NBA Predictions: Team Awards

Most Valuable Player – LeBron James

James would have received my MVP vote at last season’s All-Star break. But he and the Cavaliers struggled towards the finish line. The MVP award isn’t an individual award, it’s a team award and it requires a 50-win season. James and the Cavs came up short with 45 victories.

I’m not as high on the Mo Williams acquisition as most NBA pundits. Like Jeff Van Gundy, I don’t put a lot of faith in players who put up big numbers on bad teams. Williams is a mediocre defender and a streak shooter who needs the ball in order to be effective. That could be a problem in Cleveland’s rudimentary offense.

Despite that, I like what I’ve seen from the Cavs thus far. As Brian McCormick noted, the Cavs seem to be making a concerted effort to get James the ball on the low block. I’ve written about this previously, but I think James would be virtually unstoppable if he spent more time at the power forward position.

If LeBron can remain healthy, the Cavs will win 50 plus games and James will capture his first of many MVP awards.

Outside shot: Kobe Bryant, Amare Stoudemire

Sixth Man of the Year – Lamar Odom

As a Lakers fan, I’m ecstatic that Phil Jackson has chosen to bring L.O. off the bench. Championship-caliber teams have a huge advantage when they’re able to put starting-caliber players in reserve roles.

The sixth man award has a history of being awarded to the top reserve on one of the league’s best teams and the Lakers will undoubtebly capture one of the Western Conference’s top seeds. The Lakers won 57 games last season and that included a 2-4 stretch between Andrew Bynum’s season-ending injury and the Pau Gasol trade. With Bynum and Gasol down low, and Kobe Bryant scoring in bunches and facilitating the triangle offense like never before, the Lakers have 70-win potential.

Odom was made the scapegoat after LA’s loss in the NBA Finals. But Odom averaged 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 59% from the field after the All-Star break. His Finals numbers were pretty solid too. Odom is at his best when the pressure is alleviated and he’s put in position to make quick decisions. As the Lakers sixth man this season, Odom will have more impact on the Lakers success than ever before.

Coach of the Year – Nate McMillan

Nate McMillan has his work cut out for him in Portland. The Blazers are one of the youngest teams in the league and expectations are sky-high in Rip City. But I have all the confidence in the world that McMillan will get the job done. Why? Because he’s taking the right approach. McMillan is preaching we-before-me and creating an environment that builds trust. The Blazers have an abundance of talent, it’s a matter of putting the pieces together.

Many bloggers and journalists are taking a wait-and-see approach with the Trail Blazers. I get that. But I’m not one of them. The Blazers have the talent to do some serious damage in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. I know that age and experience trumps youth in the NBA. But Nate McMillan is a no-nonsense coach and Portland’s leader — Brandon Roy — plays with a maturity far beyond his years. Look for the Blazers to win 47-52 games and for McMillan to be rewarded for guiding the upstart Blazers to a playoff berth.

Western Conference Regular Season Champion – Los Angeles Lakers

Kobe Bryant is still the best player in the world, Andrew Bynum is a beast, Pau Gasol will thrive playing power forward in the triangle, and the Lakers are deeper than any team in the NBA.

Eastern Conference Regular Season Champion – Boston Celtics

Boston won’t win 66 games again. But 55-60 wins will be enough to capture the #1 seed in the East.

Western Conference Playoff Teams

1. Lakers
2. Hornets
3. Rockets
4. Spurs
5. Jazz
6. Suns
7. Blazers
8. Nuggets

Eastern Conference Playoff Teams

1. Celtics
2. Pistons
3. Cavaliers
4. Sixers
5. Magic
6. Raptors
7. Wizards
8. Heat

My Top Ten NBA Teams

Here are my top ten teams in the NBA this season.  My rankings are not predicting win-loss records.

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Boston Celtics
3. New Orleans Hornets
4. Houston Rockets
5. San Antonio Spurs
6. Cleveland Cavaliers
7. Detroit Pistons
8. Utah Jazz
9. Phoenix Suns
10. Portland Trail Blazers

NBA Champion – Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are the team to beat. I honestly can’t decide which team will come out of the East, but it’s going to come down to Boston and Cleveland. Detroit is a great regular season team, but they can’t stop LeBron or Paul Pierce. Orlando and Philly are too inexperienced.

It’s very difficult for me to pick against Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen. But the Celtics are going to miss James Posey and PJ Brown. Leon Powe, Big Baby, Tony Allen, and Bill Walker will produce during the regular season, but they are unproven in pressure situations.

Bottom line: Boston would not have won the 2007-2008 NBA championship, much less advanced past Cleveland without Posey and Brown. It was Posey that defended Kobe Bryant and LeBron James when Paul Pierce went to the bench. Who will defend those types of players now when Pierce takes a breather or gets into foul trouble?

I’m not sold on LeBron’s supporting cast or Mike Brown’s offense. But I am sold on LeBron and Cleveland’s defense. The Cavs are a great defensive team that controls the glass. Cleveland took the Celtics to 7 games last season despite James shooting only 36% in that series. And don’t forget that it took a 41 point effort from Pierce in Game 7 for the Celtics to advance.

I love what I saw from LeBron James this summer. James is going to DOMINATE the NBA this season — on both ends. Not only will James win MVP, but I expect him to be named to his first All-NBA Defensive team too.

It would be a treat to watch Kobe Bryant and LeBron James go at it for the NBA championship. But that’s not where that series would be decided. Cleveland cannot match up with LA’s frontcourt. The Cavaliers are a great rebounding team, but Ben Wallace and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are running on fumes. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol would take advantage of Cleveland’s aging frontcourt.

Boston’s starting five can match up with LA’s. But the biggest difference in last year’s NBA Finals was Boston’s defense and bench production. The Lakers received next to nothing from their bench corps. James Posey, Eddie House, and PJ Brown played fantastic for the C’s. Two of those three players are gone.

I know it sounds cliche, but the sky is the limit for the Lakers. Kobe Bryant is surrounded by more talent than at any point in his career. Bryant’s days as a 30 ppg scorer may be behind him, and that’s fine. With a myriad of weapons at his disposal, look for Bryant to average a career-high in assists this season.

The Lakers struggled to stop penetration last season, especially from the small forward position. Enter Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza. Bynum is more than capable of protecting the basket and Ariza has the length and lateral quickness to slow down opposing small forwards. With the return of Bynum and Ariza, the Lakers have seemingly shored up their only real weakness.

As xphoenix87 pointed out in his season preview, this is a team that can play big, small, and possesses slashers and shooters to exploit defensive weaknesses. Opponents are going to have to pick their poison when they matchup with the Lakers this season. Opposing defenses may be able to take away one thing, but the Lakers possess the versatility and offensive system to pick opponents apart over the course of 48 minutes.

NBA Predictions: Division Winners

NBA Predictions:  Individual Awards