Philadelphia 76ers

Coach: Eddie Jordan
2007-08 Record: 41-41
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 41-41
Offensive Rating: 107.9 (19^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 107.8(13^th)
Possessions per 48: 90.0 (21^st)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie) Click to enlarge

What happened to Samuel Dalembert last year? I mean, he’s never been a particularly good offensive player, but he was absolutely abysmal last season. On the plus side, his defensive numbers were actually better, and that’s what his real value is. Quality defensive centers are so valuable, if he can at least approach being mediocre on offense, he’s a quality player. A grossly overpaid player, yes, but still a guy who can contribute.

So far in his career, Thaddeus Young has been much more effective as a power forward than as a small forward, on the offensive end at least. However, I think his long-term future is at small forward, especially since this team has Dalembert, Elton Brand and Marreese Speights to give minutes to in the frontcourt. Young has all the tools, he just needs to work on his jumper. Right now, he really thrives just using his elite combination of strength and quickness to get to the rim, where he’s an excellent finisher. A lot of this team’s success is going to depend on how much Young improves his skill level.

Well, the Elton Brand experiment didn’t get off to such a great start. Even before he lost most of the season to injury, things weren’t working out well. Because the Sixers had no good shooters last year, the lack of floor spacing made it difficult to get anything going in the post. I still think Brand will work out better than what we saw last year, though he’s probably not going to return to his pre-injury form. If they play significant stretches with Brand at center and Young at power forward, I think they can get out and run and take advantage of mismatches.

Jason Kapono fills a huge void for this Philly team. If you remember a few years back, Utah traded for Kyle Korver to add a shooter, and it made a huge difference in their offense. Kapono could have a similar impact here. He’s a tremendous shooter, and certainly better than anyone the Sixers had last year. His problem has always been that he doesn’t have a great feel for where the three-point line is, often taking long two-point jumpers from right inside the line. Shooting 42% is great if you’re getting 3 for each make, not so much if you’re getting 2. Still, he’ll help them space the floor, and that alone should improve their offense by leaps and bounds.

There are lots of seriously overpaid players on this roster, but Andre Iguadola isn’t one of them. He’s a guy who does a little bit of everything, plays fantastic defense, and he’s continued to get better every season. He’s not a first-option, carry the team scorer yet, but he’s an efficient offensive player, mostly because he’s so great at getting out in transition and he’s a great finisher. In fact, I knew Iguadola was a good finisher, but I was surprised to see that he finished 72.1% of his shots around the rim, the best percentage in the league. He’s still not a very good shooter, but he’s an all star-caliber player right now, and he’s shown that he’ll put in the work to get better. That’s not a bad guy to have as part of your team’s foundation.

X-Factor: Louis Williams – In my Eastern Conference Preview, Williams was the player I picked to have a breakout season, and I think whether he does or not is the key to Philly’s season. He takes over Andre Miller’s spot, and that’s big shoes to fill, but he has the talent to do it. He’ll be 23 this season, and he was a really prolific scorer when he was on the floor last year. He’s still got to work on his decision-making and he’ll have to focus on being more of a distributor, but his quickness really makes him a weapon. Even though he’s not a great shooter, he gets into the lane basically at will, which puts him at the free throw line an absurd amount. He was much more effective last year when he played point guard, and if he plays to his potential, he could really take this team to another level. On the other hand, if he fails, the only other options are Willie Green or rookie Jrue Holiday, and that’s not going to get you very far.

Overview

I honestly have no idea what to make of this team. On the one hand, they had definite chemistry issues trying to integrate Brand into the lineup last year, and they lost their starting point guard. On the other hand, there is a ton of youth, talent and athleticism on the roster, Brand is back, and they finally got a competent shooter. In the end, there’s too much talent for me to think that this team won’t make the playoffs. Iguadola, Young, Williams and Speights are all exceptional young talents, and Brand should be more effective this year.  They should be solid defensively and somewhat limited offensively, just like they were last year. A lot of the burden offensively will fall on Williams, but if he’s good, then the offense has the potential to improve despite the loss of Andre Miller. The season’s success will largely rest on how much the young guys improve, but they should be a playoff team at very least.

6th in the East – Solid, Not Great