Erick Blasco is a 21-year-old college student attending Brooklyn College on a full scholarship. He is majoring in Television/Radio and minoring in English with the hopes of someday becoming a professional basketball analyst.
The teams in the Central are hoping that new players and new coaches will rekindle great expectations. For the Pistons and Cavs, a championship, and for the rest, a playoff berth.
1) Detroit Pistons
The Pistons still boast an exceptional roster replete with big-time defenders, talented individual scorers, and complementary role players. On paper, they’re the best team in the division, and are good enough to challenge the Boston Celtics—and anybody else for an NBA title.
In Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons have two physical on-ball defenders, while Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, and Rip Hamilton provide intimidating length. Depending on the matchups, all four are capable one-on-one scorers, though Detroit’s offense runs best when Rip Hamilton is able to curl off baseline screens to free himself for mid-range jumpers.
Their bench is tough and athletic, headlined by Rodney Stuckey’s powerful penetrations off the dribble, and Jason Maxiell’s non-stop motor and freakish athleticism. Despite his inglorious reputation, Kwame Brown gives the team a sturdy post defender and rebounder who can provide a modicum of post offense, especially against the league’s backups. His signing was an astute acquisition by a general manager who’s made a living of turning other team’s trash into treasure.
However, despite the talent, the balance, the versatility, and the commitment to defense, Detroit has suffered from an elitist attitude under former head coach Flip Saunders, simply expecting to win by walking onto the court. Instead of playing with a killer instinct and gameplanning complex strategies to defeat an opponent, the Pistons would play simplistic one-on-one basketball on offense, and would be lethargic and slow to adapt on the defensive end.
Furthermore, while the Pistons had talent and balance, they lacked that one elite superstar to simply take over crucial moments of the biggest games. Sure, Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton could be counted on in the clutch, but only when Rasheed Wallace was vigorously venturing into the low post in 2004, have they ever fielded a low-post scorer who could take games over in the clutch. Under Saunders, Wallace was little more than a ball-reverser and three-point shooter.
The Pistons are hoping that their new coach, Michael Curry, can solve both those problems by providing more energy than Saunders, and by using his communicating skills to reinvigorate Wallace, but given the team’s veteran composition and Curry’s status as a rookie head coach, it’s hard to expect he’ll have much credibility in the locker room.
They still have the talent and the defensive presence to be one of the East’s elite, but unless ‘Sheed can find it in his heart to attack from the post, the Pistons won’t have the moxie to meet their perennial championship expectations.
2) Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are hoping that the addition of Mo Williams gives LeBron James the sidekick he desperately needs to lift the Cavaliers to a title—just as they hoped that Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones would provide answers to Cleveland’s prior punchless puzzle.
What general manager Danny Ferry and head coach Mike Brown can’t seem the realize is that by starting every single possession with James holding the ball at the top of the key before going into their offense, defenses can focus their undivided attention on LeBron. They won’t have to worry about off-ball movement and they know exactly where their defensive responsibilities will be at all times, making it easier for them to help on LeBron and recover back to their assignments.
Plus, will Mo Williams really provide the scoring and playmaking Cleveland thinks he will? He isn’t great at running an offense, and makes his living driving and pulling up off of screen/rolls. He doesn’t have the court vision to run a complex offense, and he isn’t a great spot-up shooter, which is what he’ll be since LeBron handles the ball so much.
And before last season’s trade, Cleveland had an exceptional defensive ball club, with LeBron evolving into a strong on-ball defender, Zydrunas Ilgauskas swallowing up post players with his massive frame, Larry Hughes clamping down the perimeter, and the entire team buying into Mike Brown’s defensive principals.
Now, the Cavs have Wally Szczerbiak’s ancient legs, Mo Williams’ stocky frame, and the ghost of Ben Wallace downgrading Cleveland’s overall team defense.
Their offense isn’t versatile enough, their defense has taken a step back, and the team may be the least athletic in the NBA. Unless LeBron’s inconsistent jump shooting improves, unless Mike Brown retools his entire offense, and unless the team gets a lot quicker in a hurry, the Cavs will be faced with yet another long summer of looking for a Robin for LeBron’s Batman.
3) Milwaukee Bucks
After Larry Krystkowiak couldn’t whip the selfish, defenseless Bucks into shape in his season-plus as head coach, general manager John Hammond fired him and replaced him with the fascist Scott Skiles.
To further show that the Bucks are committed to making a playoff push, project forward Yi Jianlian was shipped out, and Richard Jefferson was brought in to score, to pass, to defend, and to serve as a leader by showing his teammates that there is more to being a great basketball player than dominating the ball and looking to jack up shots.
With Jefferson on board, Michael Redd no longer has to be the team’s creator and can look to serve as a secondary catch-and-shoot guy off of Jefferson, a position which should benefit him and the team. Andrew Bogut is a serviceable NBA center, Luke Ridnour knows how to run an offense, Roman Sessions had as wonderful a final month of the 2007-08 season as he could have hoped for, and Tyronn Lue is the type of defensive pest Skiles loves to have.
However, Charlie Villanueva is soft, a poor defender, and a ball dominator who’ll no doubt land in Skiles’ doghouse. The rest of the big men lack bulk, length, or athleticism, the point guards are mediocre—or unproven, and the team has precious few elite role players which keep offenses humming and fill niches defensively.
The Bucks will challenge with the rest of the Eastern Conference’s mediocrity for a final playoff spot, but the roster is a year away from being a serious player.
4) Chicago Bulls
So many questions, so few answers.
Ben Gordon and Ben Wallace quit on the Bulls early last year and the season snowballed into a disaster. Wallace is long gone, but it’s uncertain whether Gordon’s poisonous attitude has also left for good. Gordon’s certainly a talented point maker, but he’s a poor finisher in traffic, defenseless, and lacks size to excel against longer stronger defenders. This is why he’d be best off as an explosive sixth man off the bench—a position he feels is below him.
With Gordon, the Bulls present a number of ways to score from the perimeter. Larry Hughes can slash and dash. Kirk Hinrich is a heady shooter. Thabo Selflosha’s smart and capable. Andres Nocioni’s reckless energy can turn the tides of close games, and Luol Deng’s mid-range offense is versatile and prolific.
Still, there’s still too much uncertainty surrounding the rotation—too many guards that aren’t stars, too few big men that aren’t even mediocre. The Bulls have yet to solve their lack of a refined post player, their over-emphasis on jump shooting, and their lack of quality defenders. And their new head man Vinny Del Negro is a complete mystery. Like the Bucks, the Bulls will be in the hunt for a playoff spot this season, but if they don’t solve the problems mentioned above, it will be a second straight trip to the lottery.
5) Indiana Pacers
About a season and a half too late, the Pacers have finally decided to start over and rebuild.
With Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley on the pine with injuries, the Pacers learned last season that Mike Dunleavy Jr. could be a smart, reliable playmaker to build around, while Danny Granger continues to be a matchup nightmare by being stronger than opposing small forwards, and faster than opposing power forwards.
T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack give the Pacers a young combination of a lithe speedster, and a smart sturdy backup which complement each other well, while Rasho Nesterovic and Jeff Foster are strong and dependable at center, and will more than compensate for Troy Murphy’s tissue-soft defenselessness.
However, the point-makers on the team can’t defend, the defensive players are very limited offensively, and there isn’t a lot of star power. The management finally has their heads in the right place, but it will take some time to see exactly what players need to surround Dunleavy and Granger for the Pacers to be escape the Central cellar.
October 27th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
I agree with everything except the Pacers. I think they’re a playoff team. They will be a transition team, which, when performing well, can beat anybody. Their players are all fast, they can all dribble, they can all shoot, etc. Individually, I know they don’t match up well on paper, but I think chemistry will be huge.
The Bucks are a sexier pick because of the names, but they have a glaring hole at point guard, and they too play zero defense. They also lack the depth the Pacers have.
Good analysis overall… I’m just disagreeing with you on Indy.
October 27th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Well – I completely disagree with much of your Cavs analysis. The only “old” player on the Cavs is big Z – and they have never relied on him being athletic.
Mo Williams is one of the best spot up shooters in the league. So i don’t know where you got he’s not a great spot up shooter.
When Mo Williams gets into the paint, it’s going to make a help defender converge – when he passes out of it, LeBron now has the ball and the defense is out of “LeBron Position”. The Cavs have desperately need a point guard that can break down defenses – and that is what Mo Williams can do.
As far as being unathletic…well, LeBron is the most athletic player in the league. Mo Williams is fast – and Delonte West is one of the more athletic guards in the league – as evident by his excellent rebound rate. The question marks are Pavlovic and Varajeo – who both looked much more explosive in the pre-season.
I guess we’ll see – but as a Cavs fan, my BIGGEST focus of excitement so far this pre-season has been HOW ATHLETIC the Cavs have looked.
The Cavs biggest questions are front court depth – but they are young, fast, and they didn’t get WORSE on defense? They were one of the best defensive teams in the league at the end of last year – the only personnel they have lost since then are Joe Smith (not a good defensive player) and Damon Jones (a defensive liability). Not to mention the fact that Pavlovic only gets minutes because he’s a pretty good defensive player and he’s healthy again – along with Varajeo, who was injured most of last year.
The Cavs have a high ceiling this year.
October 27th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Ok I guess Ben Wallace is ancient too – but it’s not like they are relying on Big Ben and Big Z to be streaking up and down the court finishing fast breaks.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
“Kirk Hinrich is a heady shooter.”
I’d like to know what the heck this means.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Thanks for the comments guys.
A-Train, I like the Pacers in a year. I just don’t know if they have the speed outside of Ford to excel in transition. They don’t have many perimeter defenders, and I don’t know if they have enough raw offense to compensate. They’re a team that could surprise but I’m a bit more tempered about their expectations.
Tsunami, Whenever I used to see Williams do his damage, it was driving and pulling, and he’d have trouble spotting up. Others have questioned the validity of that statement, so maybe I’ve just seen him have a lot of bad games.
And is Williams so good at blowing by his man, and especially passing after drawing, that he’d automatically draw a help defender, and automatically make a good pass? He has a history of sticky fingers.
Obviously LeBron is ridiculously athletic but he hasn’t been the problem. David West and Mo Williams are average to slightly above average for point guard athleticism, but that’s it. Pavlovic has moments where he looks explosive, and then he faces good teams, and he’s exposed for being slow as molasses. Big Z is slow, Ben Wallace is slow, Wally Szczerbiak is slow, for a point guard, Daniel Gibson is relatively slow, Andy Varejao can’t create his own offense, these are the supporting cast members who are asked to complement LeBron and there isn’t much there.
Smith was a smart help defender, and Larry Hughes was a better defender than he was given credit for. They’re both gone. Ben Wallace is breaking down. Big Z is ancient. Pavloovic isn’t anything special, Williams can’t defend…there’s still a lot of problems with Cleveland’s roster.
They’re tough enough and strong enough where they’ll beat up whatever too-soft first round opponent they get (unless it’s Cleveland), but I wonder if they have the supporting cast to get by Boston.
Bullsblogger, Hinrich has preety good court vision and is a good shooter. Condense the description, and you get heady shooter =)
October 27th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Well ok you have some good points.
But here’s the way I am looking at it. First of all – Mo Williams is a great shooter. Yes he likes to pull up and create offense for himself, but trust me – he is a good shooter. Guys that can hit 3s off the dribble generally don’t have trouble spotting up. Now very often spot up 3 points shooters don’t have the athleticism to shoot them off the dribble. I watched some of the Cavs preseason games and I saw a few things that showed me what the Cavs are capable of. First of all, I saw LeBron fire a few SPOT UP 3s – which he NEVER, I repeat NEVER gets. In fact LeBron almost never gets spot up j’s PERIOD. He has to create EVERYTHING on his own. In the final preseason game against washington, there was a sequence in the 3rd quarter where Mo Williams had the ball, made a move on his defender, drove the lane, a washington help defender stepped up and LeBron’s man kinda collapsed on Mo will and he kicked it out to LeBron who laced a spot up 3. that NEVER happens. It sounds very simple – but it’s something the Cavs have never had – Lebron has always been the best ball-handler, best passer, and best scorer. Now they have a legitimate point guard. Say what you want about Mo Will’s sticky fingers, but it matters not – as long as he is an efficient scorer, that’s all Cleveland needs. they don’t need him to average 10 assists a game. this is playmaking by committee. LeBron is going to be the primary playmaker and Mo will needs to feed off that, just like Lebron needs to feed off Mo Will – it’s a very interesting setup. how many teams can say they have a legitimate point guard and a legitimate point forward – BOTH who are efficient scorers and excellent ball handlers?? I’m trying to think of a team like this – and all I can come up with is Houston – T-Mac is a playmaker – a good passer and he creates a lot of the offense. Rafer Alston is their PG but he often is hitting spot up 3s off T-mac dishes. Mo Williams is a better shooter than Rafer though and LeBron is the best playmaker in the NBA. But you get the idea.
As far as athleticism – there are plenty of good teams that aren’t full of track stars. But as for the Cavs – I think you are underrating their athleticism. First of all, the ball-handlers on the Cavs are athletic. Mo Williams is very very quick and Lebron as everyone agrees is THE MOST athletic player in the NBA if not all professional sports. Delonte West is not that quick in the shifty sense but he has mad hops and a great nose for the ball. He always ranks near the top in rebounds for his position. I will agree that the main bigs of Cleveland aren’t particularly athletic – but they all rebound very well – and that is their job. They don’t need to be streaking down the court a la shawn marion. Philly is the best fast break team in the NBA and it’s because guys like AI are the ones finishing. On the Cavs who is going to be finishing fast breaks?? LeBron, LeBron, LeBron, and sometimes Mo williams and Delonte West – the ATHLETIC guys. Big Z, Big Ben, and Varejao are going to be rebounding and throwing the outlet passes.
Look, as far as defense is concerned, the Cavs have NEVER had great defensive personnel other than Eric Snow. But Mike Brown has this team playing championship caliber defense. They were the best defensive team in the playoffs last year – even better than Boston and that was a essentially the same team as they have now. Joe Smith was NOT a good defender – trust me, KG burned him enough times. Hughes was gone long b4 the playoffs although I agree he was an underrated defender (good hands). But they played championship caliber defense in spite of poor health. Varejao is healthy, Pavlovic is healthy, Gibson is healthy, and LeBron is going to be playing a lot at the 4, where he is DEVASTATING on defense – as evident by the Olympics. He calls out all the rotations, can sneak into passing lanes, and is strong enough to help out against most bigs.
This team will be a top 3 defensive team come seasons end, behind only Houston and maybe Boston.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
I just thought of another team. Portland.
They had Steve Blake (a poor man’s Mo Williams) and Brandon Roy (a very poor man’s LeBron) playing together. Roy, a 6′7″ point forward was the primary playmaker often (especially in 4th quarters) and Blake was a tweener who could handle the ball but was very comfortable hitting spot up 3s.
The key is having two dynamic offensive threats – the Cavs have never had this. Not only is going to lead to more easy baskets – which should keep Lebron fresh, but it is going to improve their team Shooting Percentage which is always at the bottom of the league. The Cavs win with defense and rebounding. Offense has been their achilles heel, so if that is improved and the defense stays the same, they are immediately a very dangerous team.
Mo williams has the skill set to improve the Cavalier’s offense. And if Varejao, Pavlovic, and Gibson are healthy and show the gradual improvement that most young players (all under 25) show, then their offense will improve there as well.