything is possible.
this years NBA finals are proof of that.
Lakers in 5.
August 19th, 2008 at 10:01 am
+1. Who more? :)