Toronto Raptors
Coach: Sam Mitchell
2007-08 Record: 41-41
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 49-33
Offensive Rating: 110.2 (10th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 107 (13th)
Possessions per 48: 90.2 (23rd)
Min%: 72.4 (23rd)
Four Factors:
|
eFG% |
TOV% |
RB% |
FT/FGA |
|
| Offensive | 51.1 (7th) | .114 (2nd) | .234 (25th) | .200 (27th) |
| Defensive | 50.5 (22nd) | .135 (11th) | .751 (4th) | .205 (6th) |
Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)
Jose Calderon is in danger of becoming the next player who slowly becomes overrated because everyone keeps calling him underrated. It happened to Ben Wallace and Josh Howard over the last few years. However, right now he’s still not at the point where the majority of NBA fans recognize just how good he is. He isn’t a high-volume player, but he’s tremendously efficient. He distributes the ball at a high rate and almost never turns the ball over (his A/T ratio of 5.38 was nearly .8 higher than the league’s next best mark). He also shoots absolutely fantastic percentages from everywhere on the floor. He was one of only two players to shoot at least 50% from the field, 40% from three, and 90% at the line. The other? Guy named Steve Nash, you may have heard of him.
There are very few post players out there who are comparable to Chris Bosh offensively. I remember watching him with the US team in the Tournament of Americas two summers ago and thinking he was the closest thing to Tim Duncan outside of Duncan himself. His faceup game is tremendous. He’s able to knock down shots consistently all the way out to the three-point line, he’s got a great jab step, and he’s far too quick for most post players to stay in front of. Around the rim, he’s very adept at using pump fakes and up-and-unders to get good looks and draw fouls (which he does at a prodigious rate). Defensively, he’s still coming along, and could stand to get a bit stronger to hold post position, but he’s a decent shotblocker, rotates well, and stays out of foul trouble.
Anthony Parker isn’t the best player in his family (his sister is women’s basketball superstar Candace Parker), but he’s proven himself to be an invaluable role player for the Raps after coming over as a free agent from Israeli powerhouse Maccabi Tel Aviv. He’s not a great athlete, he’s made himself a lock-down defender with excellent fundamentals and taking full advantage of his great size for the position. He’s also a terrific perimeter shooter who rarely turns the ball over. He’s 33 an could start to lose his edge as a defender, but we’ve been thinking that same thing about Bruce Bowen for a while, and he was still pretty good at last check. The fact that he’s so fundamentally sound and a hard worker should help Parker remain productive, which is good for the Raptors since they don’t have much depth behind him.
Last year, Jamario Moon became the athletic, slashing forward that the Raptors had been missing. He’s also not as bad a shooter as most people think. His 44.1 eFG% on jumpers is fairly respectable, so he’s not a bad option if he’s got his feet set. The problem is that he settles for jumpers too much, despite being an excellent finisher inside (almost 70% on close shots). If he can improve his shot selection and become more aggressive, he can become an even more efficient offensive option. Of course, Moon’s main strength lies in his defensive ability. He’s not the most disciplined defender, but he’s such a great athlete that he can get away with it most of the time. He’s actually the Raptors’ most proficient shotblocker, and one of the league’s best rebounders from the small forward position. Give the Raptors credit for finding valuable pieces like Moon and Parker basically off the scrap heap.
Jason Kapono sure looks like an efficient player, doesn’t he? 48% from the floor, 48% from three and 86% from the line. However, he’s far less effective than his percentages indicate. For one, he takes far too many long twos, and far too few threes. Only 23.6% of his shots came from behind the arc, which is inexcusable for a guy who shoots as well as he does. Since he brings, quite literally, absolutely nothing else to the table, Kapono has to be consistently drilling threes in order to be useful. If he’s going to camp out just inside the arc and shoot long twos all the time, he’s not worth playing significant minutes.
The health of Jermaine O’Neal is obviously going to be a huge concern for the Raptors this season. If he can stay healthy, there’s no reason to think this team can’t contend for the Eastern crown. Defensively, he could immediately make the Raptors a top 10 defensive team. He’s a great shotblocker despite almost always being asked to guard the opp
onent’s best post player, and he avoids foul trouble. The one defensive area where he’s only average is rebounding, which shouldn’t be a big concern because the Raptor’s were the league’s 4th best defensive rebounding team last year. Offensively, it’ll be interesting to see how O’Neal does playing alongside a superstar like Bosh. For the last 5 years or so, O’Neal has been asked to carry a huge amount of his team’s offensive load, and his efficiency has been terrible. That won’t be the case this year, and we’ll have to see if he can take advantage of that to get more high-percentage shots. All this, though, is contingent on his health. We can’t know for certain how things will turn out, but reports from the offseason sound very good, and his workload will be lessened significantly, so hopefully he’ll be able to spend more time on the floor than off it.
X-Factor: Andrea Bargnani - The former number one pick had a fairly disappointing sophomore season, especially considering that many people expected him to improve significantly. A closer look at the numbers reveals that the season wasn’t a complete failure. He reduced his turnovers significantly and his assist rate went up, promising signs for a young player. The problem, however, is that his shooting percentages absolutely went in the tank. He went from being a young Dirk to being a young Antoine Walker. The third year is the typical turning point year for young players. If Bargnani can regain the shooting stroke that made him such an intriguing prospect, he could give the Raptors a dangerous new dimension. There’s been talk of playing him at small forward, which would give Toronto a huge front court that no one could match up with. If Bargnani explodes, there might not be a more intriguing offensive team than the Raptors next year.
Overview
It was a rough season for the Raptors last year. Their superstar, Bosh, missed 15 games, and their starting point guard, T.J. Ford, missed 31 games. What’s worse, when said point guard came back, it messed up team chemistry when they had to juggle the minutes of Ford and Calderon. They were also tremendously unlucky in close games. Their point differential of +2.9 is that of a 49 win team, but they only won 41, indicating that they lost more than their fair share of coin flip games. So, a team that reasonably could’ve won 50 games instead ended up with a .500 record and the 6th seed. That’s not to say there were no bright spots though. Free agent rookie Moon became the starting small forward, Bosh continued his climb towards stardom, and Calderon showed he wasn’t a one-year wonder by improving on his already great numbers.
Prediction
They took a big gamble this offseason by going after Jermaine O’Neal, but if he stays healthy it could end up being a huge steal. O’Neal has always been a bit overrated as an offensive option, but he could really change the face of the Raptors defense. They’ve lost a bit of their depth with the departure of Carlos Delfino and Rasho Nesterovic, but I wouldn’t expect it to hurt them that much. There are certainly a lot of question marks (O’Neal’s health, Bargnani’s progress, point guard depth), but there’s a ton of talent on this team, and it’s very well balanced. They have shooters, slashers, defenders, and a top-notch point guard/post player combo in Calderon and Bosh. If O’Neal stays healthy, this is not a team you want to see in the playoffs.
5th in the East - Contenders?
October 5th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Bosh has missed an average of 13.3 games per season over the past three seasons. Jermaine O’Neal has missed an average of 30.5 games per season over the last five. That’s insanity.
Starting five is: Calderon, Parker, Moon, Bosh and O’Neal. Factor in the games Bosh and O’Neal will miss. This is a weak squad, .500 at best. Losing TJ Ford will hurt–he’s really a money player.
October 5th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
You’re really underrating this team. Even with Bosh missing 15 games last year, they were basically a 50-win team. You’ve got to realize, they were extraordinarily unlucky last year. On top of having the point differential of a 49 win team, opponents also shot the highest free throw percentage in the league against them.
Ford is the flashier player, Calderon is the better player. They lose some depth from losing Ford, but Calderon will play 5 more minutes a game or so and make up for most of that.
O’Neal will probably miss his fair share of games, but he’ll make a huge difference on the defensive end. He’s a perfect fit for this team because of everything he brings to the table as a defender. All the Raptors need is about 60 or so games, and to be healthy during the playoffs. Anything more than that is icing on the cake.
October 6th, 2008 at 8:51 am
On the topic of O’Neal’s missed games, dig a little deeper and there’s reason to think that he may be ready to start a new chapter. Over the last couple of years, he was very dissatisfied with the direction of the Pacers and became quite unhappy being there. Professional or not, I think an athlete has a higher tendency to be injured when your unhappy with your situation playing on a non-contender. Realistically, it has to be challenging to give 110% down the stretch when you’re team is an outside shot make the playoffs at best. He admitted that he had become concerned that he was losing his love for the game. Fast-forward to this summer. First thing O’neal did upon being traded was enroll at Joe Abunassar’s Impact Basketball in Las Vegas. He did a month of training with no ball. He trained like a hungry college kid preparing for the draft. He trained like someone hungry, someone motivated. His goal was strengthen his body, particularly his core, to take some pressure off the wonky knee. I’m not looking at this one through rose-colored glasses. His health is a definite concern for the Raps, especially with no back-up centre with Nesterovic going the other way in the trade. But from what I’m hearing, Jermaine O’Neal is doing everything right to position himself and his team for success. He’s 30 years old and has never won a title. In fact, he’s rarely even been on a team contending. My estimation is that this guy really wants it. And that motivating factor may be just he, and the Raptors, need.
On the flip-side, let’s look at what Toronto gave up to get him: TJ Ford. While I wish him luck in his future endeavours and feel that he very possibly will fit in well somewhere, I would have traded him for a bag of used basketballs. With all the focus on O’neal’s knee, everyone seems to have forgotten that TJ Ford BROKE HIS NECK! After publicly stating he would retire from basketball rather risk his health, he came back to the team a cancer. He wouldn’t come off the bench. He was unhappy sharing ‘his’ minutes with near-allstar Calderon. He jacked wild, out-of-control shot after wild, out-of-control shots. He tried to -be- the offense instead of running the offense, like a point guard should. And he went public with his discontent, which turned out to be the final straw in the ‘team first’ environment that Collangelo is building. Bottom line on the trade: While both TJ and O’neal could be considered risks, the Raptors took the risk shoring up where they needed it in the defensively-minded, reboundingcentre instead of where they didn’t, at the point where they had depth.
October 9th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
I don’t like them. You say last year was bad luck… fine, maybe it was.
What I see is a .500 team that basically swapped one talented but often-injured point guard for an overrated often-injured big man. I don’t see a nine-game improvement in the win column because of the Ford-O’Neal swap. I don’t.
Then again, I like Ford, dislike O’Neal, think Calderon is overrated (low ceiling for sure), dislike Bargnani, think Parker is a seventh-man, don’t care for Sam Mitchell, etc.
I think the fact the Raps had two strong point guards was the reason why this team OVERACHIEVED.
I say 43 wins, tops, this season. I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs.
Don’t kid yourself about O’Neal–he’s good on an irrelevant Zach Randolph-type level. He is not a difference-maker.
October 9th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Win differential is a much better predictor of success than actual wins, it just is. I know “purists” like to say the only thing that matters is how many Ws you get, but that’s just plain wrong. The Raptors were a better team than their record last year, much better. Without any trade, if you just replayed the season, you’d expect significant improvement from them, 5-6 games at least.
The fact is, the Raptors were good with Ford, then they played better when he was injured, and then they played terribly when he came back and didn’t want to take a back seat to Calderon.
You could even argue Ford is addition by subtraction with the way he pouted through the end of last year, but I’m not necessarily going to go that far. However, they traded from a position of strength to get a position of need.
I, also, have never liked O’Neal. I think he’s been overrated and misused for the majority of his career. He’s not a guy who can be the main offensive weapon on a team, he’s just not efficient enough. However, he doesn’t have to be that on the Raptors with Bosh around, and the difference between he and Randolph is that O’Neal is a fantastic defensive player. You can contend with a great defensive center, you can’t contend with a guy like Randolph.
btw, Parker is no worse than plenty of starting 2 guards on playoff teams. Michael Finley, Raja Bell, Keith Bogans/Mickael Pietrus, DeShawn Stevenson, Morris Peterson, none of them markedly better than Parker.
btw btw, 43 wins makes the playoffs in the East this year, write it down and mail it in. The last time 43 wins in the East wasn’t good enough for the playoffs? 1997. The East is better this year, but not that good.
October 9th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
All good points, Phoenix.
One thing though… since when is Jermaine O’Neal such a good defender?
The guy has never even received one DPOY vote. He has never made an All-Defense team. Why is he good defensively? Because his “defensive rating” is good? I saw a stat on 82games.com where it had him ranked high as a defender. Interesting, I said. Then I saw JAMAAL TINSLEY was rated the top defensive guard. Ron Artest and Jeff Foster were on the list too. Logic says the Pacers were good defensively as a unit, and as a result of that, all of the players received recognition as strong individual defenders.
I can’t remember watching him play D and thinking he was above-average at it. Then again, I feel like decades have passed since I last saw him play.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:13 am
I have no respect whatsoever for the DPOY vote. Quite frankly, KG or Duncan should win that award almost every year because since they’re consistently far-and-away the best defensive players in the league, but they’ve only won it once between the two of them. That award is a mockery.
The ways we have of statistically measuring defensive play aren’t great, but O’Neal excels in virtually every area. He’s an excellent defensive rebounder, he blocks a ton of shots, and surprisingly he draws a lot of charges. To block a lot of shots and draw a lot of charges is rare, and says a lot about a player’s ability to rotate over in help. He also does all that while usually drawing the opposing team’s best post player, and while carrying a huge load on offense every night. In addition, his on/off court defensive splits have been extremely good the last few years, despite having an excellent defensive player (Foster) backing him up.