Coach: Nate McMillan
2008-09 Record: 54-28
Pythagorean Record for 08-09: 56-26
Offensive Rating: 113.9 (1st in the league)
Defensive Rating: 107.8 (13th)
Possessions per 48: 86.6 (30th)
Four Factors:
|
eFG% |
TOV% |
RB% |
FT/FGA |
|
| Offensive | 51.1 (8th) | .125 (7th) | .326 (1st) | .234 (17th) |
| Defensive | 49.9 (14th) | .132 (12th) | .750 (6th) | .227 (12th) |
Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie) Click to enlarge
Despite the fact that he made second team All-NBA last year, I still don’t think people realize that Brandon Roy is a bona-fide NBA superstar. In fact, check out the following two statlines (yes, that’s right, it’s another round of “Guess That Statline!”):
78 GP, 37.2 MPG, 22.6 PPG, 27.4 USG%, 123 ORtg
78 GP, 38.5 MPG, 22.8 PPG, 27.5 USG%, 124 ORtg
The top line is Roy. The second line? All-World point guard Chris Paul. They go about their business in very different ways, but statistically they’re basically equal in offensive proficiency. Roy gets overlooked because he’s not flashy, and the things that make him special are very subtle. Basically, he’s really good at everything,
and he’s really smart about using that to his advantage. He’s an excellent shooter, he’s a very effective ball-handler, he’s got plus floor vision, he can finish, and he almost never turns the ball over. His ability to change speeds, and the way he uses it, makes him a really tough cover. Roy is one of my favorite players in the league to watch, and at 25 he has plenty of time to improve.
On the plus side, LaMarcus Aldridge is a very good offensive player. He’s a great complimentary post player because he spreads the floor (he hit 41.8% on two-point jumpers last year), and he rarely turns the ball over (8th lowest turnover rate in the league). On the negative side, he’s kind of a pansy sometimes. Despite his physical tools and high skill level, Aldridge often shies away from contact and doesn’t always give a consistent effort on defense. With his athleticism and length, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be a better rebounder and shotblocker, and he has quickness and ball-handling skills for his size that should result in more free throws. He’s a perfectly good player, but he has the talent to do more, and he’s not going to realize that potential unless he becomes a more physical player.
The position to watch in Portland this year is small forward. With Nicolas Batum, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, and Rudy Fernandez on the roster, there’s an excess of talent, and not nearly enough minutes to go around. I think that Webster might end up being the guy who gets pushed out. He’s recovering from injury and, frankly, he hasn’t been very good even when he is healthy. The problem is that he’s signed for the next 4 years, and it’s hard to just give up on that. Batum will earn minutes and likely be the starter again since he’s the team’s top perimeter defender, and a good enough shooter that you have to respect him on offense. It’s also likely that Outlaw will spend a good chuck of time playing power forward this year. With Channing Frye gone, some minutes open up for a backup PF, and since minutes at SF are going to be crowded, we’ll probably see Outlaw get some face time at PF.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Fernandez played a lot as a guard last year, but Andre Miller’s arrival means less minutes to go around in the backcourt, which will push Fernandez to the forward spot more often. Confused yet? I am. I do not envy Nate McMillan’s job of sorting out playing time for this roster. However, as problems go, an excess of talent is a pretty good one to have. The bevy of forwards does offer a lot of versatility, since each guy really brings something unique to the table. Batum is the defensive stopper. Outlaw is a natural scorer who can create his own shot against pretty much anyone. Fernandez is constant energy, running transition and weaving through screens to get open looks or alley-oops, Webster is a shooting specialist. Each brings a different look, and it allows the Blazers to be very versatile in their lineups.
It’s also going to be interesting to see what happens with Miller. You don’t usually sign a guy for $7 mil a year to have him come off the bench, but that might be what Portland did. Word is, the Blazers are sticking with Steve Blake as the starting point guard because of how he meshes with the rest of the starting lineup. It’s a decision that makes a lot of sense actually, as Blake’s shooting and sound decision-making really complement a lineup with Roy and Aldridge on the floor, and Miller fits better as a guy who can make plays 
on the second unit. He’s going to add a different dimension to this team, and that’s speed. The Blazers, despite their youth, were the slowest paced team in the league last year. Miller is a great fast-break point guard, and with guys like Aldridge, Batum and Fernandez (three guys who run in transition as well as anyone), they could get a lot of easy points that way. They’re not going to be the Suns or the Warriors, but Miller should pick the pace up a bit.
X-Factor: Greg Oden – Do people realize that Greg Oden actually had a really good rookie season when he wasn’t injured? In fact, considering the time he missed, and the fact that he was coming off major knee surgery, what Oden did is nothing short of great. He shot 56% from the field, posted an extremely high rebound rate, and blocked a fair number of shots. Even the things that he was pretty bad at (turnovers, fouls) are things that young big men often struggle with and should improve significantly with an extra year of experience. The first question with Oden is always going to be his health. If he stays healthy, the next question is if Oden can regain the kind of defensive dominance that he displayed in college. He was a good shotblocker last year, but he has a lot more potential than he showed. If Oden has gotten healthier and adjusted to the speed of the game, he could be the dominant defensive force that Portland so desperately needs.
Overview
There are an awful lot of things I like about this squad. They’re a young team that plays with the maturity of an old team. Their biggest problem is that they have too much talent on the roster. Nate McMillan is a terrific coach. They led the league in offensive rating last year. Almost everyone on the roster is still growing and getting better. What isn’t there to like about these guys? Well, for one, they weren’t a very good defensive team last year. They ranked 13th in the league in defensive efficiency, and that’s where Oden comes in. If, and it’s a big if, Oden becomes that defensive force many think he can be, then there’s no reason the Blazers can’t be contenders. They were the second best team in the West in the regular season last year (by a significant margin), with the point differential of a 56 win team. There’s no reason to think any of the players will fall off, and a lot of reasons to think that those players are going to get better. If even one of the Blazers young guys makes a substantial jump (and there are several who could), they’re probably a 60 win team, at least. They may be young, but dismiss them at your peril, the Blazers are legit.
October 19th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
I picked Oden late in my fantasy draft – I hope he plays well :)
Nice recap, X.
October 19th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
I try not to read too much into offseason talk or preseason play, because most often it tells you nothing. It’s hard not to be impressed by Oden though. He looks much quicker and more fluid than he did last year. He’s going to have to cut down on his fouls, but if he stays on the floor, he could end up being really, really good this year.