News that the Milwaukee Bucks decided not to extend a qualifying offer to Charlie Villanueva yesterday was met with the widespread speculation that the Cavaliers would target the talented free agent forward. The Cavaliers, who have their mid-level exception, could tender an offer to Villanueva as early as Wednesday, but the decision would leave them with little cap space next summer. The always excellent Waiting For Next Year breaks down the Cavs’ cap situation:
For Danny Ferry’s part, he has to weigh the long term ramifications of signing a player like Villanueva. Assuming Ferry signs CV for the full Mid Level Exception, and then re-signs Anderson Varejao using his Bird Rights, the Cavaliers will essentially be eliminating any chance of having enough cap space to offer a max level deal to a superstar like Chris Bosh.
The question is whether or not that’s really a realistic goal for the Cavaliers anyway. In the past when we were projecting that the Cavaliers would have a ton of cap space in 2010, we were basing it on a $60+ million salary cap. That’s not going to happen anymore. We’re still waiting to see what the cap number is for next season, but projections actually have it slightly decreasing, but many experts expect 2010 to be the offseason when the economic decline really hits the cap space. As we discussed prior to the trade deadline, ESPN’s John Hollinger has projected a 2010 cap number as low as $55.2 million. We went a little more optimistic in our projections and went with $56.93 million. If we can assume that’s the cap figure, the Cavs roster in that offseason would be:
- Mo Williams – $9,300,000
- Delonte West – $4,658,500 (only $500,000 guaranteed)
- Daniel Gibson – $4,015,334
- JJ Hickson (team option) – $1,528,920
- Darnell Jackson – $854,389 (fully unguaranteed)
- Danny Green – ~$730,000 (approximated)
That’s a total of only $21,087,143. If you include LeBron’s “cap hold” of $16,073,488 (based on a $56.93 million cap figure), the Cavalier’s salary goes to $37,160,631, leaving them with $19,769,369. The Cavaliers have already said they want to re-sign Anderson Varejao anyway, and if his salary in 2010 is even $7 million, that already knocks the Cavaliers’ cap space down to close to $13 million, which isn’t enough to offer anyone else a max contract.
WFNY also details Villanueva’s strengths and weaknesses. It’s well worth the read. I like Villlanueva’s game, but this is a band aid solution that will only compromise Cleveland’s future roster flexibility.
