Toronto Raptors

Coach: Jay Triano
2007-08 Record: 33-49
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 33-49
Offensive Rating: 107.0 (22^nd in the league)
Defensive Rating: 111.0(22^nd)
Possessions per 48: 92.0 (14^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie) Click to enlarge

You knew somebody was going to overpay Hedo Turkoglu after Orlando went to the Finals, and sure enough, the Raptors did. Now, I don’t think Turkoglu is a bad player, but I do think he’s wildly overrated. He had a career year in 07-08, and then fell back to his career norm last year, only nobody seemed to notice that drop-off. I think people get caught up in the fact that Turkoglu is a unique player, and overlook his flaws. Yes, he has excellent ball-handling skills for a 6′10 guy, but the fact remains that those skills don’t make up for his lack of quickness, and he has trouble consistently getting to the rim. As a result, he takes a lot of difficult shots and long two-pointers, and it really hurts his efficiency. Couple that with the fact that he’s 30 years old and moving from a very good team to a bad team, and I think we’re going to see him get exposed a bit this year.

I really like that they brought in Amir Johnson, he brings something that this team hasn’t had for a while. He’s a young athlete with plenty of room to grow, and he immediately brings rebounding and shotblocking, which the Raptors desperately need. We’ll see how much burn he gets playing with Bosh, Bargnani and Nesterovic, but if I were Toronto, I’d be giving him a long, hard look.

Let’s play a round of everyone’s favorite game, “Guess That Statline!”

50.3% FG, 43.9% 3FG, 93.3% FT, 56.6% eFG, 42.4 AST%, 3.4 TO/g

49.7% FG, 40.6% 3FG, 98.1% FT, 56.1% eFG, 41.0 AST%, 2.1 TO/g

The bottom line is Toronto’s own Jose Calderon. The top line? Perennial all star Steve Nash. Now, Nash carries a bit larger load than Calderon does, but not by all that much. It kind of baffles me that Calderon doesn’t get more attention. He’s been consistently brilliant the last two years, even if his team hasn’t been. He’s not a good defender, but he’s a great shooter, a great distributor, and never makes mistakes. He’s never mentioned as a top point guard, and he really should be.

I like the acquisition of Belinelli, he fits well with the model Toronto is building here. He hasn’t done much the last couple years other than carve up some summer league games, but Golden State isn’t exactly the best place for player development. He’s really a tremendous shooter, and he should thrive off the drive and kick of Calderon and Turkoglu.

I’m not sure what to say about Chris Bosh. He’s a great player, you all know that. He’s 25 and he’s been a sure fire All-Star for four seasons, but he also hasn’t made a whole lot of improvement over those last 4 years. He’s an extremely versatile scorer who can score facing up from mid-range or in the low post. There are few players in the league who have his arsenal of fakes, spins and up-and-unders. Still, his lack of strength keeps him from being a great rebounder and finisher, and that’s what keeps him from being a true top-tier player.

X-Factor: Andrea Bargnani – He was my X-Factor for this team last year, and he is again this year. If there was one positive thing to come from the Raptors’ dismal season last year, it was Bargnani’s improvement. He’d been extremely disappointing for two years, and last year he actually looked like an NBA player. Especially encouraging is how strongly he finished the season, including a torrid March where he averaged 20 PPG and shot over 50% from both the field and the three-point line. If he can maintain that level of play for this season, Toronto has a chance to be a real offensive powerhouse. Bargnani has the size, shooting stroke, and ball skills to be a matchup nightmare, and if he puts it all together he may finally live up to that #1 pick they spent on him.

Overview

This is such an odd and intriguing team. I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen with these guys. They could be an offensive powerhouse and end up 4th or 5th in the East, or they could be a mess of chemistry issues and have the bottom fall out. The front office seemed to say “well, we’re not a good defensive team anyway, lets just collect as many shooters as we possibly can.” They kept the core of Bosh, Calderon and Bargnani, but basically turned the rest of the roster over, and the 4 guys they brought in who will probably play the most (Turkoglu, Jarrett Jack, Bellinelli, Rasho Nesterovic) are all good to great shooters for their position. Now, none of these guys are particularly good defenders, and a team that was 22nd defensively last year lost its best defenders (Anthony Parker and O’Neal/Marion) in the offseason. So, the Raptors are going to stop no one, but the question remains as to whether they can score enough to make up for it. Well, if nothing else, they’ll be intriguing to watch.

9th in the East – The Wild Cards

BallerBlogger contributing writer ‘xphoenix87′ is a college student who dreams of one day writing about sports for a living. Since that’s not gonna happen, he’ll do this instead.