Cleveland Cavaliers
Coach: Mike Brown
2007-08 Record: 45-37
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 40-42
Offensive Rating: 106 (19th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 106.4 (11th)
Possessions per 48: 90.2 (22nd)
Min%: 59.5 (25th)
Four Factors:
|
eFG% |
TOV% |
RB% |
FT/FGA |
|
| Offensive | 48 (26th) | .131 (12th) | .304 (2nd) | .221 (20th) |
| Defensive | 49.4 (10th) | .129 (18th) | .759 (2nd) | .240 (18th) |
Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)
If you don’t already know more than enough about LeBron James, than you haven’t been paying attention. He’s the best basketball player on the planet right now, and it’s not close. LeBron, at age 24, is dominating the NBA like only a handful of others have done before. He has the floor vision of a star point guard, the quickness and ups of a star
shooting guard, the scoring instincts of a star small forward, and the size, strength and rebounding of a star power forward. The closest the league has ever seen to him is Magic, but Magic didn’t have this kind of freakish athleticism. Watching LeBron play is like watching Techmo Bo Jackson on steroids, simply unstoppable…and he’s only 24.
Anderson Varejao is one of the more underrated defensive players in the league. He doesn’t get a lot of recognition as an elite defensive player, but he’s an extremely tough matchup. He’s a pest in the post, but he’s also terrific on switches. His feet are so quick that he can effectively defend guards on switches most of the time, and that makes him invaluable to the team defense. He also rebounds at an extremely high rate. Of course, he’s absolutely terrible on the offensive end. He’s awful if he’s not shooting a dunk or a layup, but unfortunately he doesn’t seem very in tune with that fact. He continues to fire away from midrange, even though he’s clearly unable to make that shot.
Everyone keeps harping on the decline of Ben Wallace, and while it’s true that he’s certainly not the player he once was, and that’s he’s comically overpaid, he’s also not quite as bad as everyone seems to think. He’s no longer an elite defensive player because he’s lost a lot of his quickness, but he’s still extremely effective at that end. He’s still a solid rebounder, still blocks shots at a high rate (though not like he used to), and is still strong enough to push most guys off the blocks. He gives you less than nothing offensively, and you can’t have him in at the end of games because people will hack him to put him on the line, but there are worse things than to have a strong defender as your 3rd big man.
I love the Mo Williams pickup. He’s an excellent shooter, but beyond that he’s a guy who can create plays for himself or others. Cleveland has guys who can shoot the ball (Delonte West, Boobie Gibson, Wally Szczerbiak), but they’re all catch-and-shoot guys, they need someone else to create opportunities for them. Williams can shoot both off the catch and off the bounce, and he’s also not bad at setting others up. He’s really exactly what Cleveland needed to pair with LeBron. He can hit the set shot, which is important since LeBron will have the ball most of the time. However, he can also create some on his own to take the load off of LeBron or keep the team alive when King James goes to the bench.
As I mentioned above, this Cleveland team that was devoid of shooters for so long now has plenty of them. West and Szczerbiak will battle for the starting 2-guard spot, and I’d give West the edge. Szczerbiak is the better shooter, but West, despite his smaller size, is the better defender and a bit better as a rebounder. We might also see the Cavs run some smaller lineups with LeBron at the 4 and West and Szczerbiak together at the 2 and 3. Gibson will take the backup PG spot, and probably get some minutes at SG. If Sasha Pavlovic can bounce back after the terrible year he had last year, he could potentially give them another wing option who can shoot and play solid defense.
I think J.J. Hickson has a pretty decent chance to contribute as the Cavs’ fourth big man this year. He may be young, but he already has an NBA-ready body. He’s tremendously strong and loves to dunk everything around the rim. 
We’ve seen a lot of rookies over the past few years who contribute immediately in the strong, garbage man PF role. Paul Millsap, Carlos Boozer, Leon Powe/Glen Davis, Carl Landry, Jason Maxiell etc. All very successful in that role as rookies. I think Hickson could definitely have that kind of impact this year.
I really like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, I think he’s tremendously underrated by most people. He’s not an All-Star, but he’s still one of the better starting centers out there. He’s the only real post threat on the Cavs roster, even if they don’t go to him that often anymore. His two biggest strengths on offense are his rebounding and his midrange shot. At 7′3, he uses his tremendous reach to get a ton of offensive rebounds (5th highest ORB%), and he’s one of the best in the league at tipping the ball into the basket. He’s also one of the best free throw shooting big men in the league, even shooting technical free throws for the team at times. Defensively, he’s a very good rebounder and shotblocker, but he lacks mobility, which can make him vulnerable to the pick and roll.
X-Factor: Mike Brown – The pieces are there. Lebron is surrounded by shooters, and they have another creator in Mo Williams. There’s no excuse if the Cavs finish in the bottom half of the league offensively again. We know Brown can coach defense, but if he doesn’t install any plays other than “give the ball to LeBron,” Cleveland won’t ever win a title. It’s up to Brown now. If he shows the offensive creativity to take advantage of all the weapons he has, all is well. If not, well…
Overview
The Cavs’ season started off rough, with Varejao and Pavlovic holding out for contracts and LeBron missing 7 games early in which the Cavs were almost unbelievably bad. Varejao came back and was able to regain his form, Pavlovic not so much. With a lack of shooters and shot creators, Cleveland struggled offensively even with LeBron. Despite LeBron taking tons of shots at a high percentage, the team had the 3rd worst eFG% in the league. Despite LeBron’s prodigious free throw rate, they were in the bottom half of the league in getting to the free throw line. If you took King James away, they were undoubtedly the worst offensive team in the league. Their midseason trades to bring in Joe Smith, West and Szczerbiak, but they still weren’t much to look at. What they did do well is rebound. The Cavs were the league’s best rebounding team by a pretty large margin. Despite their rather underwhelming regular season, The LeBrons beat Washington handily and pushed the champion Boston Celtics to 7 games.
Prediction
Now, just to be clear, I don’t think Cleveland will necessarily finish the regular season in first place. They’re not built as a regular season squad like a team like Detroit is. However, I think they’re the best bet as a playoff contender. They finally have some help for LeBron, and he’s so good that he can own a playoff series on his own. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, but at the end of the day, one thing matters. They have LeBron, and you don’t. Call it a feeling, a gut hunch, but I think this is the year the best basketball player in the world breaks through and wins a title. They have shooters, they’ll play strong defense, and they’ve got LeBron. On top of that, they’ve got Szczerbiak’s expiring contract to move for another piece at the trade deadline. All that together, and this team should be significantly better than Cleveland’s Finals team from two years ago. And, did I mention, they’ve got LeBron.
xphoenix87 is a BallerBlogger Contributing Writer. He’s doing season previews of all 30 NBA teams. Tomorrow is Detroit, so check that out. Or don’t, not like I can stop you.
October 12th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Wow – I don’t think I would have ever written this favorable of a preview for the Cavs. I love em – and they have a very high ceiling this year – but they also have plenty of room for disappointment. Here’s my take what we KNOW, and what we DON’T KNOW about this year’s Cavs.
What we know:
LeBron is going to have another monster year – even when he struggles, he’s usually the best player on the court. He can average a triple double and you’d think he had an off night.
The Cavs will defend in the playoffs. They’ve done it EVERY YEAR in the Mike Brown era. They seem to get stronger defensively with each game. Even in the finals “sweep” that is often used as a tool for humiliation to Cavs fans – they brought more toughness to each game and each final score was closer than the previous against the 2007 Spurs (IMO) the best team since the 2000 Lakers.
The Cavs are THIN on the front line. Even if everyone is healthy – LeBron is going to have to play some 4. If Z or Varejao goes down – this team is going to have a very hard time.
The Cavs believe they can win a championship – LeBron believes he can single handedly beat any team on any given night – he always has – but now he believes that if he struggles his team can support him. The Mo Williams signing was huge for the Cavs.
What we don’t know: Will LeBron learn to post up? He has yet to add this to his arsenal – and it is vital this year more than ever. Drew Gooden is no longer in C-Town to clog up the lane. Z is less and less effective on the low block. Varejao can’t shoot, Wallace can’t do ANYTHING, and Hickson is a rookie. The Cavs are going to HAVE to score easy buckets and they can’t all be LeBron driving from the 3 point line. He is such a good passer that he needs to be put on the block from time to time. If he learns this skill he truly becomes unstoppable on offense because a team like the celtics can’t put 2 guys on him at all times counting on Garnett to back them up once LeBron gets into the teeth – he’s already setting up there. One of the problems has been that LeBron has always been the best ballhandler and passer on the Cavs. He can’t make an entry pass to himself. And the Cavs have all these tweener guards that aren’t skilled at making entry passes. Mo Williams should be able to fix that.
Will Mo Williams mesh? I’ve seen a handful of players mesh very well with LeBron James. Boobie Gibson, Chris Bosh(Olmypics), Varajeo(2007), and Dwight Howard(All-star Game). That’s it. LeBron has always been a point-forward so he likes setting guys up. No one sets LeBron up – he sets them up. What everyone is banking on is that Mo Williams will be able to operate on his own, set up LeBron occasionally, and be able to feed off LeBron’s creativity. Larry Hughes was NOT that guy – although it should be noted that the Cavs VERY STRONGLY pursued Ray Allen and Michael Redd before settling for Hughes. Hughes shot a low percentage, and lost his quickness which was vital for breaking down defenses in Washington. He’s literally become a spot up shooter and solid wing defender because he doesn’t have the quickness to blow by anyone. Williams doesn’t have this problem yet. He is very quick and gets into the teeth at will. This will be the first time the Cavs have had a player with this ability since LeBron was drafted. They will have to take advantage.
Will Boobie, Sasha, and Varejao regain form?
If I’m the ULTIMATE OPTIMIST – then here’s how these players fare:
Despite the contract holdout – missing training camp – and suffering many injuries – Anderson Varejao was still important to the Cavs last season. They went 30-20 when he played at all – even if he was injured or out of shape.
In the month of January he averaged 8.2 points and 9.0 rebounds on 50% shooting in less than 30 minutes a game. He was looking great – even hitting little 15 foot jumpers, before he went down with an injury. If he can get back to that form – averaging slightly under 10 and 10 in 30 minutes of work – it will be HUGE for the Cavs.
Boobie Gibson – It was a tale of two seasons for Gibson. From Opening day until his injury he averaged double figures and lead the NBA in 3 point % for some time. He went into the all-star game, drained 11 threes in the rookie-sophmore game, and looked like he was poised to dominate in the 2nd half – and then he went down with a high ankle sprain, and never really returned to form. Even when played, he looked terrible, couldn’t hit an open shot, and when he finally started to produce again (against Boston) he got hurt and couldn’t play in game 7. If Daniel goes back to hitting 45%+ on 3s and occasionally getting points off the dribble, like he did pre-injury – it will be HUGE for the Cavs.
Sasha Pavlovic – Sasha played absolutely horrific last year when he came back to the team from the holdout – I mean he played so bad they replaced him with Ira Newble in the starting lineup. The same Ira Newble who couldn’t play more than 1 minute in the entire Laker’s playoff run was STARTING for the Cavs – (think about that for a second). Anyway, Sasha played 2 very solid games in a row and looked like the Sasha of 2006-2007 – and then he got injured. He never returned to form – but if he can limit turnovers and make spot up 3s – he can be an effective wing player.
Ok, now the pessimist in me remembers when John Hollinger used this same argument for his case that the Cavs would win like 55 games in 2006 because there was no way their guards could have played any WORSE than they had. Well, they did, and the Cavs won 50 games. So we’ll see.
Will the Cavs get something for Wally World’s expiring contract? This is essentially the last big piece of trade bait the Cavs have. They might also have Eric Snow’s 7 mil – but that is still up in the air pending a league decision on his retirement. All said, the Cavs will have between 13 and 20 million expiring next season to offer. The guy that makes the most AND least sense in Vince Carter. He made 13 mil last year and the nets are clearly looking to rebuild and are not going to do it around an aging Carter. He can still shoot well and pass well and would give the Cavs a go-to scorer when LeBron is on the bench, in addition to adding some athleticism to the team. However, New Jersey has apparently decided to suck ass for the next 2 seasons just so they can try to lure LeBron there in 2010 – so I can’t see why they would want to GIVE the Cavs the title before that. And a Vince Carter/LeBron James/Mo Williams trio would give the Cavs a banner. But if not Carter who else? I really can’t see the Cavs hanging onto Wally – even if he shoots well – they have enough shooters now that they don’t have to live with his anemic athleticism. If they don’t package Szczerbiak and or Snow, then they leave their flexibility open to sign a big-time free agent in the 09 off-season.
All these things remain to be seen. I think the Cavs could have injuries and chemistry issues had win only 44 games. I think they could mesh well and stay healthy and win 55. And they will be a better playoff team than regular season team because their defense THRIVES in grind-it-out games and LeBron thrives in clutch situations.
I’ll go out on a limb and say I agree that this is the year LeBron puts the exclamation point on an already stunning career with a championship.
October 12th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
“Will LeBron learn to post up?”
I honestly do not understand the fascination with this. Why would you want to take the most devastating perimeter player in the league and have him bang in the post? Would you like to see the Cavs get LeBron the ball in the midrange area some so that he doesn’t have as far to go? Absolutely. Catching the ball in the low post and trying to make post moves? not so much. Rather, the most obvious place for LeBron to improve his game is shooting the basketball, that’s what people should be worried about. If he becomes more consistent from deep and from the free throw line, the rest of the league might as well just go home.
“Will Mo Williams mesh?”
There’s a huge difference between Larry Hughes and Mo Williams. Most importantly, Williams can shoot the rock. Larry Hughes has never been a good jumpshooter. I don’t think he’ll have any trouble fitting in with LeBron.
“Will Boobie, Sasha, and Varejao regain form?”
I’m not worried about Gibson and Varejao. Both had very apparent reasons for any lack of production (injury, holdout), and they both played pretty well anyway. Pavlovic, honestly he’s just not that important. There’s plenty of SG depth, and it’s not like LeBron’s backup at SF will play that many minutes. If he plays well, it’s nice to have, but he’s by no means crucial.
“Will the Cavs get something for Wally World’s expiring contract?”
You’ll probably see a few more options thrown around as we get into the season and various players get disgruntled and so on. However, it’ll be tough to find a partner since they’ll basically have to be taking back just cap space, since Cleveland has no other real assets (of course, that was enough to get Pau Gasol last year).
October 12th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
“Will LeBron learn to post up?”
I honestly do not understand the fascination with this. Why would you want to take the most devastating perimeter player in the league and have him bang in the post? Would you like to see the Cavs get LeBron the ball in the midrange area some so that he doesn’t have as far to go? Absolutely. Catching the ball in the low post and trying to make post moves? not so much. Rather, the most obvious place for LeBron to improve his game is shooting the basketball, that’s what people should be worried about. If he becomes more consistent from deep and from the free throw line, the rest of the league might as well just go home.
X – you’re absolutely right. But LeBron has been working tirelessly on FT shooting the last 2 years – and he’s only gotten worse. I’m just not convinced he’s ever going to be a sharpshooter. No one expected people like Barkley and Malone to shoot 3s at 40% or better.
As far as MY fascination with LeBron posting up – I have a fascination with LeBron learing to post and learning to crash the O-Boards. On D, he comes up with the MOST FEROCIOUS Rebounds in clutch situations. He just skies above everyone and wants it more. Why doesn’t he EVER do this on the O glass? I don’t know. If he’s not in on the play, he sits at the perimeter and watches some other Cav clank one off the iron. Wouldn’t you want the most athletic player on the court crashing the O Boards? As far as posting up – the only reason guys like James Posey, Bruce Bowen, Kobe Bryant, and Shane Battier can keep LeBron below 50 points a night(with a little help from their friends) is because they can stick their hands in LeBron’s face and push him all over the arc all day. Hell, I could do that. But they’re giving up 20-60 pounds! They never have to worry about it because LeBron doesn’t post up. As long as they have the quickness to stay relatively in front – the help comes when it is needed. LeBron’s the best finisher in the league, so you have to imagine if he got the footwork down he would find creative ways to finish in the post.
Take this scenario – LeBron has developed a post game. James Posey is now guarding LeBron at the 3 point arc. LeBron passes it to Mo Williams and posts up on the block. He gets it back – easy bucket over (and through) Posey. Next possession – the hornets throw David West on LeBron to get some more size. LeBron backs out to the 3 point line – he makes 1 move, blows by West, and gets to the rim. Next possession – same as before, expect LeBron gets doubled as he backs out – he kicks it out to Mo Will – who drives the paint and dishes to JJ Hickson the weakside cutter for a slam.
You would NEVER see option A right now. And probably never option B because 2 guards would flank LeBron all day.
Option C should happen no matter what now that the Cavs have a PG that can break down defenses – but it will happen so much more effortlessly if LeBron MUST be double teamed at all times. Right now he gets doubled when he gets inside 25 feet – but when he’s out beyond the arc, they stick 1 guy on him and the others get ready to converge or get back to the shooters. If LeBron could post up – it would add so much to the Cavs offense.
October 13th, 2008 at 12:58 am
“I’m just not convinced he’s ever going to be a sharpshooter. No one expected people like Barkley and Malone to shoot 3s at 40% or better.”
LeBron is a far cry from either of those guys. Besides, it took Jordan 6 years before he shot even 30% from the arc. Once you get to the pro level, it often takes a while to iron out all the flaws that players have built into their shot over the years. With LeBron, it’s not like the shooting ability isn’t there. He can stroke the ball, and when he’s hitting it’s impossible to guard him, but he’s inconsistent. That consistency comes by ironing out the little things, like not fading away on every shot you take.
As for the free throws, that’s probably more of a mental thing, it almost always is with free throws.
“On D, he comes up with the MOST FEROCIOUS Rebounds in clutch situations. He just skies above everyone and wants it more. Why doesn’t he EVER do this on the O glass?”
Probably because he’s the one initiating the offensive play the vast majority of the time. Honestly, this is the least of the Cavs’ concerns. They’ve been far-and-away the league’s best offensive rebounding team over the last few years.
“the only reason guys like James Posey, Bruce Bowen, Kobe Bryant, and Shane Battier can keep LeBron below 50 points a night(with a little help from their friends) is because they can stick their hands in LeBron’s face and push him all over the arc all day.”
Let’s be clear. There are two reasons LeBron ever gets shut down. One is when he decides he’s going to gun it from downtown all game and it’s not falling. The other is if opponents sink 3 guys into the lane every time he puts the ball on the floor. Short of that, you’re just not stopping him. There isn’t any single defender in the game today that can deter LeBron from getting into the lane, he’s just too fast and too strong. Once he gets there, there’s no single help defender that can keep him from the rim, because he elevates higher than anyone, and he shrugs off contact like Shaq in his prime. The only way you stop him is to send a second guy at him as soon as he gets within 20 feet and another once he gets into the lane. That’s why I think it’s important to try and run him off down screens and try and get him the ball in the midrange area, then opponents have to send a second defender before he dribbles the ball, and he’d pick them apart. Even without that though, with good shooters and any kind of offensive spacing, there’s no reason the Cavs shouldn’t be a top 10 offensive team.
October 13th, 2008 at 6:28 am
I also do not think the Cavs will even sniff the #1 seed in the East, but I think they COULD be the toughest out in the playoffs in the East. The level of defense this team can play in a playoff series, where everything tends to slow down to the Cavs’ pace, gives them a huge edge as it actually emphasizes LeBron’s importance to the Cavs.
Anyway, nice writeup.
October 13th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
X said, “Why would you want to take the most devastating perimeter player in the league and have him bang in the post? Would you like to see the Cavs get LeBron the ball in the midrange area some so that he doesn’t have as far to go? Absolutely. Catching the ball in the low post and trying to make post moves? not so much. Rather, the most obvious place for LeBron to improve his game is shooting the basketball, that’s what people should be worried about.”
LeBron doesn’t do his damage ON the perimeter. He does his damage in the paint. So it only makes sense to get him the rock as close to the basket as possible. I agree that he needs to improve upon his shooting. But the closer he is to the basket, the higher his shooting percentage will be. He may not be as exciting to watch with his back to the basket, but he would be more efficient.
If you don’t want him down low, fine, give him the ball at the high post. Regardless, he needs to start positioning himself closer to the basket.
Tsunami said, “The guy that makes the most AND least sense in Vince Carter.” You’re right about least. You don’t want VC on your team. It would be Larry Hughes all over again. Vince is a better player than Hughes, but he would be marginalized in your offense.
X said, “With LeBron, it’s not like the shooting ability isn’t there. He can stroke the ball, and when he’s hitting it’s impossible to guard him, but he’s inconsistent. That consistency comes by ironing out the little things, like not fading away on every shot you take.”
LeBron needs to completely retool his shooting mechanics. He really needs to start from the ground up and work on everything from his feet placement to his release. I don’t know if his ego would allow him to do that. He could practice from sun up to sun down, and he would improve, but he’ll never be consistent shooting the basketball the way he does.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
I agree with the notion the Cavs will be tougher in the slower, slug-it-out, half court nature of the playoffs. I think we should all agree on that.
But tops in the East? I think 46 wins is generous, really. You argued against me on the topic of the Raptors, how the Pythagorean formula suggested they underachieved last season. Ok, well, by that same token then, the Cavs OVERACHIEVED last season… and they only won 45 games. So they added Mo Williams, an injury-prone ballhog who doesn’t play D, and JJ Hickson. All of a sudden they’re going to win the 50+ games necessary for one of the top two seeds in the East?
This team isn’t better than Boston, Detroit, Philly or Orlando. At least they won’t be in the regular season. You know what that means, right? They will not have home court advantage, something that has been EXTREMELY beneficial to them in years past. This team has had a losing record on the road three straight years.
So, really, truthfully, honestly, logically, there’s no shot in hell this team goes anywhere UNLESS they make SIGNIFICANT personnel changes.
Until they land a Vince Carter or Shawn Marion or someone of THAT caliber, forget it. They’re not even worth talking about.
October 17th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
I’m well aware that Cleveland had a negative point differential last year, but there are several reasons why I’m not real worried about it.
1) They only had Varejao for half a season. That’s a big deal. He’s a great defensive big man, and they really suffered when he was out.
2) They were very noticeably struggling to gel after their midseason trade. When you swap that many rotation players in the middle of a season, it’s going to take some time to make it work. That shouldn’t be an issue this year.
3) The very durable LeBron missed 7 games. While 7 games isn’t usually a huge deal, the Cavs were so reliant on James that it made a big difference. If you look at just the games James played in, they go from having a negative point differential to having the point differential of a 45 win team.
That’s why I’m not putting too much stake in their Pythagorean Win% from last year. This year, they add Mo Williams, who is the best offensive threat James has had in Cleveland. Do I think that’s going to make them finish first in the East? Nope. I agree with you that they might not even finish in the top 4. Big picture though is that they’re an entirely different animal in the playoffs. James is the best player on the planet, and he’s getting better. In the playoffs, they can play him 45-48 minutes a game, and no other team in the league can handle that. For the last 3 years, he’s taken the defending champ Pistons to 7 games, he’s broken through the Pistons to get to the Finals, and he’s taken the Celtics to 7 games. This team has better shooters and depth than any of those other teams, and they have the potential to make a trade in midseason. There’s also no team in the West that is going to stonewall them in the Finals like the Spurs did. I love the Lakers, Hornets and Rockets, but not one of those teams is equipped to deal with LeBron like that San Antonio team was. Obviously, it’s not a guarantee, the playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot anyway, but at the end of the day I’m going to gamble on the team with the game’s most unstoppable weapon.
October 17th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I can agree with most of that, X…
But don’t you think LeBron will miss a few games again? Don’t you think some problems will arise? At the end of the day, does this team have the personnel to cope with a player going down?
If this team doesn’t get home court, I think there’s no shot of them reaching the finals, let alone getting out of the first round.
Who they get in a trade will be crucial to how far this team can go. For me, I think they should target Marion and Mourning, even if just for a one-year rental.
October 17th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
They didn’t have home court against the Pistons two years ago, and last I checked that didn’t really hurt them so much.
They’re actually a lot more able to cope with losing LeBron for a few games now because they finally have another player (Williams), who can create his own shot.
The problem with trading for Marion is that they would have to take back another bad contract as well, and probably throw in Hickson and a draft pick and maybe more than that. The value in Szczerbiak is that he’s an expiring contract, but Marion is already a bigger expiring contract, so they’d need a lot more to make that deal.