Steve Aschburner of SI.com wrote an interesting article today that takes a look at the minutes preps-to-pros players like Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and LeBron James have logged compared to their predecessors. Aschburner attempts to answer whether players who turned pro out of high school have added seasons to their careers or if those seasons simply won’t be there at the back end because of increased mileage.
From Aschburner:
James is a tender 24 and physically still is transforming, if not actually growing. But he already has 18,411 on his odometer, a big number even if they’re mostly highway miles. The Cleveland forward has been around long enough, playing at such a high level — five All-Star selections, perhaps a first MVP award this season, a career average of 40.6 minutes that ranks fifth in league history — that it’s fair to wonder if he’s still trending up. Or if we’ve already seen the best of him. James’ age would suggest the former, but his games log could argue the latter.
Oscar Robertson, another do-everything, statistical marvel, turned 22 early in his rookie NBA season; James turned 19 early in his. Through six seasons, Robertson was averaging a triple double: 30.4 points, 10.7 assists and 10.0 rebounds (actually 9.95, rounding up) in 460 games, based on totals of 13,998 points, 9,887 assists and 4,579 rebounds. James, with 22 games left in his sixth NBA season, is at 12,396 points (27.5), 2,989 assists (6.6) and 3,135 rebounds (7.0).
The point, though, isn’t to compare their totals or their averages. The point is to gauge where each was (or is) at, at a similar stage of his career. Robertson, through six seasons, had played 44.2 percent of his eventual 1,040 regular-season games, but he already had scored 52.4 percent of his points, dished 49.8 percent of his assists and grabbed 58.7 percent of his rebounds. His final eight seasons — which included four years as Abdul-Jabbar’s sidekick and Robertson’s lone NBA championship — were less productive (though still good enough for six All-Star trips). He averaged 21.9 points, 8.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds, worthy of a max-salary contract today but still a decline across the board personally.
It’s just enough statistical evidence to call into question those who automatically say, “Wait ’til LeBron hits his peak at age 27 or 28.” Maybe James’ peak is now, shifted earlier by his hastened … well, his hastened everything. The Cavs’ superstar got to the NBA quicker than legends of the past, developed more rapidly, learned to dominate individually sooner, figured out how to prod older teammates and found ways to win games at an earlier age than so many of his predecessors. But he also has endured more wear and tear, put in longer hours, flown more airline miles, embraced more off-court opportunities-slash-distractions and, for a few years when he might have been strolling across campus for a psychology mid-term, he was picking himself off floors in Milwaukee, Denver and Indianapolis.
I tend to believe that it’s not the age, but the mileage that matters when assessing the wear and tear on a player’s career. With that being said, I question whether a ton of minutes at the age of 23 will have lasting impact ten years down the road. I think it’s more important for a team to manage their players’ minutes as they enter the twilight of their careers, and to their credit, the Lakers and Celtics have done a good of trimming back Kobe and KG’s workloads this season.
As for guys like LeBron James and Dwight Howard, only time will tell.
March 12th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Analogies are like cars: you can only drive them so far before they run out of gas.
However, people are not cars. We do not have odometers. Some perfectly healthy people die young, others smoke all their lives and die in their 90s. Where’s the sense in that?
Cars do not get stronger with use like people can. Cars do not increase in stamina with repeated workouts. Cars don’t control their rest and “sleep” schedules, nor the “fuel” (nutrition) they take in.
It makes no sense to me to talk about age or mileage. If anything, we should be talking about genetics, personal care, coaches and teams, and health habits.
After all, game minutes are meaningless when you have a coach like Pat Riley, who is infamous for his tough practices and breaking down his players before they even got game minutes.
In fact, look at how many players are injured in practice.
And frankly, perimeter shooters aren’t going to get the banging cutters, drivers and post up players will get.
And who is assessing the difference between players who keep fit over the summer, players who yo yo their fitness back and forth, and the players who are too active in the summer playing for their national teams?
Nor can comparisons reliably be made between today’s players and the greats of yesteryear.
If today’s sports medicine existed earlier, careers of people like Oscar Robertson (and Bill Walton, etc.) could well have been longer and more productive. I don’t recall any images of Dr. J icing his knees on the bench the way Michael Jordan was doing, do you?
Even the SHOES they wear and drink technology today extends a player’s stamina.
Kareem is #2 all time in games played, and #5 all time in free throws attempted (9,304). In other words, he took a beating night after night and still had a long career. Meanwhile, you have to wonder if Greg Oden’s career will ever get going.
Again, while minutes played and age are certainly factors, they are just two variables in a formula that may have hundreds, many of them more significant than minutes and age. And again, genetics, personal care, nutrition, sleep habits, role on the team, style of the team and coach, practice routines, workout routines, summer routines… all these are variables of equal or perhaps more affect on a player’s longevity.
While it may be interesting to theoretically speculate as to what LeBron James career may end up being like, when he will peak, how long it may last — and I would LOVE to see a serious study made of these factors on the entire body of former and current NBA players… seriously, at this point it is pretty much a waste of time.
It’s just not that simple.
March 12th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Besides, it’s not like the non-preps to pros players were sitting on the couch sipping V8s when they were ages 18 through 22… they were logging minutes and wear and tear as well.
In fact, many preps to pros players, like Kobe Bryant, weren’t starters when they got to the NBA. It is entirely possible he would have had more wear and tear on his body those same years if he were a starter at Duke instead.
It just makes no sense to me to choose 2 variables, minutes and age, and focus on them as if the hundreds of other very relevant variables didn’t exist.
March 12th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Great points Tom. But it’s pretty tough to quantify many of the variables you mentioned.
Let’s use practice time as an example. I doubt many NBA teams keep track of the amount of time players spend running up and down the floor during practice or simulating game situations (although they probably should).
I’d love to see a study like the one you hinted at too, but I still think columns like Aschburner’s have value.