I’m not big on advanced statistics. Mainly because I feel that basketball is more art than science and there are too many unquantifiable variables. But more and more NBA teams are taking a numbers based analytical approach to basketball management. The Houston Rockets may be at the forefront of that movement. The Rockets are led by MIT educated 36-year-old stats guru Darly Morey. Not surprisingly, Morey is managing the Rockets with an “analytical emphasis.” But as Jason Friedman of Rockets.com found out when he watched a Rockets game with Director of Player Personnel Gersson Rosas, the Rockets are combining a subjective and analytical approach within their front office.
“I think we all truly value different information. We want to find out as much information as we can on a player or a situation, so we can make the best decision possible. I think the key is having an open mind on both ends. Coach has a better feel for his players and for his team overall than we could ever have. But at the same time, our focus is on posing the right questions in terms of the personnel perspective. For example, talking to our coach and staff and asking, ‘Hey, how comfortable are you with this guy? Why do you think you need or don’t need him? What do you feel about his strengths and weaknesses? Do you feel like we’ve got to upgrade here? Should we go in a different direction in terms of the type of player we have?’ So information from both perspectives is vital and feedback is exchanged in both directions.
“I think Daryl and [Vice President of Basketball Operations] Sam Hinkie, with our statistical analysis programs, get a good feel for what quantifiably is happening on the court, and then our scouts’ and coaches’ feedback play a key role in marrying the two subjects together.
“Our guys will be the first to tell you: the numbers don’t tell you everything. Basketball is still a team sport where chemistry, along with other multiple factors, makes it a challenge to put together a winning team; unfortunately numbers don’t correlate it all together. I think what makes it work for us is that Daryl is very open to the fact that we have to be balanced and as thorough as possible to cover as much information from both analytical and subjective view points. Because how well you know your team and how well you know your players can really give you a leg up when you have to make personnel decisions. You don’t want to give up a guy to a trade or free agency too early, just as you don’t want to wait too long, either, and our balance in our approach, on both ends, gives us an advantage.
“We don’t always agree on everything and we’ve had some very heated debates about drafts, trades and free agency, but you know what, the great thing about Daryl is he’ll take your input and use it. For our personnel department and as a scout that is very important. And as a result, no matter what the decision, and who’s right or wrong, at the end of the day we agree or disagree as a team and we move forward as a team. Even on the personnel side, we win and lose together as a team.”
The Rockets are taking the right approach. Advanced statistics are a tool that should be used to better understand the game. But at it’s core, basketball is a synergistic sport full of intangibles that can never be fully explained by charts, spreadsheets, or formulas.
