Season Preview Primer

Utah Jazz

Coach: Jerry Sloan
2007-08 Record: 54-28
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 59-23
Offensive Rating: 113.8 (1^st in the league)
Defensive Rating: 106.5 (12^th)
Possessions per 48: 93.2 (10^th)
Min%: 95.5 (1^st)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

That Deron Williams guy, he’s pretty good. He’s one of the best shooters in the game, from basically anywhere on the court. He shoots extremely well from three, from midrange, and he can finish around the rim. He has great size and shoots just as well off the dribble as he does from a standstill, making him a devastating pick-and-roll player. Williams also has excellent floor vision, though he can be a bit loose with his passing at times, resulting in a big higher turnover rating than you’d like to see, though still perfectly acceptable for a playmaker like Williams. He doesn’t have great athleticism or a great first step, so he’s not as much of a threat going one-on-one as he is in the flow of an offense. He really excels at the pick-and-roll, and has really established a connection with his big men (Carlos Boozer in particular) and where they like to receive the ball. With his size and shooting ability, Williams should age well and remain one of the game’s best point guards for the next decade.

I like Carlos Boozer, but not nearly as much as most people. He’s very good, but he’s not an elite power forward. He scores effectively in the post because he uses his body well and has great touch with either hand around the rim. In fact, maybe the most impressive thing about Boozer’s game is that his left hand is every bit as good as his right. He’s a very efficient scorer, though he wasn’t as good last year as he was the previous year. One way he can really improve his offensive game is to work on drawing contact. He had a terrible free throw rate for such a prolific scorer. Boozer is also a fantastic rebounder, especially for a guy without great size. He probably boxes out better than any other player in the game, and he has great hands, once he gets his hands on the ball he’s going to pull it in. Defensively, he’s mediocre at best. He rebounds well, but that’s about it. He commits too many fouls and he’s not a shotblocking presence.

I think Utah needs to replace Mehmet Okur. He’s a great offensive weapon for their system, since he can spread the floor or hit jumpers off the pick-and-pop, but he’s a non-entity defensively. He’s a mediocre rebounder, he doesn’t block shots, he doesn’t move his feet well enough to hedge picks, and he doesn’t force people off the blocks. As far as I’m concerned, Utah isn’t going to win a title unless they have a post player who can play defense, and Okur can’t.

Kyle Korver presents a similar dilemma, only it’s easier to hide his defensive shortcomings. Korver is a guy who knows where his bread is buttered. He’s a terrific three-point shooter and not much else, so he took 54% of his shots from behind the arc. He’s the perfect weapon on the perimeter for Utah because he spreads the floor and opens up more driving lanes for Williams. You absolutely can’t leave Korver because Williams will find him if he’s open, and he’s automatic if he gets a clean look. He isn’t going to stop anyone defensively, but you can live with that against a lot of teams since you can put him on the opposing team’s weakest player.

Ronnie Brewer had a monster year last year that almost no one noticed. His huge improvement came mainly from an improved jumpshot. Though he didn’t shoot well from downtown, his midrange jumper became much more accurate. His rookie season he shot under 30% on jumpers, last year he was over 40%. That made a big difference as teams had to actually respect him from outside, which opened up a lot of opportunities to get to the rim. Brewer’s best asset offensively is how well he finishes around the rim. He’s an explosive athlete with great size, and he’s able to finish around or over top of most defenders (he was 9^th in the league in dunks last year). He gets most of those opportunities at the rim via cuts to the basket, transition run-outs, or offensive rebounds. Now that he has a respectable jumper, he’s another perfect offensive piece for this Utah squad since he’s so active off the ball. Of course, Defense is Brewer’s calling card, and he’s very close to being an elite perimeter defender. His combination of size and athleticism, as well as his quick hands, make him a nightmare of a matchup. He had the second highest rate of steals in the league, and for the most part he did it without a lot of gambling. Brewer also managed to play great defense without fouling, something that the rest of the Jazz certainly didn’t do.

Paul Millsap is, in a lot of ways, a microcosm of the entire Jazz team. He rebounds extremely well, particularly on the offensive end. He shoots a high percentage from the field, he draws a ton of fouls, and he fouls like a madman. He’s a very good player off the bench, but he’s never going to be much more than a 20 minutes a game reserve unless his foul rate decreases significantly. He’s certainly a great value for a guy who makes less than $1 mil a year though.

People were really high on Kyrylo Fesenko last season because of his great physical attributes and some strong numbers he put up in the D-League. Then he showed up out of shape and lazy for Utah’s Summer league games, and people weren’t so enthusiastic. Fesenko is an interesting case as he certainly has the size, strength and athleticism to eventually be the interior defender the Jazz so desperately need. However, he’s still incredibly raw offensively, and he’s never going to make it in the league if he doesn’t keep up his conditioning and effort level. Now, he’ll have to beat out first round pick Kosta Koufos if he wants to find any minutes in the Utah frontcourt.

X-Factor: Andrei Kirilenko – Kirilenko has taken a lot of criticism over the last few years, some of it deserved and a lot of it unwarranted. He really made an effort last year to improve his jumper and become a better complimentary player, and it showed in a huge upswing in efficiency. Here’s the bottom line though. If the Jazz want to win a title, they need to get Kirilenko back to being a dominant defensive force. He’s still a very good defender, but AK-47 doesn’t crash the boards or block shots like he used to. This is a guy who led the NBA in block rate 4 years ago and should be entering his prime. Utah isn’t going to have any trouble scoring, but if they want to win a title they have to improve defensively, and to do that they need the old Kirilenko back.

Overview

By all accounts, the Jazz were very, very good last year. They actually had the 4^th best point differential in the league, which projected them to win 5 more games than they really did. They were the league’s best offensive team, especially after the midseason trade for Korver, and they were all but unbeatable at home. Utah did have one killer flaw that really came back to bite them in the playoffs. They fouled at an extraordinarily high rate. I mean, not only did they send opponents to the line more than any other team in the league, they did so by a massive margin. Against LA, that meant they sent Kobe to the line enough that he practically set up shop there.  With their strong season last year and a young core in place, the Jazz made basically no moves over the offseason and bring back a staggering 95% of their minutes played from last year.

Prediction

I’m conflicted over the Jazz. On one hand, everything points to the Jazz being a legitimate contender. They were the second best regular season team in the West last year (by Pythagorean Win%), every important player is young, and they bring back all of their roster. They’re solid, they’re deep, and they’re built to withstand the long haul of the regular season. There’s a great chance they end up with a top 3 record in the West, and who wants to play them if they’ve got home court advantage? On the other hand though, they aren’t a good defensive team. They foul far too often, and they have no one who is an intimidator at the rim. While Kirilenko and Brewer give them two strong rim defenders, their post defense is sorely lacking. I just can’t stop thinking that Utah is basically the same team we’ve seen from Phoenix for the last four years. If you can’t defend the post, I don’t see you beating teams like San Antonio, LA or Houston.

5th in the West -The Big Budget Movie

xphoenix87 is a Contributing Writer for BallerBlogger.com. He’s writing season previews for all 30 NBA teams. He has nothing witty to say today. Just move along, nothing to see here. Check back tomorrow for Atlanta’s preview.