Season Preview Primer

Houston Rockets

Coach: Rick Adelman
2007-08 Record: 55-27
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 55-27
Offensive Rating: 106.8 (17^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 101.6 (2^nd)
Possessions per 48: 90.4 (20^th)
Min%: 87.1 (8^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

If Tracy Mcgrady wants to get out of the first round, he’s going to have to realize that he isn’t the same player he was at 23 anymore. Players are usually still in their prime at age 28, but chronic back pain has robbed McGrady of much of what made him special. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still immensely talented. He’s one of the best passing forwards in the game, capable of running the offense as a point forward for long stretches, and there are still times when his shot is falling and he’s able to carry the offense. However, the majority of the time he settles for too many tough shots. It should help that the team will be more comfortable with Adelman’s ball movement system, and the addition of Artest should also help lighten the load on McGrady. A reduced role not only has the advantage of making McGrady more efficient, but it should keep him fresh for the playoffs, where he has famously run out of gas the last few years.

As for Artest, he’s definitely a huge addition for this team if he can keep his head on his shoulders. His ability to play either forward position is a huge boon, and between he and Shane Battier, the Rockets have probably the two best perimeter defenders in the game. He should immediately help improve their turnover rate since he’s got such quick, strong hands that he can rip steals away while still playing sensational defense. Offensively, he’s a very versatile weapon who can be extremely effective when he’s not forcing things. He’s very solid as a spot-up shooter, but significantly worse shooting off the dribble. He’s a good passer for the position, and he’s so strong that most wings can’t keep him out of the lane, and he’s quick enough that most posts can match him either. He’s also an effective post-up player, either bulling straight through people or hitting turnaround jumpers. If he’s willing to accept his role as the third option in Houston, I think Artest could have an extremely productive year.

Shane Battier has flown under the radar for a long time, but I think people are finally starting to appreciate that he’s not just an average role player, he’s one of the best defensive players in the game. He’s a premier one-on-one defender who played Kobe Bryant as well as anyone last year, but he’s also one of the rare perimeter players who impacts the entire team’s defense. He’s always in the right place on defensive rotations and does a great job taking the charge. He’s a valuable player on the other end too, consistent from deep and never trying to do more than he’s able.

They aren’t big names and they’re not exactly flashy, but the Rockets’ power forward corps is one of the deepest and most efficient in the league. Carl Landry, in particular, was absolutely fantastic once he became a regular part of Houston’s rotation (which, coincidentally, was right around the time they were reeling off a 22-game win streak). He rebounded like a maniac, almost never turned the ball over, got to the line a ton, and almost never missed around the basket. Though not as efficient as Landry, Luis Scola was also an effective option in the post, showing craftiness and touch inside, and demonstrating a bit more of a passing touch as well. Lastly, Chuck Hayes may not bring much to the offensive end (and by much, I mean…well, anything), but he’s a tenacious defender who gets the most out of what he’s got. Hayes isn’t tall, but he’s strong enough to hold position in the post, and he doesn’t give up easy shots, always making opponents shoot over top of him. Between the three of them, they combine to give the Rockets very strong production from the PF position.

He hasn’t actually signed yet, but I have a feeling Dikembe Mutumbo will be coming back, mostly because I can’t really picture the NBA without him. What Mutumbo continues to do at his age is nothing short of amazing. When Yao went down, Houston turned to him to fill in the starting spot, and Deke delivered. He’s still among the best rebounders and shotblockers in the league, even though he can really only play 10-15 minutes a game at this point.

Undoubtedly, the biggest weakness on the Houston roster is the point guard spot. The good news is that Rafer Alston had his best season as a Rocket last year. The bad news is that he still wasn’t a starting caliber player. Unfortunately, they don’t have a lot of other options. Brent Barry can play some point guard, but he certainly can’t guard the West’s elite points. McGrady may end up playing some at the point in a big lineup alongside Battier and Artest, but again, he’s not going to guard point guards, and they can’t play that lineup for too long. The hope is that youngsters Aaron Brooks and DJ Strawberry can improve enough to handle backup duties, but the likelihood of either making a big enough jump to take over the starting job is slim. Barring a trade, Houston is going to have to make due with Alston.

X-Factor: Yao Ming’s Fragile Feet – When Yao is healthy, he’s as dangerous a post player as there is in the league. He has terrific touch inside, and can go to either his turnaround or his hook shot, both of which are almost unblockable because of his size. He also has good floor vision and can hit the midrange shot as well, allowing him to step out and work from the high post some. He does a great job drawing contact, and shoots free throws better than any center in the league. Defensively, he’s not very mobile, so you can take advantage of him with the pick and roll, but his size and strength make him a very tough post defender and weakside shotblocker. When he’s healthy, Yao is easily one of the league’s ten best players. However, the question now is whether or not we’re ever going to see a full season from Yao. After being an ironman for the first three years of his NBA career, he’s been anything but in the years since. So, is he injury-prone, or just plain unlucky? I don’t know the answer to that question, but I do know that the Rockets need a healthy Yao in the playoffs if they want to avoid another first-round defeat.

Overview

It was really a tale of three seasons for the Rockets last year. Houston really got off to a poor start last season, going 15-16 through the first two months, and really looking like a team going nowhere. Then, they hit an easier stretch of their schedule and looked like they were starting to gel, putting together a 10-4 January. That was followed by a perfect February, as the team ran their winning streak to 12 games. Just when everything seemed to be coming together and the Rockets were looking like an unstoppable force, Yao went down for the season with a stress fracture in his foot. Pundits quickly wrote them off, but Houston managed to win 10 more in a row, stretching the streak to 22 games (2^nd longest in NBA history) before seeing it end against Boston. They finished out the year with a combined 19-7 record without Yao, better than anyone could’ve hoped for. How did they do it? Well, McGrady got most of the credit for the post-Yao success, but it was really the extraordinary second-half play of Scola and Landry that helped make up for the big man’s absence. Scola’s numbers markedly improved as the season went on and he became more comfortable with the NBA game. His scoring, shooting percentages, and rebounding numbers all steadily climbed in the last few months as he took over the starting PF job. Landry hardly played in the first half of the season, but once he made his way into the rotation he was an absolute monster, giving the Rockets huge production from the bench. Considering all they went through last year (Yao’s injury, McGrady missing 16 games, losing Alston for the first two games of the playoffs), you have to consider it a success to get the 4^th seed and take Utah to 6 games.

Prediction

If there’s a more unpredictable team coming into this year, I don’t know who it is. If Houston is healthy, they’re effectively the same team that was ripping through people in the middle of the season, except that they’ve added a third star in Artest. Considering that McGrady and Yao missed 43 games combined and they still won 55 games, in the best case scenario they’re the best team in the league. They should be the league’s best defensive team with Artest, and their offense should be greatly improved. However, the fate of this team ultimately rides on Yao’s health. We know McGrady will probably miss 10 or so games with his back, but we don’t know about Yao. Is he fated to be plagued with injuries for the rest of his career, or will he be like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, another freakishly tall center who lived on the DL early in his career, but has been remarkably consistent since. I’m hedging my bets by putting them third, since they’re a playoff team without Yao and a favorite for the title with him. They’re certainly one of the teams to watch this year.

3^rd in the West – The Wildcard