Advanced Stats Meet the Real World

I came across this Saturday, and since then its been linked to at virtually every NBA site in existance. Michael Lewis, the author of “Moneyball” gave readers an inside look at Rockets GM Daryl Morey’s use of statistics in his New York Times column “The No-Stats All-Star.” It’s a truly fascinating read. Lewis focuses on Rockets forward Shane Battier, whom Morey calls the “most abnormally unselfish basketball player he has ever seen.” Morey insists that Battier helps the Rockets in ways that go unnoticed to the untrained eye.

Here’s a favorite passage:

Battier’s game is a weird combination of obvious weaknesses and nearly invisible strengths. When he is on the court, his teammates get better, often a lot better, and his opponents get worse — often a lot worse. He may not grab huge numbers of rebounds, but he has an uncanny ability to improve his teammates’ rebounding. He doesn’t shoot much, but when he does, he takes only the most efficient shots. He also has a knack for getting the ball to teammates who are in a position to do the same, and he commits few turnovers. On defense, although he routinely guards the N.B.A.’s most prolific scorers, he significantly ­reduces their shooting percentages. At the same time he somehow improves the defensive efficiency of his teammates — probably, Morey surmises, by helping them out in all sorts of subtle ways. “I call him Lego,” Morey says. “When he’s on the court, all the pieces start to fit together. And everything that leads to winning that you can get to through intellect instead of innate ability, Shane excels in. I’ll bet he’s in the hundredth percentile of every category.”

There are other things Morey has noticed too, but declines to discuss as there is right now in pro basketball real value to new information, and the Rockets feel they have some. What he will say, however, is that the big challenge on any basketball court is to measure the right things. The five players on any basketball team are far more than the sum of their parts; the Rockets devote a lot of energy to untangling subtle interactions among the team’s elements. To get at this they need something that basketball hasn’t historically supplied: meaningful statistics. For most of its history basketball has measured not so much what is important as what is easy to measure — points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots — and these measurements have warped perceptions of the game. (“Someone created the box score,” Morey says, “and he should be shot.”) How many points a player scores, for example, is no true indication of how much he has helped his team. Another example: if you want to know a player’s value as a ­rebounder, you need to know not whether he got a rebound but the likelihood of the team getting the rebound when a missed shot enters that player’s zone.

Lewis goes on to tell how the Rockets keep track of opposing players’ tendencies. It’s a phenomenal read. I highly recommend you check it out. If you’ve already read it, read it again. It’s that good.

This is the kind of data I find valuable. I’ve been branded as an advanced stats “hater” because of my views on PER. But in truth, I value PER. I think it’s a good metric. I just don’t agree with the way John Hollinger uses it to compare players. There’s more to basketball than box score statistics.

I want to see real world efficacy. I want to learn from front office people who use these kinds of statistics in real NBA settings. Hopefully articles like Lewis’ will inspire more transparency and lead to a greater understanding of the game of basketball.