Season Preview Primer

New Orleans Hornets

Coach: Byron Scott
2007-08 Record: 56-26
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 56-26
Offensive Rating: 111.5 (5^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 105.7 (7^th)
Possessions per 48: 89.9 (26^th)
Min%: 87.4 (5^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

There’s been enough written about Chris Paul over the last year that you probably don’t need me to tell you how good he is. I will say this though: if you think there’s a viable comparison to be made between Chris Paul and Deron Williams, you’re dead wrong. Paul has absolutely blown that debate out of the water. He’s unquestionably the best point guard in the NBA right now, and there’s no reason to think that’s going to change. Even if he didn’t get any better than this the rest of his career, Paul would finish out his career as one of the best point guards in NBA history. There are precious few flaws in his game.

I go back and forth all the time on David West. How much of his success do you attribute to playing next to Chris Paul? How much does West’s skillset help out Paul? Which came first, the chicken or the egg? After watching him more last year than I had in the past, I really think he’s a legit stud PF. He’s not one of the elite PFs, but he’s in that next tier with guys like Carlos Boozer and or Rasheed Wallace. He’s got a great mid-range game, which makes him tough to stop on the pick-and-roll with Paul, where he can pop out to the elbow or wing and kill you all day with jumpers. He’s also got a varied back-to-the-basket game and does a good job using fakes to get guys off their feet. He’s got long arms and good timing, which allows him to block a fair number of shots while playing very solid man defense.

Now, with Tyson Chandler, we can definitely attribute most of his success to Paul. The two have a fantastic connection, especially on the pick-and-roll. Chandler’s great length and athleticism make it so that Paul often just has to toss the ball towards the rim, and Chandler can come from out of nowhere to slam it through. Other than that, Chandler’s other big contribution on offense is his rebounding. He had the third highest offensive rebound rate in the league last year, and those rebounds often ended with dunks or tips. Now, you can’t give Chandler the ball in the post and expect him to score, that’s not going to happen. He’s also not going to hit many jumpshots. However, he finds ways to contribute without the ball in his hands, and that’s what you want in your role players. Defensively, he’s a fantastic player, despite the fact that he doesn’t block as many shots as you might think. He rebounds like a madman, plays excellent man defense, and hedges out on screens very well due to his athleticism.

Peja Stojakovic is probably the best spot-up shooter in the game today. If you give him any kind of space at all, just forget about it, it’s going in. He has remarkably consistent form, regardless of whether or not there’s a hand in his face, and his size and quick release make it extremely tough to contest his shot. He’s more dangerous now playing alongside Chris Paul because Paul is so good at getting him open looks. Stojakovic may not do as much off the dribble as he used to, but he also never gives anything away. He had the league’s lowest turnover rate last year by a pretty decent margin.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with James Posey and Morris Peterson at the shooting guard spot. Likely, we’ll see Peterson start games, but Posey will probably see more minutes as the backup 2/3. We might also see them line up with Posey or Stojakovic at PF some this year since they really lack post depth behind the starters. At any rate, Posey and Peterson bring a lot of the same things to the table. They’re both primarily perimeter shooters offensively, and they’re both very solid defensive wings. Posey is the better defender and he has a bit more versatility since he’s got a bit more height and strength. Posey is also a terrific rebounder for his position, something that could allow him to slide over to the PF spot on occasion.

X-Factor: Julian Wright - Wright very quietly had a fairly decent rookie year. He didn’t play much during the year for the contending Hornets, but he got a lot more burn at the end of the season, and then played some significant minutes in both of the team’s playoff series. Mainly, he earned those minutes because of the impact he had defensively with his energy and athleticism. He’s already a disruptive presence, with a high steal rate due to his quickness and length. Offensively, Wright is still finding his way, scoring the majority of his baskets off of cuts and alley-oops. This year, with more confidence and a full NBA season under his belt, the hope is that we’ll see some of the offensive skillset that made him a lottery pick out of Kansas. In college, Wright was inconsistent, but was as good as any player in the country when he was focused. He can score in the post or from the midrange, and he’s a tremendous passer for a frontcourt player. If Wright can continue to build on his improvement during last season, he could give the Hornets a desperately needed frontcourt option off the bench. He’ll have to add strength to guard PFs, but he could develop into an Andrei Kirilenko-type presence with his varied skillset. New Orleans needs bench depth, and Wright has the talent to provide that.

Overview

I think it’s safe to say that the Hornets “exceeded expectations.” After being devastated by injuries the previous year and finishing 39-43, last year’s model was decidedly better than that. With a healthy roster, New Orleans exploded to a 56-26 record, good for 2^nd in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. Chris Paul built on his first two very good years and turned in an absolutely outrageous season, finishing 2^nd in the MVP race and establishing himself as the best point guard in the league. Offensively, the Hornets did almost everything well. They shot the ball very well, turned the ball over less than any team in the league, and rebounded at an above-average rate. What they didn’t do well, somewhat surprisingly, is draw fouls. Now, you expect that to some extent because so much of their offense came from jumpshots (see: Stojakovic, Peja). However, dynamic penetrating guards usually make a killing at the free throw line. That’s not the case with Paul. For a guard of his caliber, he has a remarkably low free throw rate. The team is filled with good free throw shooters (10^th in the league in FT%), but they just rarely got to the charity stripe. Of course, they flipped that situation on their opponents also, giving up the least FT/FGA in the league. They also rebounded exceptionally well on the defensive end. What that means is they rarely gave teams easy points by giving them second chances or free throws. So, despite allowing an above-average eFG%, they were a top 10 defensive team. The only real issue this team had was depth, and because they were able to stay healthy and stayed out of foul trouble.

Prediction

I think you have to consider this team one of the favorites to come out of the West this year, if only because of the presence of Paul. He’s one of a handful of players who can quite literally win a playoff series by himself. Even more than avoiding injuries, his meteoric rise was what led to the Hornets’ huge improvement last season. The front office has done a fabulous job of assembling a supporting cast which plays right to Paul’s strengths. The starting five is, in my opinion, the best in the league. They’re extraordinarily well-balanced, and Paul orchestrates the team perfectly. The only problem this team faces is their bench. With Posey and Wright, they’re alright at the wing positions, but the frontcourt outside of the starters West and Chandler is sorely lacking. The advantage the Hornets have is that they’re extremely good at playing defense without fouling, so that lack of depth doesn’t usually come back to hurt them, but if they suffer serious injuries to either West or Chandler, this team could be in big trouble. Regardless of that, Paul is one of the 3 best basketball players in the world right now, so I can’t see this team falling under 50 wins unless they’re absolutely devastated by injuries, and they’ll be even more dangerous in the playoffs.

2nd in the West - The Favorites