Coach: Stan Van Gundy
2008-09 Record: 59-23
Pythagorean Record for 08-09: 59-23
Offensive Rating: 109.2 (11^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 101.9 (1^st)
Possessions per 48: 92.3 (12^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie) Click to enlarge

If you want to know how valuable Dwight Howard was on the defensive end last season, just look at who he played with. His frontcourt partners were Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Now, maybe you consider Lewis and Turkoglu defensive stalwarts, but I think you’re dead wrong in the minority. The only players on the roster other than Howard to have a rebound rate above 10 were backup centers Tony Battie and Marcin Gortat, and they didn’t even combine to play 2000 minutes. Despite that lack of help, Orlando was the second-best defensive rebounding team in the league. Also, despite having only Howard as a post defender and rim defender, opponents only shot 55.7% on shots close to the rim against the Magic, also second-best in the league. Wrap your minds around that for a moment. With Howard often being the only real big man on the floor, they were the second best team in the league at protecting the rim and grabbing opponents’ misses. That’s pretty incredible. Beyond his obvious offensive strengths (namely, throwing it down any time he catches within 5 feet of the rim), Howard’s defense allows them to play a guy like Lewis at power forward, which gives them that unique offense that they throw out.

Nobody really noticed because, well, that’s what happens when you go from a losing team to a winning team, but Lewis really hasn’t been all that great since coming over from Seattle (which makes his ridiculous contract look even sillier). He sees less touches, obviously, but he’s also less efficient, which is tough to figure out. Somehow, Lewis has shot worse and turned the ball over more since coming to Orlando, despite not having to handle nearly as large a load on offense. If he were on any other team, that contract would be a disaster, but his ability to space the floor around Howard makes him valuable to the Magic. Still, if he could approach those Seattle numbers even a little this season, it could go a long way toward helping this team to a title.

I know there’s a lot of differing opinions on the Vince Carter deal, but I think it was an absolute steal. Hedo Turkoglu got massively overrated because of one career year, and now people are saying he’s better than Vince Carter? Let’s stop pretending that Hedo was making Orlando a great offensive team, they were 11th in the league offensively last year. Carter immediately makes them  more explosive offensively. He’s a better finisher, a significantly better mid-range shooter, and turns the ball over a lot less. He’s not a great defender, but neither is Turkoglu, so they don’t really lose anything there. With Carter and a healthy Jameer Nelson, the Magic have two guys in the backcourt who can create their own shot, create for others, and shoot from deep.

I think we’ll eventually see Marcin Gortat traded, if not this season then within a few years. He’s just too good to play 10-15 minutes off the bench behind Howard (and he gets paid too much to do so). When he was on the floor, Gortat was the best backup center in the league. He’s a really active player, with soft hands and good touch around the rim, which makes him very effective on cuts or pick-and-rolls. He’s also a tremendous rebounder, and a good shotblocker. He’s a valuable enough commodity at a cheap enough price that some team is going to want him, and the Magic may be able to turn him into a valuable asset at another position.

I love the Brandon Bass acquisition (really, I love pretty much everything about this team’s offseason). He gives them a more traditional power forward who can move Rashard Lewis to the small forward spot every now and then. He’s also a good fit for their floor-spacing system because he’s a tremendous mid-range shooter (15th best in the league at two-point jumpers). The other thing that Bass is extremely good at, despite his penchant for mid-range jumpers, is drawing fouls. He’s quicker than most guys he goes up against, and with the threat of the jumper, he can usually get a step and draw the foul. Statistically, he’s not that much different than guys like Millsap or Marion, who got much bigger deals than he did.

X-Factor: Jameer Nelson – It’s easy to forget what a great season Nelson was having last year before his injury, especially since Orlando did so well even when he was out. He was excellent, posting career highs in all his shooting percentages and his assist rate, and a career low in turnover rate. He was as good as any point guard in the East for the first half of the year, and they really missed him in the playoffs (especially in the finals, against LA’s weak point guards). This year, his healthy return from injury is the key to the season. He’s probably not going to shoot as well again, those percentages were kind of fluky), but he’s still very effective. Just as importantly, his backups are really poor, so if he goes down again it’s going to have a strong effect. If Nelson stays healthy for the whole year and produces somewhere between his career averages and last year’s breakout, this team is going to be very, very good.

Overview

If it weren’t for Cleveland having that LeBron fellow, I’d be picking the Magic out of the East. I like that they didn’t sit by complacently after getting to the Finals. They could’ve re-signed Turkoglu, and declined to match the Gortat deal, and nobody would’ve been particularly angry. Keeping the core of a championship runner-up and staying financially sound would’ve been perfectly reasonable. Instead, they made bold moves. They can still play that “four out-one in” offense with Lewis at the PF, but they can also go more traditional with Bass at power forward and Lewis at small forward. You could maybe even play some with Howard and Gortat side-by-side, twin towers style. The only real weakness is the backups at point guard, and even that’s not a real big deal. Anthony Johnson is decent, and Carter can handle enough of the point guard duties that you could probably play him with Redick and be fine. Last year, it was a bit of a fluke that this team made it to the Finals, but the way they’ve reloaded this offseason, it won’t be a fluke if they get back there again.

2nd in the East -The Big Three