Coach: Larry Brown
2008-09 Record: 35-47
Pythagorean Record for 08-09: 37-45
Offensive Rating: 104.7 (27^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 106.1 (7^th)
Possessions per 48: 88.3 (27^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie) Click to enlarge

I don’t understand the rationale of trading for Tyson Chandler. He’s a worse player than Emeka Okafor both defensively and offensively, and he’s not cheaper over the next couple of years. Yes, his deal is shorter, but if you’re that concerned about freeing cap space, then you don’t do things like trade for Desagana Diop’s ridiculous contract. The team just doesn’t give the impression that they have much of a plan. As for Chandler, I think he’s going to be exposed this year. He’s looked good over the last few years because Chris Paul made him look good. There are, however, no Chris Pauls on the Charlotte roster, not even close. He’s a good defender, and he’ll contribute on the offensive glass, but all those pick-and-roll lobs he was getting in New Orleans are going to dry up, and that’s pretty much his only offensive skill.

Boris Diaw was much better after being traded to the Bobcats last year, though he still didn’t come close to the production of his breakout 05-06 season. Diaw is one of the league’s most unique players, an undersized power forward whose primary value comes from his passing ability. Diaw is a very versatile offensive player, but isn’t much of a scorer despite his array of moves. That’s because he’s unselfish to a fault, more often than not using his ball-handling and passing skills to set up his teammates, but also turning the ball over a good deal because he forces a lot of passes. Last season he showcased a much-improved three-point jumper, knocking down 41.4% from behind the arc. That’s WAY above his career average, so it’s unlikely he’ll shoot that well again, but if he can shoot in the mid-to-high 30s, he’s a much more dangerous offensive weapon. Defensively, he’s again extremely valuable for his versatility. He’s not a world-class defender at any one position, but his combination of strength, length and lateral quickness makes him a good defender against pretty much anyone, from centers to point guards. That’s kind of the essence of Diaw. He’s not great at anything, but he’s valuable because he’s good at so many things.

Just call Raymond Felton the anti-Chauncey Billups. Remember how I raved about Billups’ ability to score in the most efficient ways on the court, three-point shooting, layups and free throws? Well, Felton does none of those things. He’s a terrible three-point shooter (28.5%), a terrible finisher (47.1% on inside shots), and he doesn’t draw many fouls (draws fouls on only 7.8% of his shots). Felton is valuable because he’s a pretty solid defender, and does a pretty good job of distributing the ball. He’s not really a starting-caliber player, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see D.J. Augustin take over the starting job at some point this year. Felton will be a free agent after the season, and with Augustin in the fold it’s unlikely he’ll remain in Charlotte. He can be a very good backup point guard for some team, but he’s just not a good enough scorer to be a starter in this league.

It went almost entirely unnoticed, but Gerald Wallace had a tremendous season last year. He stayed on the floor for 71 games, only the 3rd time in his career that he’s played more than 70 games in a season, and he posted the highest offensive rating of his career. That came mostly because he abandoned shooting the three and attacked the rim with abandon, leading to an absurd rate of fouls drawn. 68% of his shots came right around the rim, which was the 16th highest rate in the league (he was the only non-post player in the top 28 in that category), and that allowed him to draw a foul on 20.4% of his shot attempts, the 4th highest rate in the league. He’s not a real skilled player, and not much of a shot creator, but his high energy level and explosive athleticism make him an effective penetrator and finisher. Though he had a career year offensively last year, it’s on the defensive end that Wallace really shines. He’s a great athlete and has good anticipation and timing, which makes him one of the best shot-blocking and ball-thieving wings in the game. While he tends to lose focus at times and wander when the ball is on the weakside, when he’s locked-in he’s tough to score on. In addition, he’s also a tremendous rebounder for his position, and regularly ranks among the league’s best rebounding wings. He’s certainly no top-tier star, and his reckless abandon is going to cause him to miss 10+ games a year, but Wallace’s relentless energy and athletic gifts make him the one real bright spot on Charlotte’s roster.

Over the next two years, Desagana Diop and Nazr Mohammed will make almost $26 mil between the two of them. Yeah, that’s not a typo or a joke, it’s just sad. I don’t know what possessed the Mavericks to sign Diop to the full mid-level extension a year ago, but I understand even less why Charlotte went out and traded for him.

X-Factor: D.J. Augustin – Given the severe lack of offensive options that the Bobcats have, Augustin has immense value to this team. In fact, he’s probably the best pure offensive weapon on Charlotte’s roster, even though he’s only entering his second year. He’s a tremendous shooter, and, given his size, he needs to be. He actually almost shot a higher percentage from deep (43.9%) than he did around the rim (46.6%). Because so much of his offense comes from the perimeter, I was a little surprised to see that he actually draws fouls at a pretty decent clip (1:2.7 FTA:FGA ratio). It’s also a little surprising that his assist ratio was fairly low, since he was a pretty good assist guy in college. That should improve if he better learns how to get his shot off in the lane, and his ability to drive becomes more of a threat. If Augustin can win the starting point guard job, he should make them a significantly better offensive team.

Overview

The Bobcats are firmly entrenched in what I like to call the “ugh” zone (or, as I called it in my conference overview, The Wasteland). They have enough mediocre veterans that they can’t get an impact draft pick, and they don’t have young guys with the potential to be real stars. They aren’t good enough to be of any real consequence, but they aren’t bad enough to allow them any real improvement. They may make the playoffs this year, since Larry Brown is a great defensive coach. That would be big for the franchise, I suppose, since they’ve never made the playoffs, but it’s not like they’re going to come anywhere close to winning a playoff series. I just don’t think they have a clear plan in the front office. What’s the plan for the future? Are they going to build around Augustin and Gerald Henderson? If you’re as devoid of young talent as the Bobcats are, you should be either really good, really bad, or have a lot of cap space. Charlotte checks none of those boxes, they’re just…ugh.

12th in the East -The Wasteland