Season Preview Primer

Philadelphia 76ers

Coach: Maurice Cheeks
2007-08 Record: 40-42
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 42-40
Offensive Rating: 106.4 (18^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 106 (8^th)
Possessions per 48: 90.4 (20^th)
Min%: 82.2 (10^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

A lot of Philly’s success is going to depend on whether or not Andre Miller can repeat his success from last year, when he had his best season since his career year in 01-02. He’s at his best in transition, where he does an excellent job setting up his teammates and getting them easy shots, in particular he throws a great lob pass. Miller is a bit more limited in the halfcourt, since he can’t hit the NBA three at all, but he’s a decent mid-range shooter and a pretty good slasher. He also rebounds at a high rate for a guard. The problem, however, is that he’s now 32, doesn’t have a great shot, and has had some problems over the course of his career with staying in shape. That’s not a great recipe for longevity, and we could see a significant drop in Miller’s play next year.

Luckily for the Sixers, they’ve got a backup point guard who may just be better than Miller. Somewhat lost in the shuffle last year was the continued improvement of Louis Williams. Most notably, the lightning-quick Williams cut down his turnovers significantly despite taking a more prominent role in the offense. That’s the second straight year in which Williams has dramatically lowered his turnover rate, a promising sign for a young point guard. His free throw percentage shot up 10 points, and his three point percentage went up almost 4 points while shooting it much more frequently. If Williams can continue his prodigious rate of growth, he might find a spot in the starting lineup as early as this year.

Andre Iguadola isn’t a superstar. You probably can’t win a championship with Andre Iguadola as your best player. Luckily, with the acquisition of Elton Brand, the Sixers don’t have to worry about that. As a second option, Iguadola is excellent. He’s a jack-of-all-trades who offers a bit of everything on the offensive end, and he’s rapidly becoming an elite defender. He’s a very good rebounder and passer at his position, and he took a big step last year by cutting his turnovers down quite a bit. He needs to continue improving his outside shot and develop his left hand, but if he does so, Iguadola has a good chance at making his first All-Star team this year.

Reggie Evans and his $5 mil a year contract are proof positive that you can succeed in the NBA with only one real discernable skill. For Evans, that skill is rebounding. He can’t shoot (44% FG, 46% FT), can’t pass, doesn’t block shots, and turns the ball over every other time he touches it, but man, the guy can rebound. His rebound percentage of 19.3 last year was at the same level as rebound machines like Duncan, Camby, Chandler and Kaman.

Samuel Dalembert is wildly overpaid at $11 mil a year, since he’s not ever going to be a legitimate offensive option, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad starting center. He’s an excellent shot-blocker and rebounder who can really impact the game on the defensive end. His presence around the rim is a big reason why Philly was a top 10 defensive team last year. All he’ll be asked to do next year is defend, rebound, and run the floor to get open looks in transition, and that’s well within his ability.

Oh yeah, there’s also this new guy they’ve got. Elton something? Seriously though, Brand changes the entire face of this team. He’s an elite power forward who can score on the block or facing up from midrange. He’s one of the league’s best offensive rebounders, he takes care of the ball, and he’s a surprisingly good passer for a big man. He’s extremely strong and has long arms, so he’s an excellent defender despite his lack of height. Really, for a guy his size to block as many shots as he does is pretty amazing. An Achilles injury isn’t as hard to come back from as say a knee surgery, and we saw Brand play a few games at the end of last season, so I would expect Brand to come back strong after missing almost an entire season.

X-Factor: Thaddeus Young – Young surprised everyone with how effective he was as a rookie last year, playing efficiently on the offensive end and helping Philly to a surprise playoff spot. He’s really the prototypical small forward, he’s got great size (6′8), he’s a terrific athlete, he can score in the post, and he’s got a silky jumper. He was supposed to be a bit of a project when he was drafted, but he really exploded when he got playing time last year. His potential is phenomenal, and if he takes another step forward this year, he could combine with Iguadola to give the Sixers an absolutely terrifying wing combo.

Overview

Philly’s rebuilding project progressed a bit faster than anticipated last year, winning 40 games and grabbing the East’s 7^th playoff spot before taking the Pistons to 6 games in their first round series. They did it by taking full advantage of their prodigious athleticism, constantly attacking on defense to force turnovers (2^nd in the league) and crashing the offensive glass (1^st in the league, by a lot). However, their youth and inexperience showed in plenty of ways. They were the worst three-point shooting team in the league, and despite their offensive rebounding prowess, they weren’t a very good defensive rebounding team, hinting at a lack of discipline in that area. However, all in all their unexpected success and the large contributions they got from young players like Williams, Young and Iguadola bode well for the future.

Prediction

We would’ve expected significant improvement from this team already just by virtue of their youth, but the addition of Brand over the offseason takes them to a new level. He should immediately improve two of their biggest trouble spots (defensive rebounding and FG%) with his presence in the post. He also has to be double teamed, something that should open up more easy looks from the perimeter than Philly saw last year when they were devoid of a real post threat. It just remains to be seen how effective the Sixers’ perimeter players will be shooting those open shots. Their biggest question marks now are their bench, which they pieced together this offseason with some cheap veterans, and Brand’s health. If the young guys continue to develop, and they can hit enough outside shots to keep the defense honest, this team should contend for the Eastern crown.

4th in the East – Contenders?

BallerBlogger contributing writer ‘xphoenix87′  is writing a season preview for every team in the NBA. The Toronto Raptors will be featured tomorrow.