Playoffs:

West: same as last year but replace Dallas with Portland
East: In no particular order – Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Toronto, Orlando, Philly, Washington, Miami

The east will be much more competitive this year. The separation between seats 4-10 will be no more than 7 games.

Parity in the NBA continues to grow – you know that means, defense still wins championships.

I think Toronto and Philly are going to be good. But I don’t think they’ll contend for the championship.

I think the Jazz are going to remain as contenders. They really were the second best team in the West last year. But Boozer disappeared in the playoffs.

You said, “Had the Cavs had home court advantage in that series there is no reason to believe they wouldn’t have gone to the finals.”

Maybe so. But you would have faced the Celtics later in the playoffs. And Boston got stronger with each round of the postseason.

Who do you have making the playoffs?

By my early analysis so far (subject to change :P), there are 15 teams that are all but locks for the playoffs, and 9 contenders (a few more than last year, and much more balanced between conferences). As I’ve said before, I’d be shocked if the West’s top 8 aren’t LA, NO, Hou, SA, Utah, Pho, Dal, and Por. The drop-off after those teams is just too big (I know you like Denver Hoff, but I think you’re off your rocker). For the East, there’s an even bigger gap between the top 7 and the rest, that top 7 being Bos, Cle, Det, Was, Tor, Phi, Orl. The only team that could jump into that echelon is Miami, but I’m not willing to put them there until I see Beasley produce as a rookie and Wade play more than 50 games.

Early list of contenders: NO, LA, Hou, SA, Utah, Bos, Cle, Tor, Phi

The ones I least like among those are Utah and Philly. Philly I think is too young still, but I like the construction of their team. They’ve got good balance and a solid bench, but I’m not sure Thaddeus Young will grow up fast enough, or if I really believe in Andre Miller. Utah has no post defenders, and that worries me. They’re a terrific offensive team, but nobody on that team scares you on the defensive end. I like the Raptors if Jermaine O’Neal makes the bounce-back I expect. If he goes down with injury again though, they’re out.

In the East, I like Boston to grab the top spot. Too much talent. But they won’t repeat this year. It’s too easy to defend them in crunch time, and their defense won’t be as physical without Posey. Also, they’re an injury from their big 3 away from mediocrity. 58 wins.

Detroit wins regular season games – that’s just what they do. They play solid D, every player on their team is an offensive weapon, but they have a ceiling. They will win 55 games and lose in the 1st round of the playoffs.

I like the Cavs number 3 this season. I think last season showed them that you can’t screw around in the regular season. You need everyone in training camp – you need continuity, and you need home court advantage as often as possible in the playoffs. The Cavs limped through most of the season and because of it had to play Boston in the 2nd round. Had the Cavs had home court advantage in that series there is no reason to believe they wouldn’t have gone to the finals. Mike Brown is going to have Mo Williams playing D. Speaking of Mo, after 5 years, the Cavs finally have a point guard that can get into the teeth of the defense. I expect the Cavs to suffer some injuries and finish with 54 well earned wins.

Toronto Raptors – This is where it starts getting difficult. I like the Raptors acquisition of Jermaine Oneal. When healthy, they have the best offense in the East – even better than the Wizards. A healthy Oneal provides some toughness on the low post that Chris Bosh lacks. I could see the Raptors winning 50 games, but reality probably puts them at or around 47.

Orlando Magic – The Magic Still have Dwight Howard, but it just felt like everything went right in Orlando last year – with Hedo going bonkers all the time. I felt like they overachieved last year, but I still think they are a good regular season team. Expectations will be high – we’ll go with 46 wins.

Philadelphia 76ers – Everyone is really high on the 76ers. I’m not. Andre Miller can’t play forever, expectations are incredibly high, and the injury bug seems to hurt the run and gun teams the most imo. If completely healthy, they have enough talent and depth to WIN the East. I just keep thinking something bad is going to happen to them. Karma I guess. I’ll go with 44 wins.

Washington Wizards – The Wizards are absolutely the most pathetic excuse for a basketball team in the NBA. They think they are better than they are, they choke in big situations, they talk trash when they get their butts kicked, and they have the mindless DC media that fuels a culture of excuses. Arenas will bounce back from last years injuries, they will win a few games 160-158, and they will get bounced in the first round (again) by the 76ers. 42 wins.

Miami Heat – Beasley will be the first rookie since LeBron, Melo, and Wade were off and running ‘03 to make an all-star worthy contribution in his rookie season. With Shawn Marion and a healthy Wade, they have one of the best trios in the NBA. If Wade gets hurt, they will shut him down, trade Haslem, and grab a top draft pick next year – but I don’t see that happening. 41 wins. Wade would have given them 25 wins last season, but they tanked so they would get a draft pick.

Indiana Pacers – They will surprise a few teams and squeak into the last playoff spot. They have a high octane offense that will win a lot of regular season games. They will lose 4-0 in the first round to the Celtics.

Rest of the pack (in no particular order)

Chicago addressed their need of low post scoring in 2007 by drafting a big that can’t score – Joakim Noah. They addressed their need of low post scoring in 2008 by drafting a point guard. Maybe in 2009 they will address low post scoring, but for now, Drew Gooden is their best low post threat, and that’s not going to be enough, unless Luol Deng plays like an all-star for 82 games. Especially not in the east, where all the good teams play physical defense.

Milwaukee has been an above average team the last 3 years when everyone is healthy – the problem is that almost never happens. Redd looks like he’s lost a step and trading away Mo Williams pretty much makes these guys lottery bound.

Atlanta – Losing Josh Childress did more than hurt the talent pool on this team – it hurt the franchise psyche. They are doomed. Josh Smith and Joe Johnson aint that good.

Charlotte – Every year I pick Charlotte to make the playoffs, so this year I’m not – maybe they will actually make it. They have a nice starting 5, but they always have injuries to key players.

New York Knicks – Worst Team Chemistry in the NBA. They are going no where fast. I’d be interested to see if they try to find a buyer for Zach Randolph.

New Jersey Nets – sold their present for a shot at the future. They will have trouble winning 20 games.