Season Preview Primer

Atlanta Hawks

Coach: Mike Woodson
2007-08 Record: 37-45
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 36-46
Offensive Rating: 106.9 (16^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 108.9 (18^th)
Possessions per 48: 91.1 (18^th)
Min%: 73.4 (21^st)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

Mike Bibby is definitely on the downside of his career. His effectiveness has decreased each of the last few years, to the point that he was barely above-average offensively last season. There’s no reason to think that trend is going to end. The big problem is that he isn’t a threat to turn the corner and score in the paint anymore. Bibby took a staggering 89% of his shots from the perimeter (either threes or long twos) after coming to Atlanta. The inside shots he did take didn’t work out too well, he only shot 46% and had 20% of his shots blocked. Though he shot well from the perimeter, his one-dimensional game made him a whole lot easier to guard. He almost never got to the free throw line, and, surprisingly for a player who rarely drove the lane, his turnover rate went up significantly. Bibby isn’t going to bring much to the table defensively, so if he wants to be a productive starter, he needs to take on a smaller offensive role and become more of a shooting specialist to improve his efficiency.

Joe Johnson’s efficiency has stayed almost exactly the same over the last few years. Since Johnson is the only player on the roster who can be a go-to scorer, the Hawks either need him to take on that larger load, or he needs to become more efficient with the possessions he is using. Johnson is a very smooth player, and one of the game’s best shooters. He’s not terribly explosive, but he’s crafty and can shoot both catching off the curl or off the dribble. He kind of reminds me off a poor man’s Ray Allen, in that he can score 30 in the flow of the offense and you don’t notice it until you check the box score.

If we lived in a fair world, Al Horford probably would’ve won the Rookie of the Year award. Alas, life is not fair, and scoring gets much more acclaim than defense and rebounding. However, Horford can take comfort in the fact that he helped the Hawks barely edge out the Pacers to earn their first playoff berth in 9 years. While I’m not sure Horford’s ceiling is that high, he should be an excellent complimentary player in the post for years. He’s an excellent rebounder, and a very tough defender who will always give a good effort. Horford is a very coordinated athlete for a big man, if a little mechanical on the offensive end, and he has a lot of potential as someone who you can channel the offense through in the high post.

Marvin Williams finally started living up to his potential last year. He’s never going to make people forget he was drafted over Chris Paul and Deron Williams, but after two underwhelming seasons he was a quality contributor for the Hawks last year. Williams has always relied heavily on his midrange game and his consistent shooting stroke from that distance. Last year was the same story, but where Williams really improved was finishing around the rim and getting to the line. He took approximately the same number of shots around the rim last year and the previous year, but last year he made 8% more of those looks and he drew more fouls. Because of that, his efficiency skyrocketed and he became a legitimate scoring option. Williams has great size for his position and a very smooth game. He’s only 22 and still learning, and the next step to improving his game is a pretty obvious one: expanded shooting range. If Williams can add a consistent three-point shot to his arsenal, he has the potential to be a go-to scoring option.

Acie Law struggled a lot more than I thought he would last year. Point guards typically have a difficult time adjusting to the NBA, but what was surprising about Law was that he looked so tentative shooting the ball. A guy who had all the confidence in the world in college was passing up open shots last year. Law is much more of a scorer than a pure point guard, so he has to regain that swagger if he wants to have any kind of productive NBA career.

You could certainly do worse than Maurice Evans for $3.5 mil a year, considering that a similar player in James Posey went for the full midlevel exception. In Orlando, just under 50% of his shot attempts were threes, and he hit 40% of them. He’s a very good shooter, rarely turns the ball over, and is an excellent rebounder from the guard position. He’s also a solid, if unspectacular, defender. He should play a good chunk of minutes as he takes over for the Europe-bound Josh Childress.

X-Factor: Josh Smith – We’ve seen Smith unleash his prodigious athleticism to make a defensive impact, but the question remains as to whether or not he can harness that potential on the offensive end. Because of Atlanta’s glut of talent at the small forward position, Smith was basically forced into the power forward spot, and it’s a role that actually works better for him since his perimeter shot is so poor. He’s a tremendous athlete who finishes with great authority at the rim (11^th in the league in dunks last year). He rebounds well, draws a ton of fouls, rarely gets his shot blocked, and finishes very well (62%) on shots around the rim. Now, those things would tend to indicate a pretty efficient player, right? Well Smith’s main problem is that he has absolutely no concept of his limitations. Despite the fact that he’s an awful perimeter shooter (30.7% eFG on jumpers), Smith took almost half of his shots from outside last year. In addition to that, Smith also turned the ball over at a pretty high rate. Now, the potential certainly exists for Smith to be a real difference-maker on offense, but he has to realize what he can and can’t do, and adjust his shot-selection accordingly. Smith is already a dominant defensive player who opponents have to game plan for, but the Hawks need him to take that step on the offensive end if they want to become a team that matters in the East.

Overview

Any time you make the postseason for the first time in a decade, you have to consider it a successful season. The Hawks hovered around .500 the beginning of the year, struggled in the middle of the season, and were able to bring in Mike Bibby for pocket change to lead them in the stretch run. That let them edge out Indiana for the final playoff spot in the East, which is kind of like being the tallest midget in the room. Sure, they got there, but they still weren’t very good. Sadly, for all the positives last season brought, the offseason was a lot more like the Hawks we’ve all come to know and pity. While they watched the other Eastern Conference playoff teams load up with offseason acquisitions, Atlanta became the first real casualty of the European basketball boom, as Greek superpower Olympiacos stole sixth man extraordinaire Josh Childress away with a deal the team couldn’t afford to match. They were able to secure Josh Smith long term, and they still have a highly talented young core in place, but it’s tough to come out of this offseason feeling positive.

Prediction

I gotta be honest, I’m not feeling great about the Hawks’ chances this year. They made the playoffs with 37 wins last year, and I think the 8^th team in the East will have 40 or 41 wins this year. Atlanta could feasibly do that with enough improvement from their young core, especially Josh Smith. However, they’ve not only got to improve 4 wins, but they’ve also got to make up for the loss of Childress, who was as underrated as any player in the league last year, and one of Atlanta’s few consistent offensive threats. It’s certainly not out of the question that they repeat their playoff appearance, but it’ll require either the Hawks to be better than I expect, or the rest of the East to be worse.

10^th in the East – The Crapshoot

xphoenix87 is a Contributing Writer for BallerBlogger.com. He’s like John Hollinger only, you know, actually uses statistics correctly. He’s writing season previews for all 30 NBA teams. Check back in tomorrow for Charlotte’s preview.