That’s just not true. Most of Orlando’s offensive possessions (I’d say 70-30) were initiated by high screen/rolls, which just so happen to be Shaq’s Achilles heel.

You said, “He is effective when he gets the ball in position to score near the low post. He shot a career high last year in FG% largely because opposing teams stopped doubling him. Guess what, in the LeBron era, opposing teams have NEVER doubled any Cav other than LeBron.”

…And that’s not going to change next season either. I don’t think you’ve watched Shaq over the last two or three seasons. He doesn’t command double-teams anymore. And it has nothing to do with his shooting percentage. He’s still a go-to-guy in the post. It’s all about minutes. Opposing teams can let Shaq get his 17 and 8 over the course of 30 minutes, because that means his teammates are forced to stand around and watch as he goes to work down low.

You know who else is a great entry-passer? Steve Nash. This has nothing to do with position or passing. Shaq got plenty of touches in Phoenix, and he’ll get plenty of touches in Cleveland, but he isn’t going to create space for LeBron. “He’s just not.”

I get why Cavs fans are so excited about Shaq. But the fact is, for all the positives he’ll likely bring, he brings a boatload of negatives, too.

This is one of those debates that’s going nowhere. We’ll see what happens next season.

JJ Hickson:

%att eFG% ast’d %blk’d pts
60% .655 71% 16% 2.5
Joe Smith:
46% .698 65% 13% 3.5
Ben Wallace:
75% .534 63% 8% 2.2
Zydrunas Ilgauskas:
35% .560 49% 9% 4.3
Anderson Varejao
59% .671 79% 8% 4.9
Shaq:
72% .699 63% 4% 11.3

Shaq had the highest eFG%, despite being assisted to the LEAST, and had by far the lowest % of shots blocked. To say nothing that he had the most attempts from inside.

All those numbers indicate to me, that Shaq is going to be a major upgrade down low for the Cavs, to say nothing of the reason they went out and got him in the FIRST PLACE – to keep Howard from getting low post position.

Look, you can make the case all day the Cavs had trouble against long wing players – but they beat up on plenty of teams that had long wing players. They completely shut down Joe Johnson, and Tayshaun Prince, and they’ve had their way with the NON LA/Orlando/Houston teams in the regular season. I watched those games against LA – they lost the one game because Lamar Odom made 37 layups, not because long wing defenders were stroking 3s. Howard was THE REASON the Cavs lost to the Magic. It was inside-outside-swing passing that killed the Cavs, but it always started with Howard. When the chose not to double him, like game 1 – Howard went 14-20 from the field. He’s not going to go 14-20 against Shaq. He’s just not.

As far as Boston is concerned – I don’t think they can beat the Cavs. The Cavs have always defended Ray Allen well and there is no one on the Celtics that can guard LeBron. Not to mention they can’t double and triple team him like they did in ‘07. I don’t think they are better this year than ‘07 and the Cavs are world’s better. KG’s injury/age will hamper him, and I’m not sure you can make the argument that Sheed still has it in the tank and Shaq doesn’t.

Here’s the other thing about Shaq. He is effective when he gets the ball in position to score near the low post. He shot a career high last year in FG% largely because opposing teams stopped doubling him. Guess what, in the LeBron era, opposing teams have NEVER doubled any Cav other than LeBron. And LeBron is probably the best entry-passer in the league with his combination of height and court vision – coupled with the fact that he’s ambidexterous. 80% of Anderson Varejao’s baskets came off assists – the vast majority of those were from LeBron. Shaq is going to get the ball in good position to score, and unlike Z, Varejao, Big Ben, and Joe Smith…Shaq FINISHES plays.

I just think all things being equal, every team being healthy, the Cavs are the best team in the East. Orlando second, Boston 3rd.

Howard shot .594 from the free throw line during the regular season. He shot .701 (47-67) from the stripe during the conference finals. If he shoots 40-for-67 (59.7%) against the Cavaliers, he basically matches his regular season mark. That’s 7 free throws. His free-throw shooting wasn’t the deciding factor my friend.

- It wasn’t the initial pass out from Howard that hurt the Cavaliers, it was the second or third ball reversal that resulted in so many open looks from beyond the arc. There were a TON of defensive breakdowns.

- You said, “I don’t believe for a second that Shaq is a good defensive player. But just like Kendrick Perkins, he’s big, and he wont allow Howard to get low post position. Unlike Gasol, who can score from any position, Howard becomes superman when he can muscle his way into dunk territory. He’s quite ordinary outside that zone.”

That’s true. But I think Howard is going to improve by leaps and bounds this summer. Orlando will feed Howard on the move, and they’ll involve Shaq in as many pick-and-rolls as possible.

- You know I never bought into the widespread belief that Cleveland was the team to beat. They were certainly contenders, but their inability to beat the league’s elite teams (consistently) always spoke volumes to me. Orlando and LA manhandled Cleveland throughout the season. I think Boston, with a healthy KG, could have given the Cavs a run for their money as well.

- I agree that Shaq is an upgrade over Ben Wallace, but I thought Wallace was very underrated. He was an excellent team defender, and he was very good at defending the pick-and-roll.

- One more thing, and it’s something I’ll elaborate on more when I write my column on the Shaq trade, but I don’t understand why the Cavaliers “needed” to get a low-post scorer. They have LEBRON JAMES! I keep reading about how James is planning on putting up so many jumpers this summer. Get him on the block! He SHOULD be a dominant low-post scorer, and acquiring Shaq will only delay what I believe is the most important aspect of LeBron’s development.

- I think the Cavs improved, but I truly believe that Boston will be the team to beat in the East. Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins will only continue to improve, Sheed will be motivated (and he still has a lot left in the tank — unlike Shaq), and Pierce and Allen have one more run in them.

IT’s going to be hard though. If you thought LeBron was on a mission last year…

the last 2 years we’ve heard his numbers being called “historic”

His efficiency this year could be through the roof with Shaq FINISHING his entry passes and lobs.

When the Cavs didn’t double Howard, he dominated. When they did, he kicked out and yes, they were unable to guard Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Rafer Alston banking in 3s didn’t help. Nor did Michael Pietrus’ ridiculous display of unconsious shooting.

I don’t believe for a second that Shaq is a good defensive player. But just like Kendrick Perkins, he’s big, and he wont allow Howard to get low post position. Unlike Gasol, who can score from any position, Howard becomes superman when he can muscle his way into dunk territory. He’s quite ordinary outside that zone.

It wasn’t so much Howard’s scoring as it was Howard’s efficiency. The Cavs had no choice but to double him, especially after the game 2 FT fiasco. Their strategy that game was to foul him anytime he got low post position. Except, he hit his FT. So in game 4 they decided to double again, and AGAIN, Lewis, Pietrus, Turk went off.

The Cavs were easily the best team in the NBA going into the Conference Finals. They won 66 games and had HCA in a year when teams were really gunning for that. They lost because of match up issues – and I think they’ve addressed them nicely already.

THey’ve NEVER had a low post scorer – now they do. They’ve never had a big body to guard Howard/Bynum/Perkins/Yao

This year they were very undersized in the backcourt. Their defensive strategy is based on “textbook” rotations and help defense, which they orchestrated to perfect against most of the teams in the league. Against the Magic’s shooters – it was completely innocuous. They drafted a pure defender in Danny Green, and signed Anthony Parker, a tall, big, crafty defender. ANd even if they hadn’t – the Cavs have had plenty of success against Vince Carter in the past. Not so much against Hedo Turkoglu.

I’m just saying: 66 win team, upgraded 2 positions, addressed 2 match up issues….

Everyone is raving about the moves the Lakers and Magic made. While I totally agree, the Lakers got better with ARtest and the Magic got better with Bass and Carter – the Cavs didn’t LOSE anything. THe Magic lost Alston (who KILLED the Cavs), Lee, and Turk. The Lakers lost Ariza (which may or may not come back to haunt them). The Cavs lost Ben Wallace (a complete non factor in teh playoffs) and Sasha Pavlovic (a complete non factor all season).

The Cavs were the only team that added a 2009 all-star to their team….

I don’t think Howard’s FT shooting was the deciding factor.

He only attempted two free throws in Orlando’s Game 1 win. His 14-for-19 mark doesn’t really account for Orlando’s 10-point victory in Game 3 either. You can make an argument that Howard’s 7-for-9 shooting determined the outcome of Game 4, but I’m not buying it.

I’ve been meaning to address this in a post analyzing the Shaq trade, but like Jeff Van Gundy, I believe Cleveland’s inability to defend Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu hurt them more than Howard’s scoring.

The Cavs didn’t double Howard often enough, and their double-teams were poorly orchestrated.

The Lakers doubled Howard from every angle imaginable, and their perimeter rotations were textbook. L.A. proved that you don’t need a dominant low-post defender to stop Dwight Howard. A sound defensive strategy will suffice.

Shaquille O’Neal will not stop Dwight Howard with single coverage. He may slow him down some, but O’Neal won’t be a difference-maker on the defensive end. Shaq has been a defensive liability for years. I don’t know why the Cavaliers are expecting him to become a factor defensively at this stage of his career.

I’m leaning toward the Celtics in the East. I think Rasheed Wallace will have a banner year for Boston. He and KG will cause all sorts of matchup problems for the Cavs and Magic.

If Howard shoots his normal FT% against the Cavs then Cleveland wins that series.

There are a million other strange things that happened in that series – it’s definitely not worth discussing all of them.

But consider this.

Are the Magic better? Yes.

Are the Cavs better? Yes.

Are the Magic a better MATCH UP against the Cavs? No.

Are the Cavs a better MATCH UP against the Magic? Yes.

Vince Carter will not pose a match up problem with the Cavs backcourt defenders: Parker/West

Dwight Howard is still a beast, but he will have to put up his beastly numbers against 1 defender (shaq), not two or three.

Lastly, the Cavs finally have a legitimate low post scoring option in Shaq.

They improved a 66 win team at two positions, SG and C. And both improvements were also match up improvements against Orlando.

Today Hollinger said the Magic are def the team to beat. I’m not sure I agree – even though I still haven’t completely come out from under my Cavs rock. On PAPER (I mean, it’s Cleveland…so expect the worst to happen) the Cavs appear stronger to me.