Season Preview Primer

Sacramento Kings

Coach: Reggie Theus
2007-08 Record: 38-44
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 35-47
Offensive Rating: 107.5 (13^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 109.9 (25^th)
Possessions per 48: 94.7 (8^th)
Min%: 82.2 (12^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie)

I absolutely love Kevin Martin. Very few people appreciate just how good this guy really is. If you’ve been following along with these previews, you’ve seen me talk about the two most efficient ways a player can score, three-pointers and free-throws. Well, Martin has those two things down to an art form. Taking just under a third of his shots from behind the arc, and knocking them down at a 40% rate, Martin has established himself as one of the league’s deadliest shooters, whether off the catch or off the dribble. He moves off the ball as well as anyone in the league, getting himself open off of screens, flares, backcuts, and everything in between. In addition to that deadly jumper, Martin gets to the line as well as any perimeter player in the league. He took 15 field goals a game, and a whopping 9.5 free throws. Not only that, but he also knocked those free throws down at an 87% clip, good for 12^th in the league. While he’s not much of a defender, and he’s not going to create a lot of shots for teammates, he puts the ball in the basket like very few players can. When you watch him play and look at his stat lines, it’s hard not to think “young Reggie Miller.” As bad as the rest of Sacramento’s roster may be, Martin is a star you can build around.

Beno Udrih will make over $6 mil a year over the next 5 years. I have nothing more to say.

No team in the league has more bad contracts than Sacramento. In addition to Beno, they’re paying Bobby Jackson $6 mil, the retired Shareef Abdur-Rahim gets $6.2 mil, $5.8 mil for Mikki Moore and $8 mil for Kenny Thomas. That’s not even funny, it’s just sad. Where can I sign up to be an NBA GM? Really, it’s not rocket science guys.

I’m not sure they’re legitimate starter material, but I think John Salmons and Fransisco Garcia are both good rotation players. They’re both versatile wings who have the ball-handling skills to run the offense for stretches. Salmons is an aggressive slasher offensively, and one of the more underrated defenders in the league. Garcia is a guy who can really shoot the ball, and both guys rebound the ball pretty well for their position.

I thought the Kings reached a bit for Jason Thompson on draft night, especially since they could have had Jerryd Bayless, but I do really like Thompson as a prospect. He’s a solid athlete who moves really well for his size. The Kings are in desperate need of a strong post defender, and Thompson could provide that. He was an excellent shot blocker in college, and he has the quickness to defend some on the perimeter too. Offensively, he’s a lot more raw, but he definitely has some good tools. He needs to improve his ability to finish in the post and become less mechanical in his low post moves, but he’s a solid midrange shooter and a good ball-handler for his size. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a good deal of minutes this year just because he’s the only decent post defender the Kings have.

Well, I suppose that last statement isn’t exactly true. Shelden Williams can play defense, but he’s undersized and doesn’t really bring anything to the table offensively. By the way, he was drafted ahead of Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay.

X-Factor: Brad Miller – Miller’s production had been dropping like a rock for three seasons and he looked like he was pretty well on the way out, but last year he had a bit of a resurgence. He had a big jump in rebound rate, drew more fouls, and regained his shooting touch. At his best, Miller is a deadly offensive threat from the high post. He’s extremely skilled, with the ability to hit jumpers out to the three-point line, great ball-handling for his size, and a fantastic passing touch. If Sacramento wants to have any kind of success this year, they’re going to need another good year from Miller. While it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to have the same success he had last year on the glass and getting to the line, it’s reasonable to think he’ll shoot as well from the perimeter again. With the Kings’ young big men probably still at least a year away from being real contributors, Miller will be called on to carry the load one more time.

Overview

It was a fairly crazy year overall for the Kings. They were racked by injuries, with 5 of their 6 best players missing at least 10 games. Aside from that, they also had to deal with various trade rumors about Ron Artest (who didn’t get moved until after the season) and Mike Bibby (who got sent to the Hawks). With all of that going on, you wouldn’t think that Sacramento could’ve done much, especially since they weren’t that good in the first place. Surprisingly though, the team managed to win 38 games, largely behind some very good seasons from role players Udrih, Garcia and Salmons. That, combined with the rejuvenation of Miller and the continued improvement of Martin, they were able to stay fairly competitive. They were pretty bad in most facets of the game, but they were able to be an above-average offensive team because they got to the free throw line more than any other team in the league (thank you Kevin Martin). The offseason brought what has sadly become the regular for Sacramento: a dubious draft pick (Thompson) and a mediocre free agent signing (Udrih).

Prediction

With the trades of Bibby and Artest, Sacramento has entered full-blown rebuilding mode. While they do have a legitimate star (Martin) to build around, they’re worse off than most rebuilding teams because of their glut of bad contracts. It’ll be at least two more years before they have any kind of cap flexibility, and in the meantime they’re stuck with a support cast of either aging or mediocre players. They may be able to hover somewhere around 30 wins this year if everything goes right, but things are probably going to get worse before they get better. This year is about seeing what they’ve got with the young guys, and gunning for that high lottery spot.

12th in the West – The Drop-Off

xphoenix87 is a Contributing Writer for BallerBlogger.com. He’s written season previews for all 30 NBA teams. If you haven’t read them, you should check them out. If you have read them, well read them again, they’re that awesome.