Erick Blasco is a 21-year-old college student attending Brooklyn College on a full scholarship. He is majoring in Television/Radio and minoring in English with the hopes of someday becoming a professional basketball analyst.
The Western Conference’s Southwest Division is a monster, with three teams harboring realistic title aspirations, and a fourth an always capable regular season team. No division in sports matches the Southwest Division’s firepower.
1) New Orleans Hornets
An emerging powerhouse, the Hornets may be the best the West has to offer. Everyone knows about Chris Paul’s exploits—his supreme quickness, his spectacular right handed handle, his precision lob passes—but whereas CP3 gives the Hornets style, their interior defense gives them substance.
Tyson Chandler has developed into one of the best defensive big men in the league, while David West is simply a superb two-way player. Plus, they’re both sprightly and athletic, allowing them to not only start, but often finish, the Hornets’ fearsome fast break.
James Posey’s had a habit of following up successful seasons by showing up out of shape and not working as hard the year after. Plus he’s lost a half a step. If he shows up energized from the season opener, he’ll give the Hornets a defensive physicality and swagger that could rival Boston’s, Detroit’s, San Antonio’s, and Houston’s. Just as important, he’ll make the money shots when Peja Stojakovic waves his magic wand and disappears in the postseason.
Depth is also a major concern. Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely are career mediocrities. Does Julian Wright have the experience to refine his remarkable athletic traits into consistent production off the bench? Are Rasual Butler and Devin Brown good enough to provide quality minutes? Do the Hornets have the goods to acquire a veteran backup point guard once Mike James’ habit of force-feeding his own offense knocks him out of Byron Scott’s rotation?
How much Posey has left, and who the Hornets can pick up at the trade deadline will determine their fate.
2) San Antonio Spurs
Reports of San Antonio’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. Even last year, despite the usual chorus of “too old,” and “too slow,” the Spurs stayed the course and advanced to the Western Conference Finals despite their most dynamic playmaker playing on one foot..
Still, while the ship is strong and sturdy, and the captain and crew are wise, the hull is creaking and leaks are springing up.
While Tim Duncan remains the gold standard for NBA big men, and Tony Parker is impossible to keep out of the paint, the team’s role players are questionable.
Can Bruce Bowen fend off Father Time, or will he lose another step? Is Ime Udoka going to stop making so many mistakes, and start evolving into Bruce Bowen part two? Has Matt Bonner’s defense evolved enough for Gregg Popovich to trust him in big moments? Is Roger Mason Jr. capable of playing alert helpside defense, and making correct decisions on offense?
Here’s what we know about the Spurs:
Manu Ginobili will come back from ankle surgery in mid-December sparking the team through the January-February doldrums. The team prepares so well, and is so alert, that opposing offenses will still have trouble executing their favorite plays. Salim Stoudamire will bring more to the table than Damon Stoudamire did. The majority of San Antonio’s difficult road games take place after the month of January. And Tim Duncan always delivers his finest performances when the Spurs need them most.
Expect the Spurs to peak in the second half and travel deep into the postseason.
3) Houston Rockets
No team in the NBA walks such a fine line between possible disaster and potential glory.
If everything breaks right, the Rockets will have a number of potential championship features. Namely…
- A formidable defensive frontcourt anchored by Ron Artest, Shane Battier, and Yao Ming, with Artest and Battier forming the most physical forward tandem in the league.
- The best pure center in the league until Dwight Howard develops defensive recognition and low-post moves.
- With Artest able to create his own shot, Tracy McGrady won’t have to be counted on to create Houston ’s offense.
- A slew of hard working power forwards who get more out of their effort than out of their talent.
However, the potential plusses are mitigated by the potential minuses. To wit:
- The potential for chronic and/or serious injuries could wipe out most of Houston ’s offense. Tracy McGrady (back), and Yao Ming have each missed significant chunks of recent seasons, and Ron Artest has failed to play more than 70 games since 2004.
- If Artest’s insistence of forcing his hard-edged persona on his teammates isn’t universally accepted, the entire locker room might fracture, and the trust and confidence required to play even mediocre basketball will severely dissipate.
- In Artest and McGrady, the Rockets have two players who take a long time to make decisions and inhibit complicated offenses from running properly. Can they adapt to one another, and can Rick Adelman come up with an offense that integrates each star?
- The collection of power forwards play hard, but each is undersized, and only marginally athletic.
- Rafer Alston has demonstrated an inadequacy to defend bigger guards, to make tough decisions under pressure, and to shoot consistently from game to game.
- Can the backup point guard collection of Brent Barry, Luther Head, Steve Francis, Aaron Brooks, and D.J. Strawberry provide quality minutes? Due to Barry’s ability to add ball movement and three-point shooting to an offense, and Strawberry’s length and defensive toughness, they should be given the inside track to back up Alston.
Assuming Ron Artest plays nice and the team stays healthy, the Rockets have the talent and the toughness to leave their imprint on the Western Conference. Of course, haphazardly making those assumptions requires one to believe in the Easter Bunny, Santa Clause, the Tooth Fairy, etc, etc.
4) Dallas Mavericks
With the competition so vastly improved, the Mavericks are no longer title contenders—or even playoff locks.. Still, Rick Carlisle gives the Mavericks a final shot at making a run at a championship.
Avery Johnson’s isolation-oriented offense will be scrapped for a more uptempo, more cohesive attack. That will mean more off-ball movement, and more of Jason Kidd making decisions. However, does Kidd have anything left in the tank? He can’t penetrate like he used to, his post game has disappeared, and he still struggles with his shot. If Kidd has any success this season, it will come from his otherworldly court awareness making up for his decaying skill set.
Dirk Nowitzki showed heart for the first time in his career late last season—until he was punked by Tyson Chandler and David West in the first round of the playoffs. Is Dirk destined to flop around, avoid attacking the rim, fail to finish with contact, and metaphorically (and in last year’s case, literally) fail to respond when an opponent slaps him in the face?
Can Erick Dampier avoid the chronic foul trouble that leaves him bench-ridden far too often to be effective? Is Josh Howard ready to play mature basketball on the court, to say nothing of his irresponsible antics off the court? Will Carlisle give Dasagana Diop the playing time he deserves?
Of all the flaws the Mavs suffer from, the most profound one is a lack of competitive edge. A coach and a fading superstar can’t transform a lack of heart.
5) Memphis Grizzlies
Will the Grizzlies finish with a better or worse record than the Thunder? Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, and Mike Conley give the Grizzlies a stockpile of young talent. But Memphis’ big men are horrific. Marc Gasol is young and inexperienced, Darko Milicic is slow and stiff, Hakim Warrick is a toothpick, and Antoine Walker should’ve retired after collecting his 2006 championship ring. Marc Iavaroni hasn’t been able to convince Warrick and Milicic to be earnest role players—to be physically strong, to box out diligently, to set solid screens, and to defend—and the legit players on the roster have suffered because of it.
The Grizzlies’ roster is deprived of players who know or want to play acceptable halfcourt defense, except the misplaced Greg Buckner. Nary a player has been developed into an acceptable supporting cast member. There’s no structure to the offense, just isolations and ineffective screen/rolls. For the mercy of the Grizzlies, Marc Iavaroni needs to be fired and replaced with a teacher and a nurturer, unless Memphis wants to preside over a team permanently in basketball adolescence
