Season Preview Primer

San Antonio Spurs

Coach: Greg Popovich
2007-08 Record: 56-26
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 55-27
Offensive Rating: 107.2 (15^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 101.8 (3^rd)
Possessions per 48: 88.8 (28^th)
Min%: 88.3 (3^rd)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

Tim Duncan is still the league’s best power forward, and there’s really no reason to think that’s going to change. Duncan has been a rock his entire career, and shows no real signs of slowing. He’s been the league’s best defensive player over the last 5 years, and has no real flaws on offense. He’s among the best passing big men in the league, he rarely turns the ball over, and he’s among the league’s best rebounders year-in and year-out. As long as he’s playing at a high level, Duncan makes the Spurs a contender because of the way he dominates the game on both ends. He’s one of the rare players who knows how to raise his game to the next level come playoff time, and becomes almost unstoppable when the chips are down. Can put up 20-20 games seemingly without effort and just absolutely dominate a series.

People only really started catching on last year, but Manu Ginobili has been one of the league’s best shooting guards for the past 4 years. He’s overlooked because he comes off the bench and because the Spur’s slow play keeps his numbers down, but he’s an absolute killer. The fact that he didn’t make the All-Star team last year was an absolute travesty. One of the main reasons San Antonio lost to the Lakers last year is that Manu just seemed to run out of gas in the postseason, which was a bit strange because he’s been absolutely fantastic in past playoffs. With that in mind, Manu’s injury this offseason may have been a blessing in disguise. If he can come back and round back into playing shape by the postseason, the Spurs could be better off since he’s effectively able to rest half the season. Of course, if Ginobili doesn’t come back at full effectiveness, it’s a different story. San Antonio needs his offensive production to be effective. He’s a great shooter, both catch-and-shoot and off the dribble, and he gets to the rim with consistency despite almost always going to his left. Few players in the league can match the diversity of his game, and that’s what makes him such a huge key to the Spurs.

I think you’re going to see a much more even minutes split between Bruce Bowen and Ime Udoka this year. Bowen has held up remarkably well over the years, but he’s 37 now and his biggest strength (actually, his only strength), perimeter defense, requires the ability to move laterally, which typically doesn’t hold up well with age. He’s been remarkably durable over the course of his career, but you’ve got to wonder how long he can remain a good enough defensive player to offset how bad an offensive player he is. Udoka isn’t as good a defender against quicker guards, but he’s probably better against bigger forwards, and he’s a much better rebounder. He got more minutes as the year went on last year, and I think he’ll play about 20-25 mpg this year to help keep Bowen fresh.

I like the Roger Mason pickup. He’s a good shooter who can back up either guard position. He’ll help make up for the absence of Manu early, and should at very least improve the backup point guard spot that has been occupied by the ineffective Jacque Vaughn.

Ian Mahinmi could add some youth and athleticism that this roster is badly lacking. He’s only played 48 minutes in the NBA, but he was excellent in the D-League last year, and he’s a terrific athlete. He could have an impact similar to what Amir Johnson is doing in Detroit. If he can contribute efficiently and bring defense and rebounding for about 10-15 minutes a game as the 4^th big man, he could be an impact player.

Michael Finley was one of the worst starters on any contending team last year. He’s gotten to the point where he’s not much of a threat offensively beyond just knocking down open jumpers. He just can’t turn the corner or elevate like he used to, so he’s relegated to spot-up duty. Unlike Bowen, he’s not a good enough defensive player to make up for those shortcomings. He’ll be called on to play more in Manu’s absence, but once Manu comes back Finley will probably play a lot less than previous years with Mason around.

Kurt Thomas was a great midseason pickup last year, and he should stay fairly productive this year. He’s a very smart defender who excels at tapping the ball away when people try to post him up. He also rebounds extremely well in his area, though he’s not really athletic enough anymore to pursue rebounds outside his reach. Offensively, he won’t do much, but he sets good screens and hits midrange jumpers consistently.

X-Factor: Tony Parker – It’s a bit odd to be calling Parker the X-Factor since he’s been around for a while and we pretty much know his game by now, but I think he’s the key to this season. He’ll have to carry a bigger load when Manu is out and while he’s trying to work his way into game shape, so Parker will have to generate more offense while still maintaining his efficiency in order for the Spurs to stay in contention for a home-court playoff berth. To do that he’ll have to do two things. First, he’ll have to return to shooting outrageous percentages around the rim, since his shooting percentage around the basket dropped off a bit last year from his usual otherworldly numbers. Second, he has to become more deadly shooter from the midrange, or maybe even from three-point range. The Parker/Duncan pick-and-roll is so devastating the opponents almost have to give Parker open jumpers, and the Spurs are almost unbeatable when he’s hitting them consistently. If Parker can improve that shot, he can maybe keep this team in contention another year. He’s only 26, so it’s not out of the question that we see some improvement from him (he’s about the only Spur you can say that about), and San Antonio could use it.

Overview

Last year was an even year, so the Spurs continued their pattern of winning titles only in odd years. They had a strong regular season which netted them the 3^rd seed in the West, but they also started to show some noticeable signs of aging. Guys like Finley, Bowen and especially Robert Horry had significant drop-offs in their production. That left San Antonio without a lot of depth, and it put even more pressure on the also aging big three of Duncan-Ginobili-Parker. The lack of young legs seemed to catch them in the playoffs, where Manu in particular looked like he ran out of gas against the Lakers. However, they were still one of the league’s best teams last year, and the third best defensive team (finishing top five in 3 of the 4 significant categories).

Prediction

They’ll almost certainly be a worse regular season team than they were last year. With Ginobili missing a good chunk of the season, and continued decline from the old guys, around 50 wins is probably the best you can predict for them. However, they do have two things going for them. One, it’s an odd year championship (ok, maybe that’s not such a big deal). Two, they’ve still got that Duncan fellow. As long as The Big Fundamental continues to play at this level, the Spurs will be contenders. They will play great defense every year, and Duncan takes the offense to a different level in the postseason. In addition, this year Manu should have much fresher legs in the playoffs, and that’s trouble for opponents. The Spurs have, for the most part, owned the last decade, but their window of opportunity for another ring is closing quickly. They may not get many more shots at this, so I think we’re guaranteed to see the best of them when it really counts. One thing is for sure, I don’t want to draw them as my first round opponent.

4th in the West – The Old Standby

‘xphoenix87′ is a BallerBlogger Contributing Writer. He likes long walks on the beach and advanced statistical analysis. You may have noticed, he’s doing a preview for all 30 NBA teams. Stay tuned, Chicago (Da Bulls) is tomorrow.