Memphis Grizzlies
Coach: Marc Iavaroni
2007-08 Record: 22-60
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 25-57
Offensive Rating: 105 (22nd in the league)
Defensive Rating: 111.4 (28th)
Possessions per 48: 95.3 (7th)
Min%: 52.5 (26th)
Four Factors:
|
eFG% |
TOV% |
RB% |
FT/FGA |
|
| Offensive | 50 (13th) | .140 (24th) | .238 (24th) | .225 (17th) |
| Defensive | 52.1 (29th) | .122 (25th) | .734 (15th) | .196 (3rd) |
Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)
Well, at least there was something positive for Memphis fans this summer. Rookie center Marc Gasol certainly looked like a solid player during the Olympics. He’s not going to blow anybody away and he’s not a superstar, but he’s very strong, shows some solid post skills, and can step out and hit some midrange jumpers too. Defensively, he’s not quick enough to be a huge shotblocking presence, but he’s a solid post defender who can keep people off the blocks with his strength. He’s certainly a better option than Darko Milicic.
Speaking of Milicic, I’m done with him. Last year, I was convinced he could at least block a few shots and help out the Grizzlies defense. However, he pretty much mailed in the year, much like he’s done throughout his career. He’s a 6th year player who still plays like a rookie, and that’s unacceptable, regardless of his young 
age. He’s shown little progress, still looks absolutely lost in defensive rotations, and shows little effort if he doesn’t have the ball in his hands. I’m done expecting anything positive from him.
Rudy Gay is a good player, but I think he’s being a bit overrated right now. He’s a great athlete who can really elevate and finish around the rim, but he doesn’t bring a whole lot else to the table. He’s a decent rebounder for his position, but he doesn’t set up his teammates much, he’s not a great perimeter shooter, and he surprisingly doesn’t get to the line a whole lot. However, he’s certainly established himself as someone to watch. He’s such a tremendous athlete that he could become a real defensive force (something the Grizzlies desperately need) ala Shawn Marion. In fact, there’s a whole lot of Marion in Gay’s game, but he’s a bit better at creating his own shot and a lot worse at rebounding the ball. I guess the point of this is, I like Gay, I think he could be an All-Star someday, but I’m not sure I want him to be my best player. Like I said with Andre Iguadola in the Sixers preview, I’m not sure you can win a title with Gay as your best player, unless you have crazy balance like the Pistons have had in recent years.
I may catch some flak for this, but I have very similar thoughts about O.J. Mayo. I like his game, I think he’s going to do very well as a rookie because he comes in with such a great skillset, but I’m not sure his ceiling is as high as people think it is. Despite his tremendous vertical, he’s not a tremendous athlete as far as quickness goes. He doesn’t have a great first step, so he’s not going to be able to turn the corner and get to the rim as easily at the NBA level. What Mayo does have is a tremendous jumpshot. He has a picture-perfect stroke and he elevates well so he can get his shot off against anyone. He has good floor vision, but he’s clearly not a pure point guard. I think he’ll end up being a great complementary player, a guy who can do a little bit of everything and who spaces the floor to make things easier for everyone else. However, I don’t think he’s an explosive enough offensive player to carry a team.
I really like Kyle Lowry. He’s a gritty player who doesn’t back down from anyone. He’s not much of a shooter, but he’s a tough finisher in the line who gets to the line a ton. He’s also a surprisingly good rebounder for a guy his size. Lastly, he’s a tenacious defender and ballhawk who is among the best in the league at picking his man’s pocket. Sadly though, he’s also caught in a position crunch with two guys the team has a lot invested in (former #4 pick Mike Conley and Javaris Crittenton, who came over in the Pau Gasol trade). If I were the Grizzlies, I’d be giving Lowry big minutes early in the season, then trying to trade him to a team in need of a point guard for a draft pick or a young big man.
The problem with Hakim Warrick is that he’s the very definition of a “tweener”. His game is that of a power forward. He’s a tremendous scorer
close to the basket because he’s so quick and unorthodox. He finishes extremely well and draws fouls in bunches. Unfortunately, he’s built like a small forward, and is an absolutely terrible post defender because he’s twig-thin. If he’s going to be anything more than a scorer off the bench, he’s going to have to bulk up to match up with power forwards.
X-Factor: Mike Conley – I love Conley, I have ever since I first saw him play in college. He was injured for almost half of last season, but he’s definitely a candidate to break out this season. He reminds me of a kind of combination of Tony Parker and Steve Nash. Parker in the way he’s able to finish around the rim in some truly ridiculous ways, and Nash in the way he’s nearly ambidextrous with his handles and how he uses hesitation in the lane to open up passing lanes. He’s certainly got some things to work on (mainly his shooting range), but he’s extremely skilled and an absolutely fantastic athlete. I think he has a chance to be one of the premier point guards in the league in the future, and he’s definitely someone I’ll be watching closely this year.
Overview
The Grizzlies had me fooled last year. I thought adding Iavaroni and Milicic would help their defense, and Iliked their offense with Gasol, Gay, Miller and Navarro. Well, things didn’t work out quite like I expected. They lost a handful of close games early in the year, and seemed to just mail in the majority of the season. Then, of course, came the infamous Pau Gasol trade, where Chris Wallace gift-wrapped the All-Star power forward and sent him to LA for cap relief and a poo-poo platter of assets. As you would expect, things didn’t get better after that. Just about the only positive for the Grizzlies last year was the improvement of Rudy Gay, who gave every indication that he might live up to his vast potential. Then, in the offseason, Wallace again proved his managerial acumen by trading draft pick Kevin Love (who obviously wouldn’t fit on a team that loves to run and has rebounding problems, right? …) for Mayo (who fits because Memphis has a shortage of guards, right? …), which wouldn’t have been bad if they hadn’t also given up Mike Miller and actually took back worse contracts than they gave away.
Prediction
There might not be a worse frontcourt in the league than Gasol, Milicic, Warrick. Darrell Arthur, and Antoine Walker. The backcourt has a lot of potential, but they’re all still extremely young. They’ll score some points, but I don’t see them stopping anyone. If Conley, Gay and Mayo all play out of their minds, maybe this team wins 30 games. More likely, they win 20-25 games and take up permanent residence at the bottom of the league. For the Grizzlies, it’s all about the future. Do I think they have a solid core in place for the future? Yes. Would I like them better with a starting lineup of Gasol, Kevin Love, Gay, Mike Miller and Conley? Absolutely. Oh well. Grizzlies fans can look forward to Chris Wallace directing their rebuilding efforts for the foreseeable future.
15th in the West – Up and Coming?
