Season Preview Primer

Miami Heat

Coach: Erik Spoelstra
2007-08 Record: 15-67
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 18-64
Offensive Rating: 100.5 (29^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 110 (26^th)
Possessions per 48: 90.2 (22^nd)
Min%: 47.8 (28^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

I’m not nearly as high on Dwayne Wade as everyone else is. Yes, he looked fantastic at the Olympics, but that’s a far cry from being productive and staying healthy over the course of an 82-game season. Wade makes a living in the paint and at the free throw line, and consequently takes body blow after body blow in every game he plays. We’ve seen this before in Allen Iverson, who as gotten drilled as much as any player over the last decade, but Iverson is such a freakish athlete and fiery competitor that he rarely missed games despite all that damage. I don’t think Wade can do that. He’s either going to miss 15-20 games a season, or he’s going to have to drastically alter his game. When he’s healthy, Wade is one of the top five talents in the game, but I have my doubts about how often he’s going to be healthy.

This team’s roster is so imbalanced right now, it’s almost comical. They have 3 legitimate NBA starter-caliber players (Wade, Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley), and three decent reserve-caliber players (Udonis Haslem, Dorell Wright and James Jones). As you’ll note, five of those six are forwards, and there’s not a point guard or center to be found. The Heat may be best-off starting Haslem, Marion and Beasley together alongside Wade, and hoping to get some semblance of productivity from their point guard poo-poo platter. After all, Marion often was called on to defend centers in Phoenix, and Beasley is certainly versatile enough to play small forward. Since their other option at center is Mark Blount, I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the route they took.

Here’s a question for you. Has there ever been a worse rebounding seven-footer than Mark Blount? The guy has a career rebound percentage of 11.7. To put that in perspective, it’s lower than Eddy Curry’s career mark. It’s substantially lower than renowned stiff Shawn Bradley’s career mark. It’s less than notorious softies Rasheed Wallace and Antoine Walker. It boggles the mind that a guy who can’t score, can’t rebound, and is only a passable defender is now entering his 9^th season in the league and is making $7 mil a year.

I like Udonis Haslem, I really do. It takes a lot of work to go from undrafted free agent to starter on a championship team. He’s an undersized power forward who nonetheless manages to be an effective defender and rebounder. However, he’s not really an impact player, he’s a borderline-starter solid role player. Haslem is at his best playing a Kurt Thomas/Antonio McDyess-type role, where he’s only asked to play tough defense and hit open midrange jumpers for a contending team. The Heat aren’t a contending team, and with plenty of other forwards on the roster, there’s a pretty good chance Miami tries to move Haslem and his $7 mil a year salary.

Despite only playing 44 games, Dorell Wright had a breakout year last year. His efficiency jumped drastically because of two things, he cut his turnovers and he improved his midrange jumper. Now, while he probably won’t shoot quite as well from midrange as he did last year, cutting the turnovers is a definitely a positive sign for a young player. Wright also has all the tools to be a solid defender. He has great size and athleticism, and he’s already one of the best rebounding wings in the game (Wright, in fact, outrebounded Blount last year).

I like Shawn Marion, but he’s not nearly as good as he thinks he is. He makes a great third option who can defend multiple positions, but you don’t want him trying to create his own shot with any regularity. Offensively, Marion has to have somewhat setting him up, because he’s inefficient when he’s trying to go it on his own. In his post-Nash time in Miami last year, Marion’s shooting percentage dropped 10 points and his turnovers doubled, leading to a massive 20 point drop in offensive rating. While playing alongside a healthy Wade will almost certainly help, it’s worrying that The Matrix seemed more like The Matrix Unloaded last year (see how I did that? It’s both a play on words and a reference to a bad sequel. They don’t teach you that kind of cleverness in English class kids). If Marion wants to earn himself a big contract next offseason, he’s going to have to play inside his limits and show teams he’s still the versatile, super role-player he was in Phoenix.

X-Factor: Michael Beasley – I typically don’t expect a lot from rookies, but as you may have noticed, Beasley isn’t your typical rookie. As versatile a scoring threat as you’re likely to find in a rookie, and stuck on a team with precious few offensive options, Beasley should average close to 20 a game this year. The question is, how efficient will Beasley be while doing it? Kevin Durant was able to throw in 20 a game, but he wasn’t exactly the picture of efficiency. Beasley is in a bit better situation than Durant was though. Playing with Wade and Marion should allow him room to operate, and since Beasley is more of a post scorer, he’ll typically be taking higher percentage shots. His fantastic court sense, great touch around the rim, and rebounding ability give him a great chance to come away with the Rookie of the Year award. The big issue with Beasley is whether or not he’s going to give a consistent effort over a grueling 82-game season, and whether he’ll give the team anything on the defensive end.

Overview

There is precious little to take from last season. It became obvious early in the year that Miami wasn’t going to be in playoff contention, and everything went down hill from there. Wade was never really fully healthy to begin the year, and they shut him down after 51 games to recover. Shaq continued his steep decline, so they shipped him off for Marion, who then missed 15 of the remaining 34 games. Alonzo Mourning went down with a probably career-ending injury, and even the normally dependable Haslem missed almost half the season. As a result of all the injuries, an already decaying team became embarrassingly bad, playing out the end of the season with a roster full of D-Leaguers. On the plus side, they did get rid of Shaq’s hefty contract, they landed a superstar talent in Beasley, and Wade looked great playing with team USA over the summer.

Prediction

There are some pieces in place here, but there are also quite a few gaping holes. Wade, Beasley and Marion are three good pieces, but Wade is injury-prone, Beasley’s a rookie and Marion played horribly last year without Steve Nash throwing him lobs. Outside of those three there’s precious little talent on this roster. There’s not even a good backup-level point guard or center on the roster. Jamaal Magloire, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, Chris Quinn, Mario Chalmers, not a quality NBA player in the lot. Chalmers has a chance to become a good player, but he’s a rookie second round pick, do you want to bank your season on that? If Wade stays healthy all season, Marion accepts his job as a role player, and Beasley plays like the phenomenal talent he is, then this team can make the playoffs. However, the potential to collapse is a whole lot higher than the potential to succeed. I’m just seeing too many flaws in the Miami roster to pick them as a playoff team.

9^th in the East -The Crapshoot

xphoenix87 is a Contributing Writer for BallerBlogger.com. He’s writing season previews for all 30 NBA teams. In his spare time, he’s solving world hunger. He has no free time, so he’s not getting real far with that, but it’s a good idea in theory. Check back in tomorrow for Orlando’s preview.