Season Preview Primer

Denver Nuggets

Coach: George Karl
2007-08 Record: 50-32
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 51-31
Offensive Rating: 110 (11^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 106.3 (10^th)
Possessions per 48: 99.7 (1^st)
Min%: 72.5 (22^nd)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but somebody has to say it. Carmelo Anthony is overrated. That’s not to say that he’s not a good player, but at this point he’s clearly the fourth best player from the heralded 2003 draft (behind Bosh, Wade and James of course). He’s one of the league’s most potent scorers, but brings remarkably little to the table aside from that. He’s a very undisciplined player, and really only manages to be efficient offensively due to his prodigious natural gifts. He’s turnover-prone and has become increasingly so in the last few years, and he’s not very good at setting up his teammates. He still manages to be effective despite this, though not nearly on the same level as the league’s elite stars. What’s really damning is his complete and total lack of defensive commitment. He’s not only a bad defender, but he leaks out in transition all the time. That’s inexcusable for a guy who should be one of the league’s premier players. After three straight years where he has made very few strides in his game, it’s looking more and more like Anthony isn’t going to be much more than a scorer. While it’s great to be able to put points on the board, you have to be able to contribute in other ways if you’re going to lead a team to a title, and Anthony isn’t doing that.

The Nuggets made a big gamble a few years ago when they traded for Allen Iverson. Could he take a smaller role to coexist with Carmelo Anthony? Could he be more distributor than scorer? Well, things haven’t worked out so well for the Nuggets, losing in the first round two years in a row, but you can’t blame Iverson. Last year, at age 32, he had the most efficient season of his career. Iverson has long been the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer, but last year he increased his shooting percentages, slightly increased his assist rate, and most notably lowered his turnovers significantly. Iverson’s biggest strength is his ability to get to the line. He draws fouls at a prodigious rate because he can get into the lane at will, and he’s extremely good at drawing contact. While he takes some truly ridiculous shots, he also makes a lot of them, and when they’re falling he’s all but unguardable (witness his 49 in 3 quarters against LA last year, when he made Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar look like JV players). Defensively, he’s actually not bad when he buckles down and gives a good effort. His quickness and length really help here. However, he rarely actually gives any effort beyond gambling for steals, and bigger guards can shoot over top of him or beat him up in the post.

J.R. Smith is a fantastic talent, and a lot of people absolutely love his per-minute numbers, but I’m not quite sold on him. There’s a reason he only played 20 minutes a game last year. Despite his prodigious scoring talent, Smith still makes an amazing amount of bone-headed plays, and finds himself constantly in George Karl’s doghouse. He tends to be very streaky, either showing early on that he’s not gonna do much, and getting glued to the bench, or lighting it up and playing strong minutes. Aside from his inconsistency, Smith is also an absolutely terrible defender. Not that he isn’t capable, he’s a great athlete with great size for the position. No, he just doesn’t care on that end, doesn’t even try. If he wants to be more than an erratic scorer off the bench, Smith is going to have to become a much smarter and more fundamentally sound player.

Anthony Carter had value for the Nuggets last year because he plays solid defense and he had a career year offensively. They shouldn’t expect him to shoot nearly as well this year as he did last year, those numbers just scream “fluke” (23.8% 3FG career, 34.9% last year). Now, Chucky Atkins is coming back after being injured most of last year, and the Nuggets signed him last year to give them a shooter. It’ll be interesting to see what gets more minutes, the defense of Carter or the shooting of Atkins. Either way, the Nuggets point guard situation is pretty bad when either of them is on the floor (Iverson usually plays PG when Smith is in the game).

Kenyon Martin has been both overrated and underrated by the general public, if that makes any sense. His offensive skill has always been vastly overrated. Even in his prime with Jason Kidd setting him up, Martin was a mediocre to below average offensive player. His only real offensive skill is to dunk the ball, and that’s not really gonna get you anywhere. However, he’s one of the most underrated defensive players in the league, and was a huge reason Denver’s defense was better than anyone thought last year. While his block rates have fallen a bit post-surgery, he can still be a fairly effective shotblocker. That’s not where his real value lies though. He’s a very tough and very versatile one-on-one defender. Because of his great quickness, he can D up all over the floor, and he’s strong enough to be a very tough post defender. Like the rest of the Nuggets, he’s excellent for his position at forcing turnovers, one of the best at tipping the ball away from guys when they try to post him up. He managed to play 71 games last year, which is a good sign for them. He has to play at least that many for Denver to have any shot at the playoffs this year.

The backup post players for this team are terrible. You’d think that backing up two injury-prone starters would be a priority, but apparently not. When Nene or Martin are on the bench the only options are Steven Hunter, Chris Anderson and, recently signed, the artist formerly known as Juwan Howard. If you were a Nuggets fan, would you be comfortable with that arrangement? (If you are a Nuggets fan, well…um…that Iverson guy sure is fun to watch, isn’t he?)

X-Factor: Nene – He has to stay healthy because, well I just told you who their backup big men are, didn’t I? Look, I love to cheer for a guy coming back from testicular cancer (which is one of those things that you would never wish on anyone). However, I have to be realistic here. The guy has had injury history, and he’s also had a history of conditioning problems. That does not bode well for a guy who just missed an entire season. When healthy and in shape he’s one of the few guys who is big enough to defend the league’s strongest centers and is also quick enough to effectively defend the pick-and-roll. Though he’s still a bit undisciplined, that makes him a strong defensive presence, and along with Martin gives the Nuggets one of the league’s most versatile defensive frontcourts.

Overview

Last year was a season of frustration for the Nuggets…again. This team, which seems to just ooze talent, has suffered first round playoff defeats for five straight years. Finally, the owner said enough is enough and the team jettisoned Marcus Camby for basically nothing to cut costs. If any team can claim bad luck over the last few years, it would be the Nuggets. The perennial injury problems with Kenyon Martin, and when he’s finally healthy last year, Nene and Chucky Atkins, two expected starters, went down for almost the whole season. Despite that, they still won 50 games, but in the strongest conference in recent memory, that was only good for the 8^th seed and a first round beating by the Lakers. Contrary to popular opinion, the Nuggets last year were actually a very balanced team offensively and defensively, ranking 11^th and 10^th respectively (a great example of how important it is to consider pace).

Prediction

Sorry Nuggets fans, but I’m not seeing it. Despite the team’s high defensive rating last year, they depended heavily on Camby to erase mistakes made on the perimeter, and none of their current big men are going to fill that void. That’s even if they stay healthy. If Nene and Martin can’t both play at least 65-70 games, there’s no way this team even sniffs the playoffs. I think there’s a very good chance that Denver finds themselves out of the race by midseason, and they’ll be trying to find a taker for Iverson (though they may just want to hang on to his massive expiring contract). If I were George Karl, I’d start updating my resume, cause I doubt he’ll have his job after this year. The talent is probably there for a playoff berth, but the chances for “unmitigated disaster” are a whole lot higher.

10th in the West – The Drop-Off

xphoenix87 is a Contributing Writer for BallerBlogger.com. He’s like a miniature Buddha, covered in hair. He’s writing season previews for all 30 NBA teams. Minnesota is tomorrow, check it out.