Dallas Mavericks

Coach: Rick Carlisle
2007-08 Record: 50-32
Pythagorean Record for 07-08: 47-35
Offensive Rating: 110.5 (5^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 108.4 (17^th)
Possessions per 48: 91.5 (16^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie) Click to enlarge

I really thought Jason Kidd was done last year, but he shot the ball so well from deep that he was able to effectively transition to being a quality role player. Still, I can’t see him keeping up that level this year. Other than his much-improved stand still jumper, every other facet of his game declined last year. His assist rate dropped off (though his turnover rate is still absurdly high), and his rebound rate fell below 10% for the first time since 03-04. Great as Kidd has been throughout his career, there’s only so much fighting Father Time you can do. He’s showing definite signs of decline, and it’s unrealistic to think that he’ll repeat his shooting percentages from last year. He might surprise again, but there’s a good chance that we see a big drop-off from Kidd this year.

I don’t know if people realize just how good Jason Terry is. He’s not often mentioned among the league’s best shooters, because he does most of his damage in the mid-range. Last year he led the league in FG% on two-point jump shots, which is where the bulk of his shot attempts come from. With Kidd taking on a lesser load and Josh Howard injured almost half the year, Dallas really asked a lot from Terry last season, and he delivered brilliantly. His offensive efficiency barely dropped as he took on the bigger load, and his play is one of the big reasons Dallas had the 5th best offense in the league. Terry is an unusual player, and it makes it tough to predict how his game is going to age. He’s small and quick, but unlike most guards of his physical profile, he doesn’t use that speed to get to the rim very often. Quick, small guards usually fall off pretty quickly in their early-to-mid thirties since they depend so much on their quickness, but Terry’s shooting ability may allow him to extend his career. I don’t think we’ll see much drop-off from him this year, but he is 32, and it’s something Dallas has to be a little worried about.

Dirk Nowitzki is an amazing player, and everyone knows how good a shooter he is, but he doesn’t get enough credit for how well he takes care of the ball. For the last 5 years, he’s carried the Mavericks, and not once has he posted a turnover rate above 10%. That’s absurd. Last year, he had a usage rate over 30%, and a turnover rate below 8% for the second time in his career. There’s only one other guy who’s ever done that. You may have heard of him, goes by the name Jordan. Now, that being said, Dirk has fallen off a good bit from his MVP season in 06-07. Most noticeably, his rebounding and ability to get to the free throw line have fallen off, and that’s a worrying trend. Dirk’s still an elite player, but he’s starting to show the wear and tear of 11 NBA seasons.

Since leaving Phoenix, Shawn Marion has really struggled, and I don’t know if going to Dallas is going to help rejuvenate his career. More than anyone else, he really benefited from playing alongside Steve Nash, and while playing with a pass-first point guard should help, Kidd isn’t Nash, especially not at this point in his career. Marion has never been a very skilled player, always depending heavily on his athleticism, and as yet another Mav on the wrong side of 30, that fact is, again, worrying. Marion offers versatility, but I’m not sure he’s any better than Brandon Bass, the forward they got rid of.

X-Factor: Josh Howard – While struggling with injuries last year, Howard understandably had a pretty down season. As one of three guys on the roster who can consistently create a good shot for himself, he’s a crucial part of the Mavs’ offense. More than that though, Howard is a very solid perimeter defender when he’s healthy, and that’s something Dallas needs after dropping from 9th to 17th defensively last season. He’s always been somewhat fragile though, and he’ll have to come back healthy and stay that way if Dallas wants to succeed this year.

Overview

Dallas is kind of an offensive oddity. They were the league’s 5th best offensive team last year, but they did it in a very unique way. Generally speaking, the most efficient ways to score in basketball are three-point shots, layups and free throws. Mid-range jumpers are the least efficient shots. 48% of Dallas’s shots were two-point jumpers (4th in the league), 27% were shots around the rim (30th), they shot 35% from deep (25th) and drew fouls on only 10% of their shot attempts (28th). So how did the Mavericks manage to be such a strong offensive team? Two things. First, they led the league with a blistering 44.4% on two-point jump shots, 2.2% higher than the 2nd-place Spurs (2.2 doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s a massive amount when talking about field goal percentages). Second, they very rarely turned the ball over, ranking 3rd in the league in turnover rate. That unique offense should be just as good this year, if not better with Howard coming back from injury.  It’s the defense that will likely be Dallas’s problem. They brought in Marion to improve the D, but with an aging roster full of guys who aren’t exactly defensive stalwarts, I don’t know if it’s going to be enough. They’re trying to prop open their window, but the fact is that this team hasn’t been a title contender for a couple years, and they won’t be this year.

7th in the West – Potential Spoilers