Breaking Down the NBA GM Survey

NBA.com released the results of their annual NBA GM survey yesterday. This year’s survey was the seventh addition, so before we take a look at this year’s results, let’s check the accuracy of some survey questions from seasons past. I’m unable to access the 2002-03 and 2003-04 questionaires so we’ll kick things off at the 04-05 mark.

GM Survey: 2004-05 Predictions

Which team will win NBA Finals 2005?

San Antonio Spurs 45.2%
Detroit Pistons 33.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves 9.5%
Indiana Pacers 7.1%
Miami Heat 4.8%

NBA Champion:  San Antonio Spurs

Who will win the 2004-05 MVP?

Shaquille O’Neal, Miami 57.1%
Tim Duncan, San Antonio 19.0%
Kevin Garnett, Minnesota 14.3%
Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 9.5%

MVP:  Steve Nash

Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?

Ron Artest, Indiana 38.1%
Ben Wallace, Detroit 33.3%
Tim Duncan, San Antonio 9.5%
Andrei Kirilenko, Utah 9.5%
Theo Ratliff, Portland 9.5%

DPOY:  Ben Wallace

Who will win the 2004-05 Rookie of the Year?

Emeka Okafor, Charlotte 42.9%
Ben Gordon, Chicago 23.8%
Dwight Howard, Orlando 23.8%
Josh Childress, Atlanta 4.8%
Devin Harris, Dallas 4.8%

ROY:  Emeka Okafor

Which rookie will be the best player in five years?

Dwight Howard, Orlando 70.0%
Shaun Livingston, L.A. Clippers 10.0%
Emeka Okafor, Charlotte 10.0%
Andres Nocioni, Chicago 5.0%
Sebastian Telfair, Portland 5.0%

Which rookie is most likely to be a “sleeper” success?

Josh Smith, Atlanta 15.8%
Luke Jackson, Cleveland 10.5%
Al Jefferson, Boston 10.5%
Shaun Livingston, L.A. Clippers 10.5%
J.R. Smith, New Orleans 10.5%
Others receiving votes: Tony Allen, Boston; Josh Childress, Atlanta; Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia; Kevin Martin, Sacramento; Jameer Nelson, Orlando; Sasha Vujacic, L.A. Lakers; Delonte West, Boston; Dorell Wright, Miami

Who is the best head coach in the NBA?

Larry Brown, Detroit 38.1%
Jerry Sloan, Utah 33.3%
Flip Saunders, Minnesota 9.5%
Others receiving votes: Rick Adelman, Sacramento; Hubie Brown, Memphis; Rick Carlisle, Indiana; Gregg Popovich, San Antonio

Which player would you want taking a shot with the game on the line?

Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 81.0%
Tim Duncan, San Antonio 4.8%
Allan Houston, New York 4.8%
Reggie Miller, Indiana 4.8%
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas 4.8%

If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?

Tim Duncan, San Antonio 47.6%
Kevin Garnett, Minnesota 28.6%
LeBron James, Cleveland 14.3%
Shaquille O’Neal, Miami 9.5%

GM Survey: 2005-06 Predictions

Which team will win NBA Finals 2006?

San Antonio Spurs 76.9%
Miami Heat 15.4%
Others receiving votes: Detroit, Minnesota

NBA Champion:  Miami Heat

Who will win the 2005-06 MVP?

Tim Duncan, San Antonio 58.3%
Shaquille O’Neal, Miami 16.7%
Others receiving votes: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers, Kevin Garnett, Minnesota, Tracy McGrady, Houston, Jermaine O’Neal, Indiana, Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix, Dwyane Wade, Miami

MVP:  Steve Nash

Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?

Ben Wallace, Detroit 32.0%
Ron Artest, Indiana 20.0%
Bruce Bowen, San Antonio 16.0%
Others receiving votes: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers, Tim Duncan, San Antonio, Andrei Kirilenko, Utah, Tayshaun Prince, Detroit

DPOY:  Ben Wallace

Who will win the 2005-06 Rookie of the Year?

Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee 40.0%
Chris Paul, New Orleans/Oklahoma City 36.0%
Deron Williams, Utah 12.0%
Others receiving votes: Rashad McCants, Minnesota, Nate Robinson, New York, Hakim Warrick, Memphis

ROY:  Chris Paul

Which rookie will be the best player in five years?

Marvin Williams, Atlanta 37.5%
Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee 16.7%
Gerald Green, Boston 12.5%
Chris Paul, New Orleans/Oklahoma City 8.3%
Others receiving votes: Monta Ellis, Golden State, Raymond Felton, Charlotte, Channing Frye, New York, Danny Granger, Indiana, Rashad McCants, Minnesota, Martell Webster, Portland

Which rookie is most likely to be a “sleeper” success?

Nate Robinson, New York 22.9%
Salim Stoudamire, Atlanta 14.6%
Francisco Garcia, Sacramento 12.5%
Danny Granger, Indiana 12.5%
Others receiving votes: Brandon Bass, New Orleans/Oklahoma City, Travis Diener, Orlando, Joey Graham, Toronto, Jarrett Jack, Portland, David Lee, New York, Sean May, Charlotte, Hakim Warrick, Memphis, Martell Webster, Portland

Who is the best head coach in the NBA?

Larry Brown, New York 33.3%
Gregg Popovich, San Antonio 25.0%
Phil Jackson, Los Angeles Lakers 12.5%
Jerry Sloan, Utah 12.5%
Others receiving votes: Bernie Bickerstaff, Charlotte, Rick Carlisle, Indiana, Mike D’Antoni, Phoenix, Scott Skiles, Chicago

Which player in the NBA would you want taking a shot with the game on the line?

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers 61.5%
Ray Allen, Seattle 15.4%
Others receiving votes: Chauncey Billups, Detroit, Sam Cassell, Los Angeles Clippers, Tim Duncan, San Antonio, Robert Horry, San Antonio, Paul Pierce, Boston

If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?

Tim Duncan, San Antonio 40.0%
LeBron James, Cleveland 36.0%
Shaquille O’Neal, Miami 8.0%
Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix 8.0%
Others receiving votes: Kevin Garnett, Minnesota, Dwyane Wade, Miami

GM Survey: 2006-07 Predictions

Which team will win NBA Finals 2007?

San Antonio Spurs 42.9%
Dallas Mavericks 28.6%
Miami Heat 14.3%
Others receiving votes: Minnesota, Phoenix, Orlando

NBA Champion:  San Antonio Spurs

Who will win the 2006-07 MVP?

LeBron James, Cleveland 39.3%
Dwyane Wade, Miami 28.6%
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas 17.9%
Others receiving votes: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Tim Duncan, San Antonio, Kevin Garnett, Minnesota

MVP:  Dirk Nowitzki

Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?

Ben Wallace, Chicago 32.1%
Ron Artest, Sacramento 28.6%
Bruce Bowen, San Antonio 25.0%
Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 10.7%
Alonzo Mourning, Miami 3.6%

DPOY: Marcus Camby

Who will win the 2006-07 Rookie of the Year?

Brandon Roy, Portland 44.4%
Adam Morrison, Charlotte 25.9%
Randy Foye, Minnesota 14.8%
Others receiving votes: Andrea Bargnani, Toronto, Shelden Williams, Atlanta

ROY:  Brandon Roy

Which rookie will be the best player in five years?

Andrea Bargnani, Toronto 22.2%
Tyrus Thomas, Chicago 22.2%
Randy Foye, Minnesota 18.5%
Brandon Roy, Portland 11.1%
Others receiving votes: LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland, Rudy Gay, Memphis, Adam Morrison, Charlotte, Shelden Williams, Atlanta

Which rookie is most likely to be a “sleeper” success?

Rajon Rondo, Boston 25.0%
Thabo Sefolosha, Chicago 14.3%
Randy Foye, Minnesota 10.7%
Others receiving votes: Maurice Ager, Dallas, Hilton Armstrong, New Orleans/Oklahoma City, Ronnie Brewer, Utah, Rodney Carney, Philadelphia, Yakhouba Diawara, Denver, Jordan Farmar, L.A. Lakers, Jorge Garbajosa, Toronto, Rudy Gay, Memphis, Steve Novak, Houston, Brandon Roy, Portland, Mouhamed Sene, Seattle, Craig Smith, Minnesota

Who is the best head coach in the NBA?

Pat Riley, Miami 44.4%
Gregg Popovich, San Antonio 25.9%
Phil Jackson, L.A. Lakers 18.5%
Others receiving votes: Scott Skiles, Chicago, Jerry Sloan, Utah

Which player in the NBA would you want taking a shot with the game on the line?

Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 74.1%
Dwyane Wade, Miami 14.8%
Others receiving votes: Carmelo Anthony, Denver, Gilbert Arenas, Washington, Chauncey Billups, Detroit

If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?

LeBron James, Cleveland 71.4%
Dwyane Wade, Miami 10.7%
Others receiving votes: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Tim Duncan, San Antonio, Dwight Howard, Orlando

GM Survey: 2007-08 Predictions

Which team will win NBA Finals 2008?

1. San Antonio Spurs 37.0%
2. Phoenix Suns 25.9%
3. Dallas Mavericks 14.8%
4. Detroit Pistons 7.4%
Others receiving votes: Boston, Houston, Miami, Orlando

NBA Champion:  Boston Celtics

Who will win the 2007-08 MVP?

1. LeBron James, Cleveland 29.6%
2. Tim Duncan, San Antonio 22.2%
3. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 18.5%
4. Steve Nash, Phoenix 11.1%
5. Kevin Garnett, Boston 7.4%
Dwyane Wade, Miami 7.4%
7. Yao Ming, Houston 3.7%

MVP:  Kobe Bryant

Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?

1. Bruce Bowen, San Antonio 38.5%
2. Tim Duncan, San Antonio 28.8%
3. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 9.6%
4. Ben Wallace, Chicago 7.7%
Others receiving votes: Ron Artest, Sacramento: Raja Bell, Phoenix; Marcus Camby, Denver; Dikembe Mutombo, Houston

DPOY: Kevin Garnett

Who will win the 2007-08 Rookie of the Year?

1. Kevin Durant, Seattle 92.6%
2. Al Horford, Atlanta 3.7%
Rodney Stuckey, Detroit 3.7%

ROY:  Kevin Durant

Which rookie will be the best player in five years?

1. Kevin Durant, Seattle 74.1%
2. Greg Oden, Portland 22.2%
3. Rodney Stuckey, Detroit 3.7%

Which rookie is most likely to be a “sleeper” success?

1. Rodney Stuckey, Detroit 29.6%
2. Marco Belinelli, Golden State 18.5%
3. Jared Dudley, Charlotte 11.1%
4. Gabe Pruitt, Boston 7.4%
Luis Scola, Houston 7.4%
Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers 7.4%
Others receiving votes: Aaron Brooks, Houston; Daequan Cook, Miami; Javaris Crittenton, L.A. Lakers; Kyrylo Fesenko, Utah; D.J. Strawberry, Phoenix

Who is the best head coach in the NBA?

1. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio 73.1%
2. Jerry Sloan, Utah 15.4%
Others receiving votes: Mike D’Antoni, Phoenix; Phil Jackson, L.A. Lakers; Scott Skiles, Chicago

Which player in the NBA would you want taking a shot with the game on the line?

1. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 88.5%
2. Carmelo Anthony, Denver 3.8%
Tim Duncan, San Antonio 3.8%
Steve Nash, Phoenix 3.8%

If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?

1. LeBron James, Cleveland 59.3%
2. Dwight Howard, Orlando 25.9%
3. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 11.1%
Tim Duncan, San Antonio 11.1%
5. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas 3.7%

GM Survey: 2008-09 Predictions

Which team will win NBA Finals 2009?

1. L.A. Lakers — 46.2%
2. Boston — 19.2%
3. New Orleans — 11.5%
4. Houston — 7.7%
San Antonio — 7.7%
Others receiving votes: Detroit, Orlando

Who will win the 2008-09 MVP?

1. LeBron James – 55.6%
2. Kobe Bryant — 37.0%
3. Chris Paul — 7.4%

Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?

1. Kevin Garnett — 44.4%
2. Ron Artest — 22.2%
3. Kobe Bryant — 11.1%
4. Bruce Bowen — 7.4%
Tim Duncan — 7.4%
Others receiving votes: Marcus Camby, Tyson Chandler

Who will win the 2008-09 Rookie of the Year?

1. Michael Beasley — 48.1%
2. Greg Oden — 29.6%
3. O.J. Mayo — 11.1%
Others receiving votes: Kevin Love, Anthony Randolph, Russell Westbrook

Which rookie will be the best player in five years?

1. Greg Oden — 30.8%
2. Michael Beasley — 23.1%
Derrick Rose — 23.1%
4. Anthony Randolph — 7.7%
Russell Westbrook — 7.7%
Others receiving votes: Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo

Which rookie is most likely to be a “sleeper” success?

1. J.J. Hickson — 20.0%
2. Courtney Lee — 12.0%
Robin Lopez — 12.0%
4. Mario Chalmers — 8.0%
Rudy Fernandez — 8.0%
Anthony Randolph — 8.0%
Others receiving votes: Ryan Anderson, Darrell Arthur, Jerryd Bayless, Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, Brandon Rush, Marreese Speights

Who is the best head coach in the NBA?

1. Gregg Popovich — 53.8%
2. Phil Jackson — 23.1%
3. Jerry Sloan — 7.7%
Others receiving votes: Rick Adelman, Rick Carlisle, Nate McMillan, Stan Van Gundy

Which player in the NBA would you want taking a shot with the game on the line?

1. Kobe Bryant — 88.9%
Others receiving votes: Gilbert Arenas, LeBron James, Paul Pierce

If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?

1. LeBron James — 66.7%
2. Kobe Bryant — 18.5%
3. Dwight Howard — 11.1%
4. Chris Paul – 3.7%

There are a number of interesting questions so I recommend clicking the links and browsing through the surveys.

A few thoughts:

• The San Antonio Spurs have been the safe pick as NBA champions the past few seasons. The Lakers appear to be the safe pick this year. I agree with that assessment. But I think the Rockets have better championship odds than the Hornets.
• Kobe Bryant’s 5-pete as the player GM’s would want taking a shot with the game on the line was set in stone after his gold medal performance.
• I don’t know if he should be considered a “sleeper” since he’s received as much hype as any of this year’s rookies, but Rudy Fernandez is my pick in that category. I like the Manu Ginobili comparisons. Manu is a better scorer. Rudy is a better passer, but I see the same fearlessness in both players. I only hope that Rudy can play as selflessly as Manu has and accept a reserve role in Portland.
• Michael Beasley has loads of potential, but his potential isn’t remotely close to Greg Oden’s. Beasley is a pure scorer. The kid can put the ball in the hole in every way imaginable. Oden is a once-in-a-generation big man and the NBA has always been — and will always be — a big man’s game.
• The best defensive player in the NBA vote appears to rise and fall with the Defensive Player of the Year from the season prior. But I think it’s very telling that Marcus Camby failed to grab a significant percentage of the vote before and after his DPOY season.
• Artest wasn’t named to an 07-08 All-NBA Defensive team. And yet Ron-Ron came in second behind Kevin Garnett with 22.2% of the best defensive player vote this season. I don’t know where I’m going with this other than to point out the discrepancy and state that I agree with the majority vote. KG was the best defender in the NBA last season. Artest is my pick as DPOY this season.
• Luke Jackson received 10.5% of the “rookie sleeper” vote in 04-05. Wow. Although that’s not quite as bad as Sebastian Telfair receiving 5.0% of the “Which rookie will be the best player in five years” vote that same season.
• I’d love to see the individual votes from the franchise cornerstone question. If I were starting a franchise and could sign any player in the NBA, my pick would be LeBron James. I’m shocked that that vote wasn’t unanimous. Kobe Bryant is 30 years old. Dwight Howard is one-dimensional. I’m talking to you, Kevin McHale.
• General Managers have picked James as the MVP the past three seasons. Shaquille O’Neal was my pick in 04-05, Kobe Bryant was my pick in 05-06, Steve Nash would have received my vote in 06-07, and Bryant was my pick again in 07-08. James is my pick this season. If history is any indication, LeBron James is poised for a truly transcendent season.