Coach: Scott Skiles
2008-09 Record: 34-48
Pythagorean Record for 08-09: 38-44
Offensive Rating: 106.7 (23^rd in the league)
Defensive Rating: 107.9 (15^th)
Possessions per 48: 92.6 (11^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie) Click to enlarge

Yikes, this roster is bad. It’s amazing to think that over the last two years, this team has lost Charlie Villanueva, Ramon Sessions, Mo Williams and Richard Jefferson, and has nothing but salary savings to show for it. If they dump Michael Redd for an expiring contract during the year (a distinct possibility), it would be an almost unprecedented level of straight salary dumping.

Despite that, there is some talent on this roster. I think Andrew Bogut is someone they can build around. He’s shown flashes of being an All-Star caliber center, but he has yet to put it all together in one season. Last year, before his back injury, Bogut had shown marked improvement in his shooting percentages and rebounding, but had also seen a huge increase in his turnover numbers. Healthy again this year, if he can maintain that rebounding intensity and finishing touch, but cut down on his turnovers, he can be a real game-changer. The Bucks need that more than ever, because with a roster short on talent, Bogut will be called on to carry a bigger load than he ever has.

I liked the Carlos Delfino pickup. He’s not a game-changer, but he was cheap, and he’s a very good wing reserve with some solid play-making ability. He had shown constant improvement in his 4 NBA seasons before playing in Europe last year, so he could turn out to be a really nice, risk-free pickup.

Looking back on it, I’m actually a little embarrassed that I didn’t have Luc Richard Mbah a Moute on one of my All-Rookie teams last year. Sure, he doesn’t give you anything offensively, but how many rookies come into the league as not just good defenders, but dominant defenders? He’s never going to be a real offensive option, but there’s a reason he played 26 minutes a game last year. He’s so versatile defensively that he’s going to have a role with this team going forward, whether it’s starting or off the bench. He has the quickness, size and strength combination to guard nearly anyone, and he learned how from Ben Howland at UCLA, one of the best defensive coaches in the college game.

I like Michael Redd, but he’s been falling off noticeably for the last two years, and that’s without considering the injury. Coming off a serious knee surgery, he’s probably still going to be a great shooter, but he’s no longer the elite scoring option that he was a few years ago. As the Bucks try to rebuild, it’s likely that we’ll see Redd shopped around at the trade deadline, especially if they get off to a bad start. There are plenty of teams out there who would love to add a deadeye shooting guard with Redd’s talent, and I have to imagine that it wouldn’t take much more than expiring contracts and a few prospects/draft picks to pry him away from the cash-strapped Bucks.

I think that Milwaukee grabbing Hakim Warrick for one year for $3 mil was one of the more underrated signings of the offseason. There’s no long-term harm if he doesn’t work out, and it’s not every day that you can grab a talented post scorer for so cheap. Warrick’s strong play was actually one of the few bright spots during the Grizzlies’ miserable season last year. Over the last three years, he’s shown himself to be a really effective scorer, mostly because he draws fouls and gets to the free throw line at an absurd rate. His quickness and athleticism makes him a really tough cover for opposing PFs, especially when he faces up, and that results in a lot of free throws. The big knock against Warrick, though, is that he doesn’t have the strength or disposition to be much of a factor defensively, or on the glass. However, Scott Skiles is a defense-first coach, and Warrick certainly has the athletic ability to be a good defender. If Skiles can help him improve that part of his game, Warrick may be a great find for this team.

Well, we didn’t learn much about Joe Alexander last year, other than the fact that Skiles didn’t trust him with significant minutes. That’s not a terrible surprise though, since we knew Alexander was more of a long-term prospect. His basketball knowledge was very limited before he got to West Virginia, and though he received some excellent coaching there, it’s no surprise he struggled to adapt to the speed of the NBA game. He’s a tremendous athlete though, and a very hard worker, if reports are to be believed. A lot of people are decrying this as a wasted pick already, but I’m a little less pessimistic. I still think Alexander can be a player at this level, and if nothing else he’s got the tools and mentality to be a defensive standout. He hurt his hamstring in the preseason, but if he recovers quickly there should be some playing time available to him with Richard Jefferson out of the picture. He’s one of the few young players on this team with real potential, so if I were the Bucks I’d be giving him plenty of chances to prove himself.

X-Factor: Brandon Jennings – It seems a little odd to be calling a 20 year old, rookie point guard the X-Factor for a team, but how Jennings plays is key for this Bucks squad, both for this year and the future. He obviously has tremendous physical gifts, no one doubts that. He should get plenty of chances to prove himself, since he is the future of the team, and frankly, Milwaukee’s other point guard options suck. If Jennings shows that he can rein in some of his wilder tendencies and be mature enough to quarterback a team, then the Bucks could potentially make some noise. It’s a lot to ask of a young guy, but Jennings certainly has the confidence already. If his game matches his ego, then the Bucks have a chance. If not? Well, the rebuilding could take a good bit longer.

Overview

As bad as the Bucks are (and the Bucks are pretty bad), there’s talent on the roster, and if they go into full-out rebuild mode, they could turn things around pretty soon. With a core of Jennings, Bogut and Mbah a Moute, along with Alexander and whatever they can get if they trade Redd, there’s a foundation to build on, and they’ll likely have a high pick in next year’s draft. The future looked a lot brighter when Ramon Sessions was on the roster, and for the life of me I cannot understand why they let him get away, but whatever. I do question if Scott Skiles is the right coach to head up this group. He really prefers playing veterans over younger player, and the Bucks need to develop their young guys if they want to succeed any time in the near future. If Skiles chooses to play all his veterans, and the Bucks don’t trade Redd, then they’ll be a mediocre-to-bad team in the middle of the Eastern Conference, and basically sacrifice future development for a few meaningless wins.

13th in the East – The Wasteland