The NBA realigned it’s conferences before the 2004-2005 season and created an additional division in each conference. The Southwest Division was added to the Eastern Conference. And the Midwest division was added to the Western Conference. The 04-05 season also marked the inaugural campaign of the Charlotte Bobcats, which precipitated New Orleans’ move to the Western Conference.
The top four playoff seeds in each conference are determined by the three division winners and the second-place team with the best record. Those four teams are seeded according to their win-loss total, guaranteeing that the top two teams in each conference can’t meet until the conference finals.
Division championships are meaningful, but not as meaningful as they once were. Division winners are guaranteed a high playoff seed, but homecourt advantage is still determined by regular season record.
I would love to see the NBA get rid of divisions and conferences all together, but that’s a blog for another day.
Atlantic Division
1. Boston
2. Philadelphia
3. Toronto
4. New York
5. New Jersey
Boston will win because Kevin Garnett is the heart and soul of the Celtics and he’s too intense to let the Celtics slip without a fight. I don’t think the Celtics will win 66 games again, but they’ll win enough to secure the #1 seed in the East.
Philadelphia can win if Elton Brand has an MVP season. When healthy, Brand is the third best power forward in the NBA. After seven seasons in relative obscurity with the Clippers, Brand should be motivated to make an immediate impact in sports crazed Philly.
Central Division
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland
3. Chicago
4. Milwaukee
5. Indiana
Detroit will win because they have four All-Star caliber players and great depth. Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell will continue to improve and new Coach Michael Curry will breathe air into a team that appeared on life support for much of last year’s playoffs. Detroit’s days of championship contention are over, but they still have enough weapons to grab a high playoff seed in the East.
Cleveland can win if LeBron James plays all 82 games. James missed seven games last season and Cleveland was 0-7 in his absence. The Cavs depend upon James to initiate and finish plays in Mike Brown’s rudimentary offense. The acquisition of Mo Williams won’t be enough for Cleveland to alleviate their dependence upon The King.
Southeast Division
1. Orlando
2. Miami
3. Washington
4. Atlanta
5. Charlotte
Orlando will win because Dwight Howard emerged as the NBA’s best center last season and the Southwest Division is the weakest division in the NBA. Orlando’s frontcourt is solid, but their backcourt leaves a lot to be desired. Jameer Nelson is a backup point guard masquerading as a starter and there’s a good chance that Hedo Turkoglu’s breakout year was little more than an abberation.
Miami can win if Dwyane Wade plays a full season and takes his game to an entirely new level. Wade was phenomenal at playing the passing lanes and getting to the basket in the Olympics, but he will need to stretch opposing defenses with his outside shooting and develop a mid-range game in order to avoid injury and lead the Heat back to respectability.
Northwest Division
1. Utah
2. Portland
3. Denver
4. Minnesota
5. Oklahoma City
Utah will win because they were the second best team in the Western Conference last season and return all of their key players. Deron Williams is a top-flight point guard and continues to add new dimensions to his game. Carlos Boozer is one of the NBA’s best back-to-the-basket scorers. And Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur are former All-Stars.
Portland can win if Greg Oden remains healthy, exceeds expectations, and his teammates put ‘we’ before ‘me’. The Trail Blazers have a surplus of young, talented players looking to make a name for themselves in the NBA. But there’s only so many minutes and shots to go around. Coach Nate McMillan will be assigned the unenviable task of maximizing individual potential while prioritizing team success over individual numbers. Make no mistake, the Blazers have the talent to do some serious damage in an ultra-competitive conference.
Pacific Divison
1. L.A. Lakers
2. Phoenix
3. L.A. Clippers
4. Sacramento
5. Golden State
Los Angeles will win because they return the NBA’s Most Valuable Player and a seemingly rehabilitated Andrew Bynum. Bynum was leading the league in field goal percentage last year before he suffered a dislocated knee cap. Despite Bynum’s absence, the Lakers advanced to the NBA Finals behind Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and one of the deepest benches in the NBA.
Phoenix can win if Shaquille O’Neal turns back the clock eight years. I think Phoenix will surprise some of the doubters that are predicting a drastic decline from last season, but the Suns have little chance of winning the Pacific Division or contending for the NBA championship. Amare Stoudemire appears primed for a career year. And Matt Barnes could be a difference maker.
Southwest Division
1. New Orleans
2. Houston
3. San Antonio
4. Dallas
5. Memphis
New Orleans will win because Chris Paul is fast-becoming one of the greatest point guards of all-time. Last season, Paul became the first player ever to average 20 points, 11 assists and 3 steals per game during the regular season. Paul’s court awarness is off the charts and he’s surrounded by plenty of weapons offensively. I don’t think James Posey will live up to expectations in New Orleans because the Hornets need more from their guard/forward positions than the Heat or Celtics did, but Posey will do his thing come playoff time.
Houston can win if Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming remain injury free. McGrady has missed 27 games over the previous two seasons, Yao has missed 61. The acquisition of Ron Artest makes the Houston Rockets championship contenders, but Houston needs a healthy McGrady and Ming to challenge the Hornets and Lakers in the West.
[Note: The Wizards would have been my pick to finish second in the Southeast before Arenas' injury. I hope Arenas makes a speedy recovery, but after undergoing three knee surgeries over the past 17 months, there's no guarantee that Gilbert will return as the player he once was.]
September 21st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Solid Picks – I agree with most of them. I do think Matt Barnes will fit well in Phoenix. Chris Paul is such an enigma to me. Every time I watched a Hornets game he seemed like the best player on the court. And it was because he always seemed quicker than everybody on the court. In the Olympics, he was getting burned on defense REGULARLY and his offense was OK at best. Maybe he was tired, I don’t know – but I felt like I saw two completely different Chris Paul’s this past year.
I think there is NO CHANCE that McGrady and Yao remain healthy for an entire season – but they will still be great – they will have THE BEST defense in the NBA this season.