You’ve probably read about 100 articles/blogs analyzing the Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess trade by now. I know I have. So what’s one more?
Denver
At the very least, Denver’s trade for Chauncey Billups was an admission that the Allen Iverson trade for Andre Miller was a mistake. Sure, coach George Karl and the Nuggets have spoken glowingly about Iverson’s time in the Mile High City. But in trading for Billups, the Nuggets acquired Andre Miller with a jumpshot.
Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Billups 2007-08: 17.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 2.7 RPG, .448 FG%, .401 3P%, .918 FT%
Miller 2007-08: 17.0 PPG, 6.9 APG, 3.9 RPG, .492 FG%, .088 3P%, .772 FT%
Save the PER and Win Shares argument. PER doesn’t take into account a players supporting cast and/or offensive system. Both Miller and Billups are pass-first point guards with off-the-charts basketball IQs.
I’ll concede that Chauncey’s long-distance shooting is going to help spread the floor for Carmelo Anthony, JR Smith and company. But remember, the Nuggets didn’t trade Andre Miller for a long-distance shooter, they traded for Iverson because they wanted to play at a faster pace. Miller was/is a half-court point guard. So is Billups.
In Billups, the Nuggets acquired a true point guard who will get the ball to Carmelo in scoring position, just as Miller did. Granted, Billups will take and make the big shots in the clutch, but the Nuggets already have a go-to-guy in the closing minutes in Anthony.
Kelly Dwyer of Yahoo! Sports pointed out that “the Nuggets are on the books for nearly $70 million in 2010-11 with just Chauncey, Nene, Kenyon Martin, Kleiza (assuming he gets seven million a year), Carmelo Anthony, and J.R. Smith on board. Just six players, well over the cap, and approaching luxury tax territory.”
That’s true, but of those six players, the only one who is overpaid is Martin. Nene has All-Star skills, he’s just been beset by unfortunate circumstance. Bottom line: something needed to be done. The Nuggets weren’t going to win a championship with Allen Iverson. They probably won’t win a championship with Billups either, but Denver could no longer afford to man the point guard position — the most important position in basketball — with journeymen veterans. Allen Iverson was not the “answer” — neither is Anthony Carter or Chucky Atkins.
Even if the Nuggets had let Iverson’s contract expire after this season and sought to shore up their point guard position through free agency, Denver would have been hard-pressed to sign a point guard of Chauncey Billups’ caliber.
I very rarely agree with John Hollinger, but I couldn’t agree more with his trade analysis. Denver received the better player. Billups shot a career best 45% from the field last season and will age much better than Iverson since he’s never been dependent upon his athleticism.
I also agree that the “biggest winner” in this trade may be Carmelo Anthony. Maybe it’s because I watched Melo lead Syracuse to the national championship as a freshmen. Or maybe it’s because I live in Denver and have watched him live on numerous occasions. But I firmly believe that the kid is a winner. Anthony is as clutch as they come and has the most prodigious scoring skill set in the NBA. Iverson’s arrival stunted Anthony’s basketball development and maturation as a team leader. With Iverson in Denver, it’s sink or swim for Anthony. Put away the life jackets.
Detroit
Contrary to popular opinion, the Pistons weren’t championship contenders with Chauncey Billups. And they certainly aren’t contenders with Allen Iverson. Financially, the deal makes sense for Detroit. As Matt Watson pointed out, the Pistons could have as much as $36 million in cap space this summer if they let Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, and Walter Herrmann’s contracts expire. Some have surmised that Detroit may be clearing cap space to make a run at LeBron James. I don’t think Detroit has a shot at James. Joe Dumars is a much better GM than Danny Ferry, and as such, is much more capable of building a championship team. But if James leaves Cleveland, I think it will be for the opportunity build his brand under the bright lights of New York. The same goes for Dwyane Wade. Both James and Wade are heavily influenced by the business side of basketball. If Wade leaves Miami, I tend to believe that his hometown Chicago Bulls (one of the largest media markets in the NBA and home to Derrick Rose, the player Wade was hoping the Heat would draft) have the inside track. However, I think the Pistons have a shot at signing Chris Bosh.
But I digress. I’m not convinced that this was a cap clearing move for the Pistons. Remember, this is the second time Joe Dumars has attempted to trade for Iverson.
Things become even more confusing on the court. In Iverson and Wallace, the Pistons sport two players who are the model of poor shot selection. Compounding matters is the fact that — Richard Hamilton — who led the Pistons in scoring last season — plays the same position as Iverson. There has been talk of Iverson switching to the point guard position full-time. But that will only delay the development of prized second-year combo-guard Rodney Stuckey.
And let’s not forget that Hamilton scores most of his points by working tirelessly off the ball to free himself for catch-and-shoot opportunities. How will Hamilton’s skills mesh with the ball-dominating Iverson? Will Hamilton continue to bust his tail off the ball when he sees Iverson dribbling away the shot clock?
Final Analysis
Denver needed a point guard and they acquired a former Finals MVP and current NBA All-Star. Acquiring Billups stops short of making the Nuggets championship contenders, but it does guarantee that they will remain in playoff contention through 2010-2011. Billups also makes Denver much better defensively.
It was past time for Joe Dumars to blow the ship up in Detroit, and he certainly did that by trading for Allen Iverson. Look, I used to be a huge AI fan when he was with Philly. But he does not make his teammates better … not one bit. Iverson will breathe life into the Pistons. And he may play nice and facilitate during the regular season. But when the pressure mounts, Iverson will revert to his high shot volume, low efficiency ways in the playoffs. You can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
Iverson’s expiring contract will give Joe Dumars options in free agency. And as TrueHoop pointed out, there are a number of top-flight free agents who will be available in 2010. Including “LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Ray Allen, Tyson Chandler, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Joe Johnson, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Redd.”
But are any of those players likely to sign with the Pistons?
LeBron James – More likely to re-sign with Cleveland or bolt for New York.
Dwyane Wade – More likely to re-sign with Miami or head home to Chicago.
Chris Bosh – Possible.
Amare Stoudemire – Possible.
Ray Allen – No chance. Why would he leave KG and Paul Pierce in Boston?
Tyson Chandler – No chance. Why would he leave CP3? Chris Paul is Chandler’s meal ticket.
Manu Ginobili – No chance.
Richard Jefferson – Possible. Overrated.
Joe Johnson- Possible.
Tracy McGrady – No chance.
Yao Ming – No chance.
Steve Nash – No chance.
Dirk Nowitzki – Possible.
Michael Redd – Possible.
Of those players, you’ve got one true superstar in Amare Stoudemire and a bunch of All-Stars who are better suited to be complimentary players. Iverson or not, the Pistons are poised for a lengthy rebuilding process. Given his track record, it’s difficult to doubt Dumars. But Detroit’s 2004 championship team was unique. It was led by two players — Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace — who no one else wanted. Dumars deserves credit for taking a chance on those guys. But how many of those types of players are out there?
I admire Dumars’ championship ambition. But nothing is guaranteed. Championship teams aren’t built through free agency very often. Mainly because it’s difficult to acquire that go-to-guy who can create something out of nothing. Iverson is not that type of player any longer. Without Billups’ court savvy, the Pistons may soon realize that advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals year in and year out wasn’t such a bad thing after all.
November 4th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
As we’ve discussed many times before, we have decidedly different opinions on Iverson and Miller. As such, it will probably come as no surprise that I disagree with you on a lot of counts here.
1 – In no way is Andre Miller remotely comparable to Chauncey Billups. Even last year, in arguably the best year of his career, Miller’s production wasn’t close to that of Billups. Even if we don’t take defense into account (where Billups wins hands-down), they aren’t even close. Billups had a higher usage rate, a much higher offensive efficiency, a higher assist percentage, a lower turnover rate, got to the free throw line more, and shot the ball much, much better. That’s comparing a career year for Miller to what Billups has been doing consistently for the last 4 years. Billups is clearly a better player.
2 – Miller wasn’t/isn’t and has never been a half-court point guard. He has always been decidedly better in transition than he was in the half-court. He’s not a good shooter and throws lob passes better than anyone in the league, hence, transition player.
3 – You can say that an injury-prone 26 year old post player who doesn’t rebound well and has rudimentary post skills is worth $10 million a year, but I’m going to beg to differ.
4 – I think I’m in the minority here, but I like the trade for Detroit. I think it makes them a lot more intriguing this year, and it’s fantastic for their cap. They wanted to get rid of Billups anyway to make room for Stuckey, and now regardless of what happens this year, Stuckey will be the starting point guard next year.
5 – When Iverson wasn’t required to bear all the load in Denver last year, he had an exceptional season. Also, contrary to popular belief, Billups isn’t much more of a “true” point guard than Iverson is. Billups has always been more of a scorer than a distributor, it just doesn’t stand out as much because the Pistons play such a slow pace. Billups’ career assist percentage is 29%, compared to Iverson’s 29.3% (Iverson also has a lower turnover rate, despite his obscenely high usage rate). Iverson’s also a go-to guy in the clutch, something the Pistons have lacked (no, despite his nickname, Billups isn’t a guy who can create a shot at any time like Iverson can).
6 – Hamilton is, to me, actually a perfect fit with Iverson. He doesn’t require the ball in his hands much to be effective since he does most of his work off the ball, which fits well with a guy who heavily controls the ball.
7 – You’re telling me that you don’t think a Detroit team of Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Maxiell/Johnson and Bosh/Stoudamire/Dirk/Boozer plus whoever else they put around them is a title contender? I agree that they don’t have a shot at landing LeBron, but they still have a pretty strong core, and they have loads of cap space for the most important free agent group in a long time.
Am I ready to consider the Pistons better than the Cavs or Celtics? Not right now, but I do think they have a shot at a title now, where I didn’t think that before. Iverson is a dynamic player, and he brings a killer instinct that Detroit hasn’t had since Ben Wallace in his prime.
November 4th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
My good friend xphoenix87:
I think the Miller-Billups comparison is valid. As I’ve written previously, Miller is one of the most underrated players in the league. You really have to watch the guy night in and night out to understand his true value.
I never said that Miller was terrible in the open court, but he’s a half-court PG. He’s not going to beat anyone from end line to end line. And playing him in the open court minimizes one of his biggest strength — his post game. Again, do you watch Miller or are you going off of some scouting report? Trust me, the Nuggets would not have traded Miller if he was a fast break point guard. They traded him because they wanted to play at a faster pace.
Nene has yet to reach his potential. But his potential is obvious. If he can remain healthy, he’ll earn every penny of his contract. Let’s not forget that it was a bout with cancer — not some freak injury — that derailed him last season.
Iverson had one of his better seasons last year because of the defensive attention payed to Carmelo Anthony. Iverson was rarely doubled in Denver. Opposing teams defended Carmelo the same as always, they sent double and triple teams his way and dared anyone — including Iverson — to beat them. Again, you have to watch the Nuggets extensively to know this.
You said, “Hamilton is, to me, actually a perfect fit with Iverson. He doesn’t require the ball in his hands much to be effective since he does most of his work off the ball, which fits well with a guy who heavily controls the ball.”
Yeah that’s great, ya’ know, if Iverson actually gives him the ball.
I think if the Pistons nab Stoudemire and surround him the right pieces, they can contend. If they acquire anyone else that I listed above, they’re still going to need another big piece in order to contend for the championship.
Detroit’s 2004 title team was an exception to the rule. That team was a team in the truest sense of the word. History has proven that you need a transcendent superstar(s) to win a championship. Those players are very hard to come by … especially through free agency. Iverson is not that type of player any longer.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
I actually like the trade for each team, but more so for Denver.
I think the Miller-Billups comparison is valid in the sense that Denver traded away an extremely bright point guard who plays with great unselfish, has an uncanny ability to run an offense, sets teammates up with his playmaking, and makes great decisions.
They picked up Allen Iverson who scored and scored and scored, but at the expense of leaving the team defenseless and committed to simply running an isolation offense. Plus he shoots so many jumpers for somebody that doesn’t have a good jumper, and he isn’t a great finisher.
Now they pick up Billups, another smart, tough, unselfish player, who’ll open up the offense, play much better defense, and, despite what you said Phoenix, has the ability to make tough shots in crunch time if given any semblance of an open look.
Denver has enough offense. Now they have a basketball team instead of a circus.
As for the Pistons, they need a go to player since Rasheed Wallace would rather be a three-point specialist, and Iverson gives them that. He also removes that cloud of comfort from Detroit, where the Pistons have been too comfortable and have coasted the last few years, hurting them in the regular season. There’s a sense of urgency again, because if Billups can be shipped out, everyone can.
Can Iverson run their halfcourt offense so that RIP gets his catches in shooting position as soon as he’s open coming off the pick, or will Iverson not be able to see that/rather look to create off the bounce?
Despite having so many good defenders behind him, will Iverson be so bad on defense that his teammates won’t be able to make up for it?
While Detroit becomes better in one sense, that aspect really limits them. And can AI handle the physicality of the East’s best teams? He’s probably too quick for Cleveland, but Boston will murder him.
Interesting goings on early in the season.
November 5th, 2008 at 11:23 am
I admit, you’ve watched Miller play far more than I have. I’m at the mercy of highlight videos and TV schedules for how much of a player I get to see. However, I know that in most cases, watching a guy night-in and night-out doesn’t give you a clear view of how good he is, it gives you a biased view. To me, Miller is a poor man’s Jason Kidd. He rebounds decently, he’s an above-average passer, he’s big enough to back other guards down, and he has no jumpshot. Anybody in here think Kidd is a half-court point guard? Yeah, didn’t think so. Five times in his career Miller has played on one of the 5 fastest teams in the league, and only twice has he played on a team in the bottom half of the league in pace. He’s not a half-court point guard. Now Billups, he’s a half-court point guard.
“Let’s not forget that it was a bout with cancer — not some freak injury — that derailed him last season.”
Yes, and the year before that when he missed 18 games? And the year before that when he destroyed his knee and missed the whole season? And the year before that when he missed 27 games? He’s injury-prone. He’s also just not that good. There’s a point at which you stop paying for potential. At 26 with 6 seasons under his belt, it’s probably time.
“If they acquire anyone else that I listed above, they’re still going to need another big piece in order to contend for the championship.”
I think you’re wildly underselling Chris Bosh (who I’d rather have than Dwayne Wade right now).
“he isn’t a great finisher”
By what stretch of the imagination is Allen Iverson not a good finisher? Looking at shooting percentage on shots close to the rim, here are some of the guys AI shot better than: Dirk, T-Mac, Billups, Gerald Wallace, Andrew Bogut, Vince Carter, Joe Johnson, Chris Kaman, do I really need to keep going?
“and, despite what you said Phoenix, has the ability to make tough shots in crunch time if given any semblance of an open look.”
He can make shots, he can’t create them, there’s a difference. Iverson may not be as high percentage a shooter as Billups is, but he can get that same percentage shot at any time in the game. That’s what a “clutch” player is. A Kobe jumpshot isn’t as high percentage as say, a Dwight Howard dunk, but Kobe can get that exact same jumpshot off at the end of a game even when everyone knows it’s coming. Same principle here.
“And can AI handle the physicality of the East’s best teams? He’s probably too quick for Cleveland, but Boston will murder him.”
I’m gonna pretend you didn’t just question the ability of Iverson, possibly the toughest player the game has ever seen, to handle physical play.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
I’ve seen my share of Miller and Billups over the years. I would say Miller is more of a point guard and Billups is more of a two guard that shoots well enough off the dribble to be a point guard. Billups is a much better shooter, but Miller has better court vision and is a better passer. Miller has a decent mid-range game – he likes to pull up on his jumper, especially on fast breaks. They can both finish around the basket.
Miller is better suited with explosive wings that are always going to the basket like Igudola. Billups will be better suited with Melo, who is coming off curls.
Detroit has badly needed a go-to scorer the last 3 years, but I wonder if Iverson is the guy. I agree with X that he is a quick pg that will give Cleveland fits, but Rondo will have no problem with him. However, MyDyess and Billups were BY FAR the two players that gave Cleveland the most trouble the last few years in the playoffs.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:03 am
Go put a body on Iverson with how recklessly he attacks the rim, and he’ll miss layup after layup. How many layups did he botch against the Lakers last year? Against the Spurs the year before? Four or five a game? Sure he’ll draw some fouls because of his guts, and he’ll hit some spectacular shots, but Iverson’s overrated as a finisher.
The closest defense to this year’s Celtics is the 2006 Spurs. Iverson shot 11-22, 9-25 (7 missed layups!), 7-20 (3 missed layups), 9-25 (3 missed layups), and 6-22 (4 missed layups)
Those are a lot of missed layups for a player who is supposedly a great finisher. If a team has big men who can rotate onto Iverson’s penetrations, they’ll spook him at the rim or force him to try and make incredibly tricky layups because he can’t go through a defense. So for every spectacular shot he makes, he’s bricking a layup, or short fadeaway over some defender’s outstretched arms.
Tony Parker, in all honesty, is a better finisher than Allen Iverson.
As for Billups not being able to create shots, if you iso, he’ll hit a three with your arm extended. He’s been doing it for years. He may not be able to blow by his man and a help defender, but he’ll set his man up with footwork, pump fakes, balance, and then knock a jumper in your face. You don’t always need athleticism to create a shot if you have guile.
With that shooting percentage, how many shots does Iverson take at the rim that are flat out unguarded because a defense can’t handle him? Plus, most of those close shots at the rim are in transition too.
I don’t care if Iverson can make ten of eleven open court layups in the regular season against Sacramento, what can he do in the playoffs against a long, strong, rotating defense?
And of the players you brought up, Chris Kaman is too stiff to create high level offensive moves, Andrew Bogut is mediocre, Dirk is soft at the rim, as is T-MAC, as is Vince Carter. Gerald Wallace is versatile and talented but isn’t a franchise player, and Joe Johnson is essentially a jump shooter. The only surprising name on that list is Billups. Interesting. Otherwise, you’re going to need a more credible list of players than the relative stiffs and creampuffs you just mentioned.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
“Go put a body on Iverson with how recklessly he attacks the rim, and he’ll miss layup after layup.”
Put a body on Iverson, and he’ll pick himself up, go to the free throw line, and take two easy points. Among perimeter players, only 6 guys drew fouls better than Iverson last year. Lebron, Wade, Gerald Wallace, Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry and Corey Maggette. Players who had more ‘and-1’s than Iverson? There are only 3: LeBron, Dwight Howard and Amare.
“Tony Parker, in all honesty, is a better finisher than Allen Iverson.”
Tony Parker, in all honesty, is the best below the rim finisher in the game. There’s no shame in being a worse finisher than him.
“With that shooting percentage, how many shots does Iverson take at the rim that are flat out unguarded because a defense can’t handle him? Plus, most of those close shots at the rim are in transition too.
I don’t care if Iverson can make ten of eleven open court layups in the regular season against Sacramento, what can he do in the playoffs against a long, strong, rotating defense?”
Right, because Iverson is the only player in the league who gets open layups against bad teams…Of course he doesn’t make as many layups against great defensive teams. Newsflash: NOBODY DOES. LeBron is the best finisher in the game today, and he shot extremely poorly against the Spurs in the Finals, and against Boston last year. It happens, it’s what those teams do, it doesn’t mean he’s not a good finisher. Just for fun though, we’ll look at Iverson’s stats against good, average, and poor teams (according to 82games.com). Against good teams, he averaged 19.3 FGA (4th in the league), shot 46.9%, drew 10.5 FTA (2nd) and scored 27.3 PPG (3rd). All of those are higher than his marks against average and poor teams. Average: 18.7 FGA, 45.7%, 9.1 FTA, 26.6 PPG. Poor: 18.8 FGA, 44.5%, 9.3 FTA, 25.3 PPG.
“And of the players you brought up, Chris Kaman is too stiff to create high level offensive moves, Andrew Bogut is mediocre, Dirk is soft at the rim, as is T-MAC, as is Vince Carter. Gerald Wallace is versatile and talented but isn’t a franchise player, and Joe Johnson is essentially a jump shooter. The only surprising name on that list is Billups. Interesting. Otherwise, you’re going to need a more credible list of players than the relative stiffs and creampuffs you just mentioned.”
The point is not that these are all great players. The point is that they’re all either 7-footers or athletic wing players, Iverson is a 6′0 point guard. Guards, and especially guards of Iverson’s size, aren’t supposed to be great finishers around the rim, but Iverson is, despite the fact that he takes a ton of shots.