Coach: Mike Dunleavy
2008-09 Record: 19-63
Pythagorean Record for 08-09: 18-64
Offensive Rating: 102.3 (30^th in the league)
Defensive Rating: 111.7(27^th)
Possessions per 48: 92.1 (13^th)
Four Factors:

Roster (Red indicates new acquisition, Blue indicates rookie) Click to enlarge

Eric Gordon may, in just his second season, be the best player on this team. Gordon’s performance went mostly overlooked last year, as he toiled away on the awful, awful Clippers, but he was arguably just as good as Derrick Rose. Outside of Michael Beasley, Gordon might be the best pure scorer in his draft class. His best asset is his jumper, which he knocks down at a high rate (38.9% 3FG last year) and has a lightning quick release on. The threat of that shot allows him to beat guys off the dribble and get into the lane, even though he isn’t super-quick. He is, however, really strong, and that makes him a strong finisher despite his lack of size at the SG position. He doesn’t do much in the midrange, mostly opting to either shoot away from deep, or drive to the rim to finish or draw the foul. Though he’s playing shooting guard, the closest comparison for Gordon may be Chauncey Billups, with his strength, shooting, and ability to draw fouls. Given Gordon’s height (6′3), it wouldn’t surprise me if his role eventually winds up being as a Billups-type scoring point guard.

Poor, poor Blake Griffin. We were all having a grand time joking around about how the Clippers Curse would strike, and Griffin’s poor knees were in trouble. Then it actually happened. He actually fractured his kneecap. It’s obviously not the Clippers’ fault, it was fluky, but still…It’s things like this that make people believe in Karma.  So now, Clippers fans (both of them) will have to wait about 6 weeks to see the debut of their #1 pick.

I was so sure Al Thornton was going to be a good NBA player. He was so good at Florida State. A hard worker and great athlete who looked like he was finally getting it offensively in his last couple of years. Well, I was wrong. Thornton is, in fact, an awful player. Really, he’s terrible. He has no feel for the game, no concept of what a good shot is, no grasp of defensive rotations. He takes lots and lots of long jumpers, and makes very few of them. Given his raw athleticism, it’s disappointing to watch him hoist up jumper after jumper, especially since he’s actually decent when he uses those hops to rebound or finish around the rim. When I wrote about Andris Biedrins, I talked about how important it is to know your role, what your strengths and weaknesses are. Thornton has no concept of his strengths and weaknesses, and it makes him a very poor player. He’ll probably start for most of the year again, since the Clips don’t have many other options, but it’s possible that Rasual Butler will end up taking the starting job from him if he continues to play so out of control.

When Griffin comes back, it’s going to be interesting to see how everyone’s minutes fall out. Until then though, the Clippers are going to throw their “twin towers” out and play them both for 30+ minutes each game. Those twin towers would, of course, be Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby, possibly the most fragile duo of 7-footers ever. Kaman missed almost all of last season, and will look to regain his form this year. He’s a pretty talented post scorer, though he’s a bit mechanical. His sheer size and ability to finish with either hand makes him an effective scorer when he catches around the rim. His big problem is that he turns the ball over at an extremely high rate, far too high for any big man, much less a big man who isn’t a feature scorer. If Kaman wants to be a solid starting center in the NBA, he’s going to have to deal with double teams better, and be more careful with putting the ball on the floor. Camby is just as fragile as Kaman; he missed 20 games last season and has never played all 82 games in a season. Still, he’s been a little more resilient over the last few years, and even at 35, he’s still one of the league’s best defenders. I’ve often debated the merits of Camby’s defense, and while I acknowledge that there are things he doesn’t do well, the fact is that he’s such a good shotblocker and rebounder that it doesn’t really matter. Camby regularly ranks among the league leaders in blocks, rebounds and charges drawn (the “holy trinity” of defensive statistics for big men, if you will), and he does it while rarely getting in foul trouble. Last year, the Clippers’ defensive rating was 8.5 points better when Camby was on the floor, the second-best mark in the league. You can argue that he doesn’t guard physical post players as well, and you’d be right, but he’s such a dominant help defender and rebounder that he doesn’t need to be.

X-Factor: Baron Davis – I wrote it in my Western Conference Overview, as Davis goes, so go the Clippers. With all the players on this team looking to get their touches, it becomes paramount to have a point guard who can get the ball to the right guy, and that falls to Davis. I’ve long maintained that Davis, by physical talent alone, should’ve been one of the greatest point guards of all time. He has all the tools you would want in a lead guard. He’s quick, strong, has good size, is a great leaper, has good court vision, keeps the ball on a string, and has a good shooting stroke. All the physical tools are there, but the drive isn’t. Throughout his career, Davis has shown a lack of consistent effort, a tendency to miss games with small, lingering injuries, and a propensity to shoot bad shots. When he puts it together like he did his last two years in Golden State, he’s brilliant, the kind of player who is capable of winning a playoff series almost single-handedly. When he’s sleep-walking though the season, like he did last year, he hurts more than he helps with his propensity to chuck up terrible shots. LA has no options behind him at point guard (unless you have confidence in Bassy Telfair…), so if they’re actually going to contend for a playoff spot this year, they need the good Baron, and they need him to stay healthy.

Overview

A lot of experts like the Clippers this year. Several people even picked them to make the playoffs. I am decidedly less optimistic. Yes, Blake Griffin is very good. He’s extremely  talented and should be an All-Star caliber player within a few years. However, Griffin is not going to save this team immediately (especially not with his recent injury). Remember, Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley had two of the greatest seasons college basketball has seen in decades, and though they were good their rookie years, they weren’t great right out of the gate. It takes time people. The Clippers are abysmal at the small forward position, their two centers are both injury-prone, and who knows what they’re going to get from Baron Davis. Davis has to be great this season for them to be a playoff team, and I’m not going to bet on that. They also break my personal “Ricky Davis Rule”, which states that if you have a player on your team who once shot at his own basket in an attempt to get a triple-double , I am not inclined to pick your team to do well.

11th in the West -Dysfunction Junction