Season Preview Primer

Minnesota Timberwolves

Coach: Randy Wittman
2007-08 Record: 22-60
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 23-59
Offensive Rating: 103.8 (27^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 111.2 (27^th)
Possessions per 48: 91.9 (13^th)
Min%: 74.1 (20^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

I think Al Jefferson is in line for his first All-Star selection this year, mainly because All-Star selections are based almost entirely on offense and coaches will ignore his sieve-like defense (more on that later). Offensively, Jefferson is a beast, and he’s getting better. He took a bit leap in usage rate last year, becoming the main option on a team mostly devoid of other offensive options, but he stayed just as efficient as he was the year before. He barely ever goes to his right hand, but it doesn’t matter most of the time. He’s got a devastating right hand hook shot that he can get off against anybody, and he’s very good at using up-and-under fakes to get free for shots. He’s also takes very good care of the ball. His turnover rate was extremely low for a frontcourt player, especially one who is as young as Jefferson and who takes on such a large load. Now, about that defense… Jefferson is not a good defender. In fact, he’s very, very, very bad at defense. Now, I’m not a huge proponent of on-off statistics, but this number absolutely floored me. The Wolves allowed 12.1 points per hundred possessions MORE while Jefferson was on the floor. That’s an immense number. How big is that number? Among qualifying players, Jefferson’s mark was dead last, by a staggering 3.3 over the 2^nd worst player (Kevin Durant). Now, I don’t think Jefferson is quite as bad as that number shows, but he’s certainly not good. The only real positive he brings is that he rebounds at a very high rate. He’s undersized for a center, and just doesn’t have the quickness to help weakside or to defend the pick-and-roll adequately.

I really like Kevin Love as a player, but for the reasons mentioned above, I don’t think he’s a good fit in Minnesota. Jefferson is a terrible defender, and he may end up being mediocre at best. Love is also never going to be a dominant defender. He can be a solid post defender who will hold position and rebound well, but he’s never going to be an intimidating shotblocker. I firmly believe that good defenses are built on good defensive big men, and Minnesota isn’t going to have that. Love and Jefferson both need to be paired with an athletic big man who can block shots.

Rashad McCants has never met a shot he didn’t like. That’s not always a bad thing though, since he can absolutely shoot the lights out. However, he’s extremely one-dimensional. Almost 80% of his shots were jumpers, and he rarely gets to the free throw line. He’s also very turnover-prone for a guy who doesn’t drive the lane all that often. Defensively, he has the tools, but he just doesn’t give any effort (I feel like I say that a lot). If he’s going to become more than a sixth man, McCants is going to have to broaden his game.

The Wolves are actually loaded with really good role players who could play key roles on contending teams. Guys like Craig Smith, Ryan Gomes and Mike Miller. Of course, Minnesota isn’t anywhere close to being a contender, so they’re not so helpful. I particularly like Smith, who I’ve followed since he played for Boston College. A lot of people don’t realize how good he is, but he finishes fantastically around the rim despite being undersized. He has really long arms and is pound-for-pound one of the strongest guys in the league, which allows him to bull his way to good lloks around the rim and also draw fouls at a high rate.

You know who is not so good? Sebastian Telfair is not so good.

I’m not sure what to think about Randy Foye. I think he certainly has the talent to be an NBA starter. However, he’s stuck between the two guard positions. He really fits best as a combo guard coming off the bench unless he becomes a better playmaker. He can play shooting guard, but he’s a bit undersized and struggles defensively. Because of his injuries, we haven’t seen a ton of Foye in his two years, so this season will be an important one to see what kind of role he can play for this team.

X-Factor: Corey Brewer – I believe we’ve touched on this team’s defensive shortcomings a bit. Of all the players on the roster, Brewer is the one who can be a real impact player on the defensive end. He’s hyper-athletic, has great size and length for the SF position, and is extremely active. He definitely needs to become more disciplined, but he has the potential to eventually be a player who can play lockdown defense and cause havoc all over the floor by blocking shots and getting in passing lanes. Offensively, there’s significantly less going on. Brewer is rail-thin, and doesn’t finish well at all in the paint since he can’t finish through contact. That, combined with his inconsistent jumper and unreliable handle makes him pretty ineffective on the offensive end. The good news is that he does very well in transition, and should get more opportunities this year with Love triggering the break. Brewer needs to become at least serviceable offensively so that he can play enough minutes to make an impact defensively.

Overview

The post-KG era did not exactly start with a bang, but it did offer some glimpses of hope for the future. Most notably, the development of Jefferson was a big positive, and young guys like Foye, McCants and Smith showed some positive signs. They’re not going to make Minnesota fans forget the Big Ticket, but it helps take a bit of the sting out of watching your former franchise player go win a title somewhere else. Amazingly enough, Kevin McHale also got the better end of a trade this offseason. Of course, he did it by trading with Chris Wallace, which is kind of like beating up a guy in a wheelchair, but still. They improved their salary cap, got Love, and brought in a very solid piece in Mike Miller.

Prediction

The focus this season is going to be on the improvement of young players more than the win-loss record, but the Wolves should improve this year. The team doesn’t have a foundation in place that’s ever going to much, since they just don’t have the right personnel at the right positions (like the Love-Jefferson situation I described above), but what they do have is a lot of talent. This is a team that should be active in the trade market, this year and over the next few years. They should be improved offensively this year, and that should translate into increased trade value. For now, Minnesota can sit back and enjoy the fact that they’ve got an elite post scorer to build around.

14th in the West – Up and Coming

xphoenix87 is a Contributing Writer for BallerBlogger.com. He’s writing season previews for all 30 NBA teams. He’s demanding a 100% pay raise because of all the work. It’s still nothing, but it’s a whole lot more nothing. Anyway, Oklahoma City is tomorrow.