Season Preview Primer

Los Angeles Lakers

Coach: Phil Jackson
2007-08 Record: 57-25
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 59-23
Offensive Rating: 113 (3^rd in the league)
Defensive Rating: 105.5 (5^th)
Possessions per 48: 95.6 (6^th)
Min%: 86.8 (8^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

Everything that can be written about Kobe probably has been written. He’s one of the most polarizing figures in sports, and love him or hate him, you can’t help but acknowledge his amazing abilities. I won’t bore you by talking about Kobe’s strengths and weaknesses, because you’ve probably seen that a hundred times over the past year. I will tell you that two things worry me about this year. The first is Kobe’s pinkie, which he decided not to have surgery on. We’ve been told that it won’t really affect him, but I fail to see how playing an 82-game season with a broken pinkie wouldn’t affect you at all. Maybe it’s minor and will amount to nothing, but it’s something to keep an eye on. The other question is “how will Kobe’s body hold up?” He’s only 30, but it’s an old 30. He’s played 1018 games (playoffs and regular season) in his career, more than “old” guys like Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, Ray Allen, Steve Nash and Ben Wallace. Not only that, but he’s coming off a year where he played 103 games and then played in the Olympics. Kobe’s been very durable, but if you’re a Laker fan you have to be worried about a possible decline in his production.

I like the plan to move Lamar Odom to the bench. You clearly can’t play him along with Bynum and Gasol for too long, because that lineup just isn’t quick enough to guard explosive wing players, and Odom isn’t a good enough shooter to space the floor for the other two bigs. From the bench, he can come in and spell either of the big guys and give them a very different look with his ability to play a point forward role. He gives the second unit a leader that it lacked previously. Of course, the danger in this is that you take a guy who has had some concentration and consistency problems, and you put him on the bench where you’re going to call on him to be an immediate spark when you put him in the game. Odom’s mentality doesn’t really fit with the “bench star” profile. If he’s going to play a big role, he’ll have to accept that high-energy bench player mindset, willing to come in and do whatever he’s called on to do.

In case you were wondering, that Pau Gasol guy is really, really good. When you stop focusing on what he’s not (a dominant defender and rebounder) and focus on what he is (one of the most league’s most devastating offensive weapons), his value jumps off the page. Gasol is the rare post player who has basically no holes on the offensive end. He’s an exceptional low post scorer, able to use his length, touch and great footwork to convert at a high rate around the rim and also get to the foul line quite a bit. He can also score very efficiently out of the high-post, which should make him an excellent compliment to Bynum. He has a very solid jumper, and he has a quickness advantage against most bigs, allowing him to easily get to the rim on face-up opportunities. This also makes him an excellent pick-and-roll guy, since he can either pop to the elbow for a jumper, or can roll down the lane, where his great hands make him an easy target. Lastly, Gasol is one of the best passing big men in the league. He creates opportunities for others, and he’s exceptional at handling the double team. What’s more amazing is that he manages to do all this and rarely turns the ball over. Defensively, Gasol is a decent shot blocker, but he’s more suited to guarding quicker power forwards than banging on the block. This is another area where Bynum will help, since Gasol won’t be called on as much to handle strong back to the basket threats.

As good as LA is at shooting guard and both the post positions, questions remain about the rest of the roster. Who will get the majority of minutes at point guard? What’s the small forward rotation going to look like? Can you win a title while starting a non-defender (Vladimir Radmanovic) at a position where some of the league’s most potent scorers play?

If you had to pick one reason why LA lost the Finals, it would be the small forward position. With the exception of game 3, Paul Pierce scored basically at will against the matador defense of Radmanovic and Luke Walton. While that should be helped by the presence of Bynum defending the rim, you’d still rather not have Radmonovic guarding guys like Pierce, Ron Artest, Josh Howard or, God forbid, LeBron. The answer to this is, at least the Lakers hope, is Trevor Ariza. He’s an excellent defender who could be the answer on that side of the ball. However, he’s not a perimeter shooter, and that’s a problem for a team that needs floor spacers. How Ariza performs offensively will largely determine how many minutes he gets this year, and you’ve got to think that LA would eventually like to see him as the starter given his strength defensively.

Jordan Farmar will eventually be the Lakers’ starter at point guard, but I think Derek Fisher is probably going to hold that spot for this season. He’s a better shooter and less turnover-prone, which is really all that LA needs from that position. Both are strong defenders, with Fisher being a better team defender (led the league in charges drawn) and Farmar being a better defender against quicker guards.

X-Factor: Andrew Bynum – Could it be anyone else? There may not be a bigger x-factor in the league than Bynum. There are plenty of questions that remain to be answered about the Lakers’ young center. How will he recover injury? Was his production for 35 games last year the real thing, or a fluke? How will he coexist with Pau Gasol? The main thing LA hopes that Bynum can do is shore up their defense, especially their weakness on the defensive glass. He can match up with bigger post players and allow Gasol to focus on guarding quicker players and blocking shots from the weakside. Even if Bynum only gives them 20-25 minutes a game, he should at bare minimum improve their defense significantly. Offensively, I’m not so sure I believe the hype about him. He’s big, he’s long, he’s strong, and he has great hands, all of which combined to make him a deadly pick-and-roll player, especially with Kobe throwing him lobs. However, I’m not buying that he’s a legitimate low-post scorer yet, and especially not after missing half a season. A massive 31% of his shot attempts were dunks last year, and he was a bit limited when he wasn’t able to get all the way to the rim. The Lakers were at their best offensively when they were spacing the floor and moving the ball in a perfect triangle offense, and we’ll have to see how Bynum fits into that. There are a lot of questions, but there’s also a lot of upside with Bynum, and his success will make or break this team.

Overview

I think it’s safe to say that last season was a success, don’t you? What a difference a year makes. At this time last year, we were still talking about possible Kobe trades, probably to the Bulls. Since then, the Lakers found a center of the future, lost him to injury, pulled off a steal of a trade, finished with the best record in a super-competitive West, saw their star win an MVP award, and went to the NBA Finals. I’d call that a pretty good season for a team that was considered a borderline playoff team at the beginning of the year. After a fantastic start to the season, it seemed like LA would be in trouble when Bynum went down after his promising start. Instead, much-maligned GM Mitch Kupchak traded what amounts to table scraps to bring in Gasol. That, combined with great bench play and Kobe’s usual excellence, allowed LA to excel down the stretch as well, and go deep into the playoffs. With great production from basically everyone on the roster, LA excelled at basically everything but rebounding the ball, where they were only mediocre (paging Andrew Bynum). Whatever happens over the next few years, I think we can be pretty sure that Kobe is a lot happier in LA than he would’ve been in Chicago.

Prediction

I’m cautiously optimistic about the Lakers. Now, on the one hand, people seem ready to hand them the title right now, and that scares me. They’re the prohibitive favorites, with all the problems that can bring. This is not the veteran-laden team that won three rings in a row, this is a team full of young, developing players. How will they respond when they go through rough stretches, if they don’t live up to expectations early? How will Bynum respond if he struggles to get integrated into the offense? Obviously, having Kobe and Phil around should help offset that a great deal, but dealing with expectations will be a big deal, especially as they try to work Bynum back into the flow of things. On the other hand, from a talent and depth standpoint there really isn’t anyone who can match this team. They go 11 deep with productive players, and there aren’t many teams you can say that about. They also have such great roster diversity that they can throw several distinct looks at you. They can play big with a Bynum-Gasol-Odom frontline, they can play small with a Farmar/Fisher-Vujacic-Kobe backcourt, they can sport maybe the best passing frontline in the league if they play Gasol-Odom-Walton, they can play slashers (Ariza) or shooters (Radmanovic), etc. Their talent and their versatility makes the Lakers almost impossible to match up with, but it could possibly derail them too. Jackson will have to figure out the best way to balance minutes and get his best lineups out on the floor. If anyone can do it, it’s Phil, but I certainly don’t envy him that job. All the pieces are in place to add to the prestigious Lakers legacy, but there are still plenty of questions to be answered before we get to that point.

1st in the West – The Favorites

xphoenix87 is a Contributing Writer for BallerBlogger.com. He’s got Kobe on his fantasy team, so he’s hoping that pinkie holds up. He’s writing season previews for all 30 NBA teams. Check back in tomorrow for Phoenix’s preview.