Season Preview Primer

Detroit Pistons

Coach: Michael Curry
2007-08 Record: 59-23
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 62-20
Offensive Rating: 111.4 (6^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 102.9 (4^th)
Possessions per 48: 87.3 (30^th)
Min%: 87.7 (4^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

You know, I always underrate Chauncey Billups. I don’t know what it is, but there must be something overlookable about him. I rarely think of him as an elite player, but every year I look back and he put up spectacular numbers. He plays only 32 mpg on by far the league’s slowest team, so he doesn’t get enough credit for being the great scorer he is. He’s so effective because he’s very good from the two most efficient areas of the floor, the three point line and the free throw line. He takes a bunch of threes and makes 40% of them, and he also gets to the line at a very high rate (about 1 FTA for ever 2 FGA) and hits 92% from there. In addition to wasting very few possessions with missed shots, Billups also rarely turns the ball over for a player who handles the ball so much, and is a very effective, if not flashy, passer.

Rip Hamilton is one of my favorite players in the league to watch. Nobody is as good at running off screens, and very few players can spin and fire as quickly as he does. He’s like Reggie Miller, but with shorter range on his jumper. Midrange jumpers aren’t a real efficient shot for most guys, but Hamilton is so effective at getting open that they’re often like layups for him. Over the past few years, his offensive role has gotten a bit smaller, but he’s become more efficient as his shooting range has expanded and he’s also become a better distributor. He’s a great fit with Billups, and the two of them are really the driving force in Detroit’s offense.

Tayshaun Prince is one of the league’s best complimentary players. He’s mostly known as a defensive specialist, but he’s extremely versatile and effective on the offensive end too. He’s not a great shooter, but he’s pretty accurate with his feet set, and he has such great size and length that he very rarely gets his shot blocked. He also handles the ball extremely well, with a pretty good assist ratio for his position, and a miniscule turnover rate. Other than spotting up, the other thing that Prince excels at is backing down shorter defenders and using his size to get good looks at the rim. Defensively, of course, he’s fantastic, one of the league’s better perimeter defenders. He’s not a great help defender, which puts him a bit below a guy like Shane Battier, but he’s a shutdown one-on-one defender. He doesn’t gamble, and his ridiculous length allows him to contest every shot his opponent puts up.

It’ll be interesting to see who gets more minutes this year, Antonio McDyess or Jason Maxiell. McDyess has the experience, but at 34 he seems to be fading pretty quickly. Last year, he seemed to have noticeably lost a lot of his athleticism. In 06-07, 67% of his shots were jump shots. Last year, that number was 72%, and a much higher percentage of them were assisted. His offensive rebound, block and steal rates dropped, as did his rate of drawing fouls. Offensively, he’s basically become a jumpshooter who would hit midrange shots when others set him. He’s still a fairly good defender though because he’s strong enough to hold position against most players, and he rebounds extremely well.

Maxiell is a much more straightforward player. He’s severely undersized, but he has long arms, great strength, and is an explosive leaper. Offensively, the game plan is pretty simple: dunk everything. Nobody attacks the rim with as much reckless abandon as Maxiell. A massive 23% of his shot attempts were dunks, and he had one of the league’s highest rates of fouls drawn. Simple, but effective. Defensively, Maxiell is often at a huge height disadvantage, but he’s effective nonetheless because of his impressive athleticism. For example, witness this block on KG in the playoffs. You gotta have ups and timing if you’re blocking a Garnett fadeaway.

I’ll say this once. If you’re under the impression that Kwame Brown is going to make a big difference this year, then maybe basketball predictions aren’t your thing.

Rodney Stuckey gets the hype, but I think Amir Johnson is the better prospect. He’s a freakish athlete with tremendous length and leaping ability. He’s extremely turnover-prone, but that’s to be expected given his age and inexperience. Johnson has no perimeter game, but he’s devastatingly effective around the rim, finishing at a high rate and throwing down plenty of highlight reel dunks. More exciting, however, is his defensive potential. His block rate was absolutely ridiculous. For comparison, among players who qualified, Marcus Camby had the league’s highest block percentage at 7.3. Johnson posted an outrageous 8.5. Not only that, but he’s a fantastic rebounder as well. When he finally packs some meat onto that thin frame of his, watch out. If Kwame gets minutes at the expense of Johnson this year, it will be a travesty.

I think Stuckey is wildly overrated. Everyone seems convinced that he’s going to be a star, but I’m not seeing it. Nobody is this excited about Randy Foye, even though Foye is effectively the same style of player and has posted better numbers despite injury struggles. Stuckey is fine as a backup guard, especially since he can play either guard spot, but he’s a poor shooter, doesn’t distribute particularly well, and didn’t even finish at the rim well last year. The talk that the Pistons can trade Billups now because Stuckey can replace him? Ridiculous.

X-Factor: Rasheed Wallace – There is perhaps no player in the league more frustrating than Rasheed Wallace. He’s one of the few players in the league who is a legitimate post-up threat you can run your offense through, but he’s content most of the time to drift around the perimeter and shoot jumpers. Now, that’s not all bad because he’s certainly not a bad shooter, but he’s also not quite as good a shooter as he’d like to think he is. For a guy who is so devastating inside (shot 66% on close shots last year), he takes way too many jumpers. An almost unbelievable 85% of his shots last year were jumpers. Because of that, not only is he inefficient, but he’s also a terrible offensive rebounder for a guy his size. If the new coaching staff can get him to assert himself in the post more often, Detroit could be a much more deadly offensive team. Of course, he’s an excellent defender when motivated, and that’s really his biggest strength. He defends the pick and roll well, he’s an excellent one-on-one defender, and he protects the rim as well. There are very few players who have as big a defensive impact as he does.

Overview

For the last 3 seasons, the Pistons have been practically the exact same team. They’re consistently among the league’s best offensive and defensive teams. They own the Central Division and post great regular season records. They make their way to the conference finals, and then they lose, generally because they can’t contain the opponent’s best player. Last year, they had trouble keeping KG under wraps, and Boston won without sweating it out too much. The problem with the Pistons is that they’re a very solid team that preys on mistakes. That makes them excellent against bad teams, but not quite as effective in the Finals when the teams are better and the concentration level is higher.

Prediction

Just as I stated with Cleveland yesterday, I don’t actually think the Pistons are going to have the 6^th best record in the East this season. They’re a team that is built for the regular season, and they’ll likely finish 2^nd or 3^rd when all is said and done. However, I don’t think this team has a chance to win the title. They don’t have any one offensive player who they can go to when they absolutely must have a basket, and their undersized center rotation hurts them against teams with legitimate post threats. Sorry, I don’t see Stuckey and Brown changing that. If they make a move, like Dumars has been hinting they will, then things might get interesting, but as currently constructed, I don’t think anyone really fears this team in the playoffs.

6^th in the East – The Walking Dead

xphoenix87 is a BallerBlogger Contributing Writer. He thinks he could beat LeBron in H-O-R-S-E. He’s also writing season previews for all 30 NBA teams. Tomorrow is Indiana, so be sure to check back in for that.