Season Preview Primer

Dallas Mavericks

Coach: Rick Carlisle
2007-08 Record: 51-31
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 54-28
Offensive Rating: 111.1 (8^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 106.1 (9^th)
Possessions per 48: 90.2 (22^nd)
Min%: 82.2 (12^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

In what universe is Desagana Diop worth the full midlevel exception? Seriously, that’s right out of the Isiah Thomas playbook. Sure, he’s a good defender, but he’s not THAT good, and he’s absolutely terrible on offense. It’s literally like you’re playing 4 on 5 if he’s out there. No way is he worth $6 mil a year for the next 5 years.

I think Dirk has very subtly moved from being a bit overrated to being underrated by most people. Offensively, he’s just devastating. He passes extremely well for a big man, he very rarely turns the ball over (his turnover rate of 9.3 is outstanding for someone who handles the ball as much as he does), and of course he’s a phenomenal shooter. When he’s on (which is often), he’s absolutely unstoppable, since he can take one dribble and fade away while still releasing a shot with perfect form. Unless you happen to be Manute Bol, you’re probably not blocking Dirk’s fadeaway. His shooting was actually a bit worse all-around this year than it was the last two years, but he’s become a better passer while still maintaining his low turnover rate. Nowitzki’s defense has also gotten significantly better over the last few years. He’s not ever going to be confused with Bill Russell, but he’s not the sieve he once was. He can use his size and length to disrupt things in the middle, and he’s a fairly good defensive rebounder. Nowitzki has a caught a lot of flak for Dallas’ playoff failures the past two years, but he’s still one of the ten best players in the league.

Jason Terry probably benefits from the Jason Kidd trade more than anyone. He’s a shooting guard in a point guard’s body, so they can cross-match on defense and put the bigger Kidd on shooting guards. Terry is at his best when he isn’t being asked to run a team, and he’s just looking to put the ball in the bucket. He, like Dirk, has an obscenely low turnover rate, and shoots the ball extremely well from pretty much anywhere on the court. Surprisingly for a quick guard who takes a lot of shots, Terry doesn’t take a lot of free throws, mainly because he’s very reliant on his jumpshot. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, since he shoots the ball so well, but he shoots 86% from the line, so you wouldn’t mind seeing him get there a bit more often.

I think this might be the year we really see Jerry Stackhouse’s effectiveness drop off. He was never a real efficient scorer, and his playing time and usage rate have been steadily dropping basically for the last 7 years, but his efficiency isn’t going up. At 34, he’s lost a lot of the athleticism that made him a potent scorer, and he’s not the slasher he used to be. He’s been a big part of their bench the last few years, and if his effectiveness continues to fall off, the play of their second unit could really drop off.

Jason Kidd really fell off last season, and nobody really noticed during the season because…well, he’s Jason Kidd. Also, the change was rather subtle. His rebounding, assist and shooting percentage numbers stayed relatively in line with what we had been seeing from Kidd. There two big changes were that Kidd shot the ball less, and he turned the ball over a LOT more. His turnover rate of 23.2 was the second highest of any Mavs player last year, ahead of only the offensively incompetent Diop. Kidd’s turnover rate has always been a bit high, which isn’t that uncommon for high-assist guys, but last year it really skyrocketed. Combine that with the fact that his defense has really decayed over the last few years as he’s lost his quickness, and you see that Kidd’s production didn’t match his reputation. At this point, he’s still effective in transition because of his floor vision, but he’s a mediocre half-court player at best. He can’t turn the corner like he used to, he doesn’t finish at the rim well, he’s only a good shooter if his feet are set and there’s no one near him, and he’s turnover-prone. Unless he inexplicably makes a huge turnaround from last year (unlikely at age 35), Kidd is barely a mediocre starter, much less a real impact player.

The success of Brandon Bass off the bench was a pleasant surprise for Dallas last year, and he really improved the team’s second unit. However, I’m a bit skeptical that he’ll be able to repeat that success. For one, he showed a deadeye midrange shot last year (48.7% on jumpers), something that we hadn’t seen any indication of previously, and something that can typically be a bit fluky. Also, despite his strength, he got his shot blocked a lot right around the rim (23% of the time, according to 82games). Those two numbers really cause me to doubt whether he’ll be able to reproduce last season’s success. However, he’s still a young player with room for improvement, so we might see him continue to be Dallas’s best option off the bench.

X-Factor: Josh Howard – Well, it’s been quite a year for the enigmatic Mr. Howard. He certainly hasn’t made himself a lot of friends with his strange off the court remarks. One of the things to keep an eye on this year will be whether or not Howard lets the off-court stuff affect his play. It shouldn’t be a problem, but if he gets off to a slow start and the fans start to turn on him, Dallas could have a problem on their hands. Howard is crucial to the Mavs’ success since he’s among the best two-way wing players in the game. He’s a very good defensive player who is consistently asked to match up with the opponent’s top perimeter threat, and he’s also a great rebounder for his position. Offensively, his best attribute is that, like Nowitzki and Terry, he rarely turns the ball over. His turnover rate has steadily dropped throughout his career, and this year he had the 4^th best rate in the league. He’s a very versatile player who excels in the midrange, but can finish at the rim or get to the line. He’s still working on his three-point range, but he’s consistent enough that you can’t leave him open. Howard needs to improve his shot selection, which has gotten worse the last few seasons as he’s been asked to take a bigger role. Most notably, he’s been progressively been taking more jumpshots over the years and getting less looks closer to the basket, and his shooting percentage has taken a dip because of it. If he settles for a few less long twos and focuses on attacking the basket this year, Howard could really improve his efficiency and become a stronger #2 option for a team that really needs it.

Overview

Dallas last year was the epitome of a “solid” team. They weren’t spectacular on the offensive end, but they almost never turned the ball over (you might have noticed that was a recurring theme with Nowitzki, Terry and Howard) and they led the league in FT%. Defensively, they rarely gambled (last in the league in opponent turnover rate), but they held opponents to a low shooting percentage and they rebounded the ball extremely well. Then, the Mavericks took a gamble by trading their point guard of the future (Devin Harris) for point guard of the present Jason Kidd (who then turned out to be more like a point guard of the past). The move was ostensibly to add some toughness and give them some one to match up with the West’s elite point guards, in order to avoid a repeat of the previous year’s embarrassment at the hands of Golden State. The actual result, however, didn’t exactly match expectations. Dallas was only 16-14 after the trade, and limped into the playoffs as the 7^th seed. There they met New Orleans and Chris Paul, one of those elite point guards Kidd was brought in to help stop. Instead, Paul ran roughshod over Dallas, getting in the lane whenever he wanted and absolutely eviscerating the Mavs defense. Um…oops.

Prediction

The Mavericks have the feel of a team that is quickly unwinding. Three of their main rotation players (Stackhouse, Kidd and Erick Dampier) are at least 33 and have shown definite downward trends (well, I suppose Dampier hasn’t really, but he’s also never really shown any upwards trend in his career either). Keep in mind that this is a team that only really went 8 deep last year, and that’s including Diop and a career year from Bass. If these guys continue their downward trends, or if Bass regresses, Dallas could be really shorthanded this season. Luckily for them, the other contenders for the final Western playoff spots (Golden State, Denver) both got significantly worse this offseason. They’ll still be a fairly strong team if only because Dirk, Howard and Terry so good. However, if one of them goes down with an injury for any significant amount of time, Dallas could be in real trouble.

8^th in the West – The Young Guns and The Old Farts